Light Snow Causing a Few Slick Spots Friday Morning

Light snow continues to move southeast Friday morning as an area of low pressure moves across Iowa. While the snow will be light, a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch will be possible.

Temperatures are currently in the teens and low 20s across much of the area allowing the snow to easily stick to the roads. IDOT is reporting some roads across much of northern Illinois, specifically over Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Lee counties becoming slick. Take it slow on

the drive this morning. The light snow will continue through late morning, tapering off to flurries over the next couple of hours. Drier air moving in will allow skies to turn partly cloudy for this afternoon. 

Bitterly Cold End to the Work Week, Warm Days to Follow

It's been quite a common theme during the month of February where we get those short-lived cold stints, followed by much warmer days. That is the case as we enter the second half of the work week. Colder air wrapping around the departing winter storm that now has it's eyes set for New England will drop our high temperatures about 10°-15° below average right before we get another taste of spring.

If you think about it, half of the lower 48 this morning is still being influenced by the strong low that is hovering over New England. Many out east are waking up to moderate to heavy snow, while we are waking up to yet another cold start. Winds out of the northwest and west overnight continued to advect or filter in a cold Canadian air mass into the region. Temps to start are falling into the 20s, wind chills are registering even lower in the single digits. Don't forget to layer up before heading off to school or work. In fact, wind chills will struggle to make it out of the teens this afternoon, despite highs climbing into the 30s. So, it's important that you stay bundled up if you have to be out for a prolonged period of time.

Our Thursday features a mix of clouds and sun with a slight chance for a passing flurry or two. The best chance to see snowflakes will be more towards sunrise tomorrow morning as a weak clipper system swings to the southwest of the area. Little to no accumulations are expected, but something that might slow you down during the early commute tomorrow. The rest of our Friday will remain fairly dry thanks to an area of high pressure to our northwest. Cloud cover during the morning will give way to some afternoon sunshine. Highs will once again end up  about 10° below average, climbing into the upper 20s.

As the trend goes, this short lived cold stint will be followed a by a taste of Spring just in time for the first day of meteorological spring (March 1st). The jet stream will begin to lift northward starting Saturday, which will allow a surge of very warm air to filter into the Stateline area. Highs will go from the low 30s on Saturday, to close to 50° by Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a system will slide a warm front through the Stateline by Sunday afternoon, switching our winds to the southwest and allowing the warmth to commence. This system will also bring a slight chance for some patchy drizzle/light rain late Sunday night into Monday. Overall, the 40s will continue into the middle of next week!

Spring Temperatures on the Rise as our Climate Continues to Change

This Sunday, March 1st, is the beginning of Meteorological Spring, the 3 month period of March, April and May. It's also the season that we typically see the greatest changes occur in our weather. From snowstorms to warmth, chills to heat, there can be some large swings with the weather during that time.

However, as our climate continues to warm the seasons are also showing signs of warming. A slow and steady climb in Spring average Winter season is actually the fastest warming season not only for Rockford and northern Illinois, but also for much of the country. The warming during the 3 month Spring season means there are about 10 more days where temperatures are above average since the 1970s.

temperatures have been noted since the 1970s in Rockford, with an overall warming trend of a little over two degrees. While noticeably cooler periods have been observed over the last 50 years, there has also been a noticeable warming trend. The

The impact of the warming Spring season also means that the Spring last freeze is occurring earlier and earlier in the season. On average, northern Illinois's last Spring freeze occurs Climate Central of 195 cities, 80% of those cities across the United States showed a shift in the last freeze occurring more than a week earlier than it did nearly 50 years ago.

within the last week to week and a half of April. It's occurred as early as April 7th in Rockford, and as last as May 27th. The last Spring freeze is a good marker for the beginning of the growing season. According to analysis done by

More days above freezing may also mean the allergy season is shifting as well, beginning earlier and ending later than what it has before in the past. Warmer days also mean warm seasonal pests, such as mosquitoes and ticks, are present for longer periods of times. Bird migration, hibernation and even blooming flowers can all be affected by a warming climate. 

A warmer environment also means the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture, leading to more precipitation.. For every one degree the atmosphere warms, it is able to hold 4 percent more water vapor. This means that the atmosphere is being given the 'potential' for more heavy rain producing storms. Average monthly rainfall towards the latter half of Spring and beginning of Summer generally increases, with June being our wettest month (on average) in Rockford. The increasing rainfall, especially during the growing or harvest season, can have detrimental effects on farmers and on natural resources.

It's important to understand how greenhouse gas emissions are impacting our climate, where those emissions are mostly coming from and what we can do to help lower those emissions. As the climate continues to change, our seasons will continue be altered and this could have significant impacts on all of us.

Scattered Flurries Possible through Wednesday Evening

A majority of Wednesday evening will remain dry, but a few scattered snow flurries can't be ruled out as the pattern aloft remains a little unsettled. Light, to at times moderate, snow fell Tuesday evening southeast of Rockford and continued through Wednesday morning and early afternoon. A little further north and northwest, enough dry air was present to allow some of the cloud cover to break apart bringing a few peeks of sunshine during the afternoon.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy through the overnight with a little sunshine expected during the afternoon Thursday. As a few weak upper level disturbances, mini low pressure systems, move through the western Great Lakes during the day light flurries, or even a brief light snow shower or two, will be possible. No accumulation is expected. The chance for flurries will continue into Friday before drier air and high pressure move in for the weekend. This will allow temperatures to warm as southwest winds increase Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will climb from the mid 30s on Saturday, into the upper 40s by Sunday.

Light Snow Continues Tuesday Evening

Light and steady snow showers continue to fall mainly southeast of Rockford Tuesday evening lowering visibility down between 3-5 miles from Rochelle to DeKalb. Most of the snow through the evening will remain southeast of Rockford with minor accumulations of up to an inch by Wednesday morning.

Bands of moderate snow will be possible over parts of Lee, Ogle and DeKalb counties which may drop visibility as low as a mile throughout

the night. The snow will last through sunrise Wednesday before tapering off as it shifts east and southeast through the morning. A few slick spots on the roads, especially to the southeast of Rockford, will be possible for the early morning commute. Further north flurries and light snow will also be likely with minimal accumulations expected.

Light Snow Chances Overnight As Heavier Snow Remains South

If you are a snow-lover, this winter has been a tough one for you. Observations at the Rockford International Airport show that we've recorded 19.8" of snow since December 1st. That's well below the average up to February 25th, and well below our snowfall total at this point last year. The good news is, for those that are tired of snow, it looks like the southward trend in the storm's track will likely keep the worst of the wintry weather to the south. yesterday featured a significant shift in this upcoming storms track which also shifted the heaviest snowfall totals to the south of the Stateline.

For that reason, the National Weather Service yesterday cancelled the Winter Storm Watch that was in place for all of our counties in the viewing area. As of Tuesday morning, all the winter alerts are in place for areas south and east of the Stateline. One being a winter weather advisory that is in effect for places like Chicago, Peoria, Joliet, and Champaign-Urbana. We also have a Winter Storm Watch then extends through northern Indiana into southeast Michigan.


What does that mean for us? While snow flies across central Illinois, the Stateline looks to remain pretty far removed from the main event once again. Today will feature overcast skies, windy and chilly conditions. Highs this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 30s. Might be a good idea to grab the winter coat before heading out, strong northeasterly winds will hold our  wind chills into the upper teens and low 20s. There might be enough moisture that streams in to form areas of  patchy drizzle/flurries this afternoon and evening. Overall, most of our day should remain on the dry side. The winds however will stick around with us into tonight. Wind gusts pushing 25 to 30 mph could make for a shaky drive home later today. 

Later this evening, as the secondary surface low pressure strengthens and moves across the Midwest, returning the chances for snow showers. As we mentioned, the track of the main surface low has trended well to the south, bringing portions of central Illinois and northern Indiana the heaviest snow totals. For the Stateline, a more steady snow is likely to fall south of I-80, but portions of Lee and DeKalb Counties could still see a slushy inch. North of I-88, generally a dusting to about a half an inch looks more likely. While snow looks to remain on the lighter side locally, it could still be enough to lead to slick spots for Wednesday early commute. Be sure to give yourself a bit of extra time and plan for a slower commute. By the mid to late morning hours, any lingering show showers or flurries will taper off leaving the rest of our Wednesday with cloudy skies and windy conditions. By the second half of our Wednesday, road conditions should have improved immensely leading to a smoother evening commute.

Winter Storm Watch Canceled for Remainder of the Stateline

The Winter Storm Watch that had been issued for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties has been canceled. Earlier Monday afternoon watches for southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois were dropped due to a significant shift in the storm track to the south, over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Because of that shift, the highest snow totals now look to fall more from near Chicago (due to lake effect) to along and south of I-80.

Most of Monday evening and overnight will remain dry due to strong northeast winds bringing dry air into northern Illinois. As precipitation across central Illinois tries to lift north it is encountering the drier air and fizzling out. Moisture will continue to increase through the night and that may lead to a few light showers across southern Whiteside, Lee and DeKalb counties through early Tuesday. No impacts to the morning commute Tuesday are expected and even the evening commute may have minimal impacts, as well.

Temperatures during the day Tuesday will warm above freezing, remaining in the mid 30s for much of the afternoon. Any snow that would fall may actually mix with light rain during the afternoon, not accumulating much on the surface throughout the day. Temperatures will cool below freezing Tuesday evening and night with a few light snow showers continuing into Wednesday. While some light snow may be coming down Wednesday morning, impacts to the morning commute are also expected to remain minimal. Even though the watches have been canceled, it doesn't mean we won't still see some light snow. There will still be some minor accumulations Tuesday evening, into Wednesday morning, but the impacts won't be as much as it originally looked. 

Next Winter Storm Showing Signs of Shifting South

The Winter Storm Watch for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties has been canceled, along with Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin. Latest model guidance continued to show a southward shift in the heaviest and highest snow totals Monday morning and afternoon, placing areas like Chicago (lake-effect) and central Illinois inline for the heaviest snowfall Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.

The Winter Storm Watch continues for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb and McHenry counties, however, this is due to the potential impact to the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commute, rather than for high snow totals. Temperatures Tuesday will remain above freezing for much of the afternoon most likely making it difficult for snow to really stick to the ground until temperatures cool Tuesday evening and overnight. Northeast winds are still expected to increase during the evening, and through Wednesday morning with some blowing and drifting snow being a concern.

Dry Monday Ahead of Next Snow Maker

Talk about a textbook "Living in the Midwest" type forecast. Especially when we go from 50s and sunshine to 30s and snow in just a short time span. Fortunately, before we start talking about possible the most "significant" storm system of the winter, Monday looks to remain dry.

Our morning began with mostly clear skies, but cloud cover was certainly quick to increase turning our skies mostly cloudy before sunrise. This allowed temperatures to only slowly cool into the upper 20s-low 30s. A huge improvement and quite impressive for late February, especially since we recorded lows in the single digits twice last week. Despite the increase in cloud cover, most of the area does remain dry through much of our Monday. Models do suggest that a few spotty areas of drizzle and showers slide northward into close to I-88. High temperatures this afternoon will climb close to the 40° mark which mean . As temperatures cool into tonight, a few flakes cannot be ruled out, but this shouldn't lead to much in terms of accumulation into early Tuesday.

Earlier this morning, the National Weather Service began to observe a southward trend in the models regarding the storm systems track. For that reason, they took Green County out of the Winter Storm Watch. The rest of viewing area is at the moment is still under that watch which will go into effect tomorrow morning at 9 AM for most counties. Under the Winter Storm Watch, it hold the potential for 6" or more of snowfall. However, the higher snowfall totals will all depend on how much farther south model guidance takes this storm system. Around sunrise Tuesday morning, light flurries and snow showers are possible. However, snow isn't likely to pick up in intensity or coverage until late Tuesday morning into the early-afternoon. Highs in the middle 30s are expected to result in mostly a slushy accumulation on roads. As temperatures drop, expect road conditions to gradually deteriorate.

The BIGGEST uncertainty with our potential snow storm is the how models are handling the track. One model that has been set on the heaviest snow totals occurring right here at home was the GFS or the Global Forecasting System. Up until this morning, this particular model had the low tracking right through southern Illinois and Indiana, placing the deformation bands or stronger snow bands right over the Stateline.

The latest run of the GFS has trended more towards the Euro or the European model which has been consistent with the southerly trend throughout the past couple days. This has focused the heavier snowfall totals now towards central Illinois stretching northeastward into the Chicago metro and northwest Indiana. As of this morning, thinking at the time suggested that 4'-8" for the Rockford area would be ideal. But with the southerly trend in mind, we have downgraded the snow totals to 3'-6". As stated above, the storm system's track is KEY! Regardless of snow totals, keep in mind impacts are going to remain the same: a long-duration snow event in which travel is going to become dangerous as heavy snow falls during the evening commute Tuesday through the morning commute on Wednesday.

Significant Snow Possible Tuesday into Wednesday

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for all of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois ahead of what could be this winter's biggest snowfall yet. Two low pressure systems will work together spreading rain across much of southern and central Illinois Monday afternoon and evening, before lifting into northern Illinois Monday night.

Skies will remain mostly clear through Sunday evening after temperatures warmed into the low

to mid 50s during the afternoon! Cloud cover will increase during the overnight leaving skies mostly cloudy by Monday morning. Dry air overhead during the day Monday will keep us mostly dry, but as moisture increases from the south during the evening and overnight light rain showers will be possible across parts of Whiteside, Lee and DeKalb counties. Cooler air will settle in from the north as northeast winds increase by Tuesday morning. This will allow rain showers to mix with, and eventually changeover to, snow during the morning and continue into the afternoon and evening.

The snow Tuesday could be heavy at times, especially through the evening, likely having an impact on the commute Tuesday. Those impacts could last into Wednesday morning. Northeast winds will also increase throughout the day Tuesday with blowing and drifting snow possible heading into Tuesday evening. The overall track of the low will determine where the heaviest falls, but as of Sunday evening that potential looks to fall very close to, if not over, northern Illinois and parts of southern Wisconsin. Within

the heaviest snow, totals could approach six inches or more. Strong lift in the atmosphere tied to the upper level low may even be enough to push snow totals into the double digits when all said and done, but that would be over a very localized area. Right now, it looks like most should receive between 5-9 inches of snow. 

It's important to note that there was a slight shift south in a couple of the forecast models Sunday, placing the heaviest snowfall just to the south of the immediate area. Should the southern track hold the highest snow totals would likely fall along and south of the I-88 corridor Tuesday into Wednesday. However, if the low moves through central Illinois then the heaviest snow would come down across northern Illinois and south-central Wisconsin.

In some places Tuesday morning there may be an inch of snow on the ground, but the morning commute shouldn't be too impacted. If the current forecast hold, conditions would deteriorate during the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening, likely lasting through Wednesday morning.

Winter Storm Watch Issued for Parts of the Stateline

 UPDATE: All northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin counties are now under the Winter Storm Watch.










A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties beginning Monday evening, lasting through Wednesday afternoon and for Green, Rock and Walworth counties beginning Tuesday morning.

A powerful storm system will begin moving east and northeast Sunday evening and Monday, spreading mostly rain across central and southern Illinois Monday morning and afternoon. As the low moves closer to Illinois Monday evening, a wintry mix will be possible across parts of northern Illinois before switching to mostly snow overnight, into Tuesday morning. Snow will likely continue throughout much of Tuesday and Tuesday evening before gradually coming to an end by Wednesday afternoon.

Several inches of snow are likely across much of the area, with the potential for some places to receive over half a foot of snow by Wednesday morning. Travel will most likely be impacted overnight Monday through Wednesday morning as a heavy, wet snow is expected to fall. Updates to the forecast will continue through Sunday afternoon and evening, along with possible snowfall amounts, so be sure to check back!

Storm System to Follow Weekend Warmup

After reaching a high of 48 degrees in Rockford on Saturday, 11 degrees warmer than the normal high for February 22, one more day of unseasonably warm temperatures will be followed by a system of snow and rain showers with accumulating snowfall likely.

Persistent southerly winds have allowed the Stateline to continually warm through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Sunday will be no exception with temperatures expected to reach the lower 50’s over most of the area. All the while, a storm system has been quickly intensifying over Southern California and will continue to propagate northeastward through the Plains and into the Midwest. From Sunday evening through Monday morning, winds are expected to from southwesterly to northeasterly as they chase the approaching storm system. This will advect cold air into the region and begin a gradual cooldown. 

The system will be approaching from the south with scattered showers reaching Whiteside, Lee, and southern DeKalb counties as early as Monday afternoon. As the precipitation fills in, rain will likely transition into a rain/snow mix by the mid-evening and into all snowfall for the overnight hours. Rain and snow will continue to fall through Tuesday afternoon before precipitation will transition into entirely snowfall for the reminder of the storm’s impact on the Stateline. The chance for snow flurries will gradually decrease through the day on Wednesday with the snow expected to come to an end sometime late Wednesday evening. By Thursday, high temperatures will fall into the mid-20’s.

Snowfall amounts are very uncertain at this time though accumulating snowfall is likely over the entire Stateline area.