Next Round of Rain Arrives Today, Strong Storms Possible

First off, welcome everyone to the Vernal Equinox! I don't know if your excited that it's the first day of spring, but I surely am. 

That's right, spring is finally here. Well, not officially. Spring doesn't officially begin until the clock strikes 10:49 tonight. What's more fitting is that the forecast for the first day of spring features a chance for thunderstorms. Some of which could be strong to severe. Now, our Thursday is kicking off with a blanket of dense fog across the Stateline. Cloud cover hovering overhead last night trapped plenty of moisture towards the surface. This allowed the moisture to condense into the fog we are seeing this morning. Most spots as we prepare to head out are registering visibility less than 1 mile. With that said, if you have to traveling, please take your time. Be sure to use those low-bean headlights.

Timing Out the Rain:

Our first batch of rain today will arrive during the mid-day hours ahead of a lifting warm front. As the warm front lifts northwards, a shield of moderate to heavy rain will track northward into northern Illinois late this morning, lasting into the mid-afternoon hours. There may be a few embedded thunderstorms with this first batch, but heavy rainfall would be the biggest threat.

Once this first round showers and thunderstorms lifts northward, we'll see a few hours, mainly between 4-7 PM, that will feature dry conditions. This will give the atmosphere some time to recover or re-energize. Depending on how much the atmosphere recovers will determine what type of atmosphere or environment will be around for the main wave. Another component to watch will be the position of the warm front. Models this morning were slightly south with the position of the warm front and the track of the deepening low.

When will Storms Reach Our Area?
This low pressure system will track northeastward into central and northeast Iowa late this afternoon and evening. Isolated or scattered thunderstorms will develop in a more unstable air mass ahead of the surface low, and south of the warm front. These areas, specifically in northern Missouri and southern Iowa, have been highlighted under an enhanced risk for severe weather (level 3 of 5). All severe hazards will be possible in the enhanced risk. Closer to home, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the entire viewing area to a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather.

Once these storms develop, they will track northeastward towards the Stateline, entering our region between 6-11 PM. Our biggest concerns will be heavy downpours underneath these thunderstorms & damaging winds. Temperatures ahead of a strong cold front is going to warm into the mid to upper 50s, close to 60 degrees in a few spots. Rainfall-wise, it looks like most spots will end up between .50" to 1" of rainfall by Friday morning. This strong cold front will also put an end to our shower chances after midnight, leaving us with mostly cloudy skies by sunrise tomorrow morning.