Meteorological Fall Ends on Cold Note, Wind Chills in the Teens

Sunday's cold front brought us back to reality, as the coldest air of the season (so far) filters in right before the official start of Meteorological Winter. For those that are getting back into their normal routines, they'll need to layer up before beginning the upcoming school or work week. 

Gusty northwesterly winds behind the front helped pull in that very cold air mass overnight, allowing temperatures to sink into the upper 20s and low 30s this morning. Wind chills dropped into the teens at times over far northwest Illinois, with the rest of the region sitting in the low 20s. Before stepping out the door, don't forget to put on your winter jacket, as well as your hat, gloves, and scarf to stay warm.

Cloud cover Monday morning remains thick and widespread, as a vast amount of moisture continues to pivot around a strong mid-latitude cyclone that's currently over the Tennessee Valley. In addition to this morning's cloud cover, I wouldn't be surprised if you encountered a few snowflakes during your morning travels. Thankfully, these flurries/light snow showers should come to an end by the late morning hours, as conditions become much drier by the afternoon. As an area of high pressure approaches, skies will gradually clear, leading to some sunshine before days end.

In spite of increasingly sunny skies, high temperatures to kick off the work week will  struggle to climb much above freezing. In addition to the below average highs, northwest winds will continue to remain strong into the afternoon, gusting up to 25-30 mph. Winds these strong will make traveling difficult for some, especially on north and south roadways. So if you're planning to travel today, be sure to take extra caution. These winds will ease up a bit by Monday evening, but a lingering breeze overnight will help wind chills fall back into the upper teens by Tuesday morning. With that being said, place your heavier coat somewhere where it will be easily accessible for tomorrow morning.

Winds increase following cold front Sunday evening; Wind chills in the teens Monday morning

 

A cold front passed through the Great Lakes Sunday afternoon as a clipper type system moved in from the northwest. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures on Sunday were able to warm into the mid and upper 40s. Clouds did increase, however, Sunday afternoon as the front approached with winds quickly shifting around to the northwest once the front passed.

Temperatures have been falling across portions of northwest Illinois with readings down in the mid 30s. As the winds increase, at times gusting close to 30 mph, wind chills have fallen into the low to mid 20s.

Our skies will remain cloudy through much of Sunday night and into Monday as a rather large area of low pressure works up from the South, moving up the East Coast. As that larger low moves east, another low will continue to dive southeast across Wisconsin and Illinois. As it does, it's possible that there may be just enough moisture to squeeze out a few snow flurries for parts of the area during the overnight.  

Lake effect snow showers will then be likely Monday for portions of northwest Indiana, as well as right along the lake shores of Chicago as gusty northwest winds come roaring down Lake Michigan. Further east, heavy snow will fall on the other side of the Great Lakes while rain showers move up the eastern seaboard. Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for most of western Ohio, down through eastern Kentucky and downwind of Lake Erie from northeast Ohio into Pennsylvania.

Closer to home our skies remain cloudy Monday as the back edge of the low pressure system impacts the western Great Lakes. As temperatures Monday morning fall into the mid 20s, wind chills will also take a tumble dropping into the teens in most locations. It's possible that a few spots across far northwest Illinois could dip into the single digits! Wind chills throughout the afternoon Monday will likely rise only to the mid 20s as the high temperature reaches the low to mid 30s. The wind will ease up a bit Monday night but wind chills into Tuesday could also fall into the upper teens. We should see more sunshine during the afternoon Tuesday as high pressure moves closer. 

Mild Weekend, Cool Week, Dry All Around

After more than a week of warmer-than-normal temperatures, the month will end and December will begin on a much cooler note though conditions should remain dry.

Through Saturday, only 5 of the 28 days thus far in November were spent on the cooler side of average. The other 23 were warmer than their daily normal with 9 days being anywhere from 15° to 25° warmer than normal. This November has also failed to see any highs in the 30’s through the 28^th. Only one November on record, November 2001, has seen highs in the 40’s or higher for all 30 days of the month. This puts this November on track to be the third warmest on record behind only November 2001 and that of 1931.

Thanksgiving week certainly contributed to this month’s credentials to be one of the warmest in recorded history with highs in Rockford in the middle to upper 40’s through the week and a high of 52° on Saturday. Strong high pressure system to our south brought warm, southerly flow to the area on Saturday providing, with the help of plenty of sunshine, a beautiful start to the weekend. A bit of midlevel moisture advection will cause clouds to build up a bit through Saturday night and into Sunday morning leaving the Stateline with a good mix of clouds and blue sky on Sunday. A cold front will move through the area from the northwest in the early afternoon on Sunday kicking off a big cooldown to begin the new work week on Monday. The timing of the front and added cloud cover should keep temperatures a bit cooler on Sunday though highs in the middle to upper 40’s are likely.

As this front passes over the Stateline, it will bring strong, and cold, northwesterly winds into the area plummeting our temperatures down into the lower 30’s for Monday. This will break our streak of no highs in the 30’s for the month. However, one high in the 30’s through the entire month of November is still a rarity having only occurred three times on record. Monday also kicks off a pattern change in our jet stream which will help to keep conditions cool through the week. Whereas our jet stream has been sitting comfortably to our north for some time, a deep upper level trough will move into the Midwest pulling the jet stream to our south and dragging lots of cold air down into the region from the north. Though flow within the jet stream becomes more zonal through the week, it will remain to our south keeping the cooler air flowing in through the week. Temperatures, however, appear to slowly recover through the week getting back to near seasonable by Wednesday and hopefully back on the warmer side of normal by the weekend.

In the meantime, after a dry November in the Stateline, conditions look to remain dry as we head into December. Through the 28^th, Rockford has fallen 0.64” shy of the normal month to date precipitation total of 2.42”. However, if it weren’t for the storm system that brought Rockford the 1.06” of precipitation on the 24^th and 25^th, the month would be nearly 2 inches shy of average having received measurable precipitation only 4 of the month’s 28 days so far. This dry pattern will continue as we end this month and head into the next. The cold front moving in on Monday will not have a sufficient amount of moisture to provide a decent chance for rain or snow. Following the frontal passage, high pressure will dominate the region at the surface keeping conditions dry and keeping dynamics necessary to produce rain or snow at a minimal. A large trough will do the same in the middle and upper levels of our atmosphere. Through the first weekend of December, there appear to be no reasonable chances for precipitation here in the Stateline at the time of publication. Though a couple of storm systems  are forecast to move through the Midwest, they are expected to miss the Stateline to the south and east. Overall, it appears you can expect the first week of December to feel quite a bit like the holiday season, but look like it, not so much.