Accumulating Snow Likely Tuesday Morning, Dry & Mild for Thanksgiving

Thankfully, all remained quiet across the Stateline over the weekend. With a high pressure system in control, it made it a little difficult for any rain chances to creep northward from the south. Similar to Saturday and Sunday, sunshine is also featured in the forecast for the start of the work week. But that will give way to a storm system that arrives overnight, bringing the Stateline's first shot at accumulating snowfall by Tuesday morning.

As of this writing, our next disturbance is moving over the Central Plains, bringing a wintry mix to places like Topeka, KS, and Kansas City, Missouri. Ahead of this strong disturbance, high pressure will remain in control. Temperatures, under plenty of sunshine, will reach the low to mid 40s, which is actually where we should be at this point in the year. As our next system approaches from the west-southwest, clouds will be on the increase beginning Monday night, with snow not too far behind. 

The majority of our Monday night will be dry, with temperatures falling below freezing, then slowly rising into towards day-break Tuesday morning. Hi-res models show light snow falling by about 2-3AM, becoming heavier by the start of the morning commute. This could slow you down a bit as you're head out onto the roads, as there may be reduce visibility at times. Roads may be a little too warm for accumulations to occur, but just be on the lookout for a few slick spots while traveling to your destination. As temperatures rise throughout the morning, snow will begin to mix in with some sleet/rain, before changing over to all rain by Tuesday afternoon.

Overall, any accumulations will most likely be confined to grassy surfaces. Most spots look to pick up a slushy 1-3" of snow when it is all said and done, with higher totals expected for areas in southern and central Wisconsin. Any snow that does fall Tuesday morning will more than likely melt away by the evening as temperatures, and dew points, rise above freezing. Rainfall will also help get rid of this quick burst of snowfall, as rain looks to stick around into the middle of the work week. But we do have some good news when it comes to the upcoming holiday. Models track this system out of the region right before the Thanksgiving, allowing for dry conditions to settle back in. 

Once tomorrow's strong system pushes off to the towards the Ohio Valley, warm southwest winds will pull warmer air into the region just in time for Turkey Day. Higher up in the atmosphere, the jet stream will lift to our north as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. What this will do is keep away any disturbances that do manage to develop by tracking them to our north and west. Under a mix of clouds and sunshine, temperatures during the afternoon will climb into the low 50s, which is considered above average for this time of year.