Stubborn Clouds Stick Around, Few Flurries Possible

What a difference a week makes. Last Wednesday, Rockford observed record warmth, posting a high of 55°. That just was enough to beat the previous record of 54° set back in 1930 and 1939. High temperatures this time around are going to end up closer to average, in the low 30s. If you're trying to do the math, the difference between last Wednesday's high and what we're going to see today results in a 20° to 25° difference. If it were up to me, I'd take last Wednesday's weather. But with the winter months comes cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and of course the chance to see snow. Although most of the snow associated with the developing nor'easter will remain to our south and east, the Stateline does have the opportunity to see a few flakes fly. 

Models have been very consistent with the surface low passing well to the southeast of the Stateline early this afternoon. But since we are on the very northern fringe of this developing system, moisture swinging around the surface low will result in more cloud cover, and the possibility to see a few isolated flurries. Hi-res models show a few flurries popping up shortly after mid-day, with chances continuing into the mid to late afternoon hours. No accumulations are expected for the Stateline, but areas to the south and east may pick up a quick inch or two before the system pulls away from the region. The combination of today's cloud cover and chilly northeasterly wind will result in highs in the low 30s. This is right around average for this time of year. I'd still have an extra layer on if you plan to be out and about this afternoon, as wind chills will remain in the mid to upper 20s. 

Shifting gears to the nor'easter, winter storm warnings are set to go into effect this morning for many across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The atmospheric set up is top notch for some areas enclosed in these winter storm warnings to see about a foot or two of snow by Thursday morning. You have a Canadian high perched to the north of upstate New York. The placement of this high pressure system has allowed cold Canadian air to spill across the northern half of the east coast.

As this nor'easter tracks to the northeast and encounters this colder air, moderate to heavier bands of snow will result. Some places along the eastern seaboard could also get a chance to witness thundersnow, especially underneath the strongest convective bands. Models this morning continue to show portions of central and northeastern Pennsylvania being the "sweet spots" for where you'll see the most snow from this event. It's been quite some time, in fact a few years since the east coast had to prepare for a nor'easter of this magnitude. But I can tell you this, places to the east of us will see more snow over the next 24 hours than Rockford has ever received with one snowstorm. The largest snowfall dates back to January 1-2, 1918 where the airport picked up a whopping 16.3" of snow. The most recent in the top 5 was back on February 1-2, 2011 where the Rockford area saw 14.3".