Calling today the "Calm Before the Storm", Snow Arrives Late Saturday

Snow has come in small numbers throughout the month of January, with our highest daily total coming in at 1.9" (January 1st, 26th). There is a good chance that will change over the weekend, as the second winter storm of the week swings in, bringing another round of accumulating snow. All remains tranquil ahead of the upcoming winter storm, as high pressure will allow for a dry end to the work week. 

Friday remains snow-free. Cloud cover and a light southeasterly wind made for a much warmer start for some, with temperatures landing in the low teens. Although we're not as cold, it still feels chilly out there with wind chill values sitting in the single-digits. I would still make sure to put on an extra layer or two before stepping out this morning. Following this chilly start, temperatures climb into the mid-and-upper-20s by the afternoon, which is a bit closer to average. Unlike yesterday, cloud cover will become more frequent, leading to filtered sunshine throughout the day. Cloud cover is expected to further increase late this evening, turning skies mostly cloudy overnight.

Earlier this morning, the National Weather Service placed the entire viewing area under a Winter Storm Watch which is scheduled to go into effect Saturday afternoon. If you have any errands to run, your best bet would be to get them taken care of Saturday morning. Hi-res models show dry conditions lasting into mid-day, with precipitation moving in by early Saturday afternoon. A mix of rain and snow is possible at the beginning of the event, as temperatures remain near the freezing mark. However, it shouldn't take long for a rapid transition to snow to occur, especially as temperatures slowly fall after sunset. 

As the surface low slowly approaches, winds will also become an issue. Similar to the winter storm that came through Monday into Tuesday, wind gusts of 30-35 mph are highly possible. Snow will then begin to fall at moderate to heavy rates, making travel a bit more difficult. According to the National Weather Service, snowfall rates could be as high as 1 to 2 inches per hour. Not only does this result in a faster rate of accumulations, but also significantly will reduce visibility. It's essential that you avoid unnecessary travel at this time

Moderate to heavy snow will remain possible into the early hours of Sunday morning, but should be winding down around sunrise. Hi-res models continue to keep scattered showers in the forecast into the afternoon, with minor accumulations possible. As the storm system pulls away from the region, winds will gradually begin to ease up. All activity should come to a close by Sunday evening, paving the way for a dry start to upcoming work week.

The biggest uncertainty with this winter storm has been snowfall totals. What has been consistent however is that each of the models have placed the highest totals in the areas west and south of Lake Michigan. Generally, I think the Stateline will see a nice swath of 5"- 9" by Sunday morning, with lower totals to our south. That's because the more south you are, the closer you get to the rain/snow mix line. Yes, numbers are important. But regardless of how much you're getting, it's the impacts that we really should be focusing on.

If you have any plans to travel, especially late Saturday into Sunday morning, you may want to delay or reschedule those plans. Dangerous travel is likely, as the combination of gusty winds and heavy snowfall rates will result in poor visibility. Blowing and drifting snow will make it very difficult to travel, as roads will become slick and snow-covered. As stated many times before, its important that you get anything errands done well before the heavier snow moves in, helping you avoid the unnecessary travel. One other thing to be prepared for is sporadic power outages. The weight of the snow, or the strength of the winds could result in tree branches falling on power lines. If possible, take either today or tomorrow morning to create a power outage kit so that you have it available when the power goes out.