Winter Storm Watch Issued, Travel Impacts Likely Thursday into Friday

We'll have one more day to enjoy this recent stretch of dry and comfortable weather before winter really takes control later this week. Although our "hump" day is starting off rather cold, the atmosphere overnight was conducive for widespread dense fog to develop ahead of the morning commute. The National Weather Service has placed a few of our counties, including Stephenson, Jo-Daviess, Carroll, Whiteside, Ogle, and Lee Counties, under a Dense Fog Advisory until 10AM. Up until then, those traveling will experience quick fluctuations in visibility. 

Temperatures early Wednesday morning dropped well below the 32° mark, allowing for freezing fog to be observed.You'll need to keep an eye out for patchy slick spots, especially on sidewalks, driveways, and elevated surfaces. Fog should dissipate by the late morning hours, leaving behind a beautiful wintry scene in some areas. Remember all of that rime ice we saw in January? You may see some once this fog gives up it's hold on the Stateline. Otherwise, a comfortable afternoon lies ahead under a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs back in the low 30s. Cloud cover will increase late this evening into tonight, paving the way for our next winter storm. 

Much of the Stateline will be placed under a Winter Storm Watch beginning Thursday afternoon stretching into Friday morning. Model guidance indicates all winter precipitation types will be possible, with a wintry mix expected during the first hour or two of this event. As colder air rushes in, a transition to all snow should take place across most of the Stateline. As far as timing, slick spots will be possible late Thursday morning as a wintry mix develops. As colder air is pulled in from the northwest, a transition to all snow is likely after mid-day. Models continue to hold off the heavier bands of snow until late in the afternoon into the early evening, with heavier bursts of snow possible during the evening commute.

As the low occludes and pulls away, snow will gradually tapering off by 7-8PM. Not only will snow cause a few headaches during the late drive home, winds are expected to increase. Gusts during the second half of the day could be as high as 35 to 40 mph, bringing the threat for near-whiteout conditions. This will make traveling extra difficult during the evening commute on Thursday and the morning commute on Friday. With how fast temperatures plummet into Friday's morning, a quick freeze is possible which could make it even more difficult to travel early Friday.

In the end, snow totals will end up less than what the Stateline received during this past weekend's winter storm, but I think 2" to 5" is a good place to start. Model trends have shown slightly higher snow totals the close you get to the Wisconsin/Illinois border. Following an arctic cold front late Thursday, cold air will rush in for the end of the work week and into the weekend. Say goodbye to near average highs, as afternoon highs drop into the teens Friday and Saturday, and then into the single digits into next week. In fact, temperatures in next week will end up 20°-30° below average. Yikes. Not a bad weekend to remain indoors, especially with Super Bowl Sunday just on the horizon.