Taste of Spring:
As the saying goes "good things come to those who wait". Those like myself who wanted to see a little taste of spring, we're finally getting it. Not only did the Rockford Airport observe it's first 50° day last Wednesday, but we rose to the challenge and observed our first 60° day yesterday. Comparing that to average, we don't normally see highs reach the 50° mark until March 22nd. A little ahead of schedule for sure, but who's complaining. I will say, if you didn't get a chance to enjoy the beautiful weather yesterday, you'll have another opportunity today.
Today's Forecast:
Walking out this morning, you may notice a little less sunshine and a bit more cloud cover. Clouds began filling in shortly after midnight thanks to a weak disturbance moving overhead. Despite of cloud cover, this disturbance doesn't have much moisture to work with, especially in the low-levels of the atmosphere. In other words, dry conditions persist for those hitting the roads early on. However, these clouds won't be sticking around for much longer. Guidance continues to show this morning's cloud cover quickly giving way to sunshine by the afternoon, with highs soaring into the low 60s. Along with the sunshine comes a bit of a wind. Southerly to southeasterly winds this afternoon could gust to 30 mph at times, with stronger winds expected to arrive by Wednesday.
Like I said, if you can get outside an enjoy the spring-like warmth today, please take time to do so. Tuesday's sunshine paves the way for our next chance for precipitation, which looks to arrive as early as Wednesday morning. Before you forget, be sure to dust off the rain gear and put it in a place where it's easily accessible. As moisture increases overnight, cloud cover is expected to quickly increase which will then lead to rain chances. Showers look to become more widespread in nature by the mid to late morning hours, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
Guidance shows activity becoming more hit or miss by the afternoon, but that's when the winds become the bigger issue. Through the day Wednesday, winds could approach 40 mph at times, which is strong enough to blow away loose objects. I would also take advantage of today's sunshine by going outside and bringing any loose objects, such as empty trash cans and recycling bins, inside so that they don't blow away.
As a cold front approaches the region from the northwest, showers look to become more widespread overnight into Thursday morning, with a better chance for a few isolated thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center leaves the highest chance for severe weather across portions of eastern Kansas, with a general thunderstorm risk for the entire Stateline. A general risk entails that severe weather is not expected.
How Much?
Once the cold front slides through Thursday morning, rain chances will slowly diminish as drier air works it's way in. As far as rainfall totals, I think most of the area will be in the .25" to .50" range, with a few isolated spots up to .75". Following Thursday's cold front, highs will drop from the low 60s to the upper 50s Thursday, then to the low 40s as we head into the weekend.
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