Wednesday afternoon showers produce a few funnel clouds

The threat for severe weather, or even thunderstorms, was fairly low Wednesday afternoon.  But a few showers during the afternoon did produce a couple of funnel clouds in Stephenson County. 

These types of funnel clouds are not associated with supercell thunderstorms that produce tornadoes and rarely reach the ground.  Often times they extend a couple hundred feet from the parent cloud, spin like a top and then lift back up after a few minutes.  They form along some of sort of convergent (wind coming together) or frontal boundary, underneath showers or thunderstorms.  They are short-lived because there are no upper level dynamics to help sustain either the thunderstorm or funnel cloud. 

Isolated showers will continue to move to the south this evening, leaving us with a partly cloudy sky overnight.

Patchy Fog Likely Early On, Temperatures Cool Down Towards the Holiday Weekend

Patchy Fog Early:

While the Stateline is waking up to a mainly quiet radar on this Wednesday morning, patchy fog remains possible into mid-morning. Areas to the north and west, including portions of eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, have been placed under a dense fog advisory this morning. No advisory for us, but I'd still take extra caution if you plan to leave early. With a juicy atmosphere still in place, visibility will have an opportunity to drop to 1 mile or less and it will fluctuate from location to location . Otherwise, a backdoor cold front will be the main focus ahead of the holiday weekend. This frontal boundary will help bring our daily high temperatures down and make it feel a bit more comfortable out there during the second half of the work week.

Short-Lived Relief:

For those that are pleading for a break from this "soupy" humidity as I call it, look no further. While today's cold front won't bring much in the way of relief, that can't be said with the secondary cold front that is scheduled to move through Thursday morning. This cold front will help bring down a cooler, less humid air-mass and spread it across the Great Lakes region. 

Our daily highs look to tumble from the mid 80s today, down into the upper 70s by Friday. Today remains warm and humid, as dew points look to sit in the mid to upper 60s. But we should see those values drop the further we approach the 4th of July weekend. Rain chances during this stretch remain isolated, especially today and Thursday. But incoming air-mass will give you a great opportunity to give your A/C units a day or two of rest. With that being said, be sure to take in as much of this break as you can, because heat and humidity is expected to make a quick return for the holiday weekend.

Showers and heavy rain threat winding down as Flash Flood Watch is canceled

The Flash Flood Watch that had been issued for most of northern Illinois has been allowed to expire Tuesday evening as the threat for heavy downpours continues to decline.  While showers were present Tuesday morning, much of the afternoon ended up dry as thunderstorms formed to the north and south of the Stateline.

 Much of Tuesday evening remained dry but a line of weakening showers and thunderstorms moving into southwest Wisconsin will continue to sink southeast.  These may hold together long enough to reach northwest Illinois between 11pm and Midnight.  If they do, it wouldn't be much that comes down as only isolated showers are in the forecast through Wednesday morning.

Those showers have formed along a cold front that'll sweep through the region during the first half of the day Wednesday.  Isolated thunderstorms may occur behind the front Wednesday afternoon, but the higher chance will remain further south.  Additional thunderstorms are possible Thursday as an upper level trough comes in from the north before drying out heading into Friday afternoon.

More of the Same on Tap for Tuesday, Flash Flood Watch Continues

Flash Flood Watch:

With more of the same rainy weather on tap for Tuesday, the National Weather Service has placed a majority of northern Illinois under a Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM this evening. When it comes to flash flood alerts or any other weather alerts, it's important to remember that a watch means the conditions are favorable for flooding to occur. When a flash flood warning is issued, it means that flooding is happening at the current moment. 

More of the Same:

If you put the rain gear away when you got home yesterday, I would quickly bring it back out for when you head the door out this morning. The moisture-rich atmosphere that was in place yesterday is expected to remain in place today, meaning that any shower or storm that develops or tracks into the Stateline will have the potential to produce heavy downpours. As we've stated in previous posts, the current state of the ground won't be able to handle the amount of rainfall that falls underneath these heavier downpours, resulting in the heightened threat for flash flooding.

Severe chances remain low, but gusty winds could accompany the strongest thunderstorms. For that, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a good portion of the Great lakes, including the eastern half of the viewing area, under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. The severe threat should wind down shortly after sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes into the night. The frontal boundary that slide to our north overnight is expected to sink southeastward as a cold front, sliding through by tomorrow morning. This will continue the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms into the middle of the work week, with a much drier and more comfortable settling in for the 4th of July weekend.

Keep the Rain Gear Handy as Rain Chances Are Best Early in the Week

Record Heat Out West:

Remember when we kicked off the month of June with unseasonable warm temperatures? The reason I ask is because we haven't really seen heat to that extreme over the past week or so, as highs locally have been in the 70s and 80s. But who has really seen the mercury rise in their thermometers are places along the west coast, as highs in places like Portland and Seattle climbed over the 100° mark. 

To put this extreme heat into perspective, Rockford's all-time record high was 112° set back on July 14th, 1936. Portland hit 112° yesterday, with Seattle not too far behind with a high of 104°. Thankfully, that heat won't be heading out way anytime soon. In fact, the upcoming work week features a pair of cold fronts, both of which will bring the Stateline not only more chances to see some rain, but cooler temperatures towards the holiday weekend. 

Rain Chances Continue:

The Stateline will see it's best rain chances during the first half of the work week thanks to the moisture supply a frontal boundary has to work with as it lifts northward. For both Monday and Tuesday, I'd have the rain gear on hand, as both days feature a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thankfully, we are not expecting anything severe with any of the thunderstorms that pop up throughout the day. 

But with the plethora of moisture in the atmosphere, heavy downpours will be the main concern.  Due to the scattered nature of today's activity, not everyone will see a healthy dose of rainfall. For those that end up being under a heavier downpour, totals could end up more closer to an inch. As that frontal boundary inches closer, the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms continue overnight and into Tuesday. As far as high temperatures, we look to remain in the low 80s into the middle of the work week, which is normally where our average highs land as June comes to a close. 

Rain Chances Best Early:

Everyone keeps asking, "when are we going to see a break from this humidity?". Unfortunately, the humidity will remain in the picture well into the workweek. That is mainly why we keep a chance for rain for Wednesday and Thursday. However, good things come to those who wait. We'll finally, see, a cooler, drier, more comfortable air-mass filter in towards the holiday weekend. Highs look to briefly drop from the low 80s Thursday to the upper 70s into the first half of the weekend. As for the 4th of July, confidence is increasing that it will be a pleasant one this year thanks to this more comfortable air-mass.

Multi-Day Rain Event Begins Today, Bringing Severe & Flash Flood Potential

Extremely Dry June:

Believe it or not, yesterday's total of 0.17" at the Rockford International Airport was the 3rd highest daily rainfall total observed this month. Yeah, that statement alone provides a great depiction on how incredibly dry it's been in June. But, as we've been putting out there the past couple of days, models continue to show the potential for a healthy dose of steady rainfall which looks to begin today, and last into the weekend.

Today's Rain Chances:

A slow-moving cold front will be behind this multi-day rain event, with rain chances beginning begin late Thursday morning. While the day begins on a dry note, under a mostly cloudy sky, I would make sure to have the rain gear with you. Early-morning guidance showcases a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving in shortly after mid-morning, with chances continuing into late afternoon.

Overnight, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded a portion of the Stateline, mainly the areas to the west of I-39, to a slight risk (level 2 of 5), for severe weather. The eastern half of the region, including Rockford, Rochelle, Belvidere, and DeKalb remain under a marginal risk, just a category down from a slight risk. While the severe threat remains low during the daytime hours, the thunderstorm threat that arrives late this evening into tonight will come with a chance for damaging winds and large hail. 

Chances Continue Into Friday:

Chances remain scattered overnight, with little to no breaks in the rain expected on Friday. Showers will once again by likely, with a few isolated thunderstorms possible. So before heading to bed this evening, place the rain gear somewhere where it'll be easily accessible for when you head out tomorrow morning. The biggest threat by far over the next few days will be the potential for flash flooding. Even with the .77" we've seen over the past week, the ground remains extremely dry. From today through Saturday, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to track through, bringing the potential for 2"-4" to fall across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

With how the extremely dry the ground is across the area, it won't be able to soak in this much rain in a short amount of time. This may lead to some runoff and flash flooding. When it comes to flooding, remember...

1. If you come across a flooded roadway, turn around, don't drown. 

2. A watch means the conditions are right for flooding to occur. A warning means flooding is currently happening. 

But the best part of this multi-day rain event is that it'll help us with not only our yearly rainfall deficit, but also our current drought situation. 

Several Rain & Storm Chances Wrap Up the Week

As the Stateline continues to experience impactful drought conditions despite a couple of recent rainfalls, the next several days should help to put a large dent in the area’s rain deficit.

 Early Wednesday morning, a few light showers pushed through parts of the Stateline before clearing out by the afternoon and leaving the Stateline dry for the rest of the day. But a couple of approaching storm systems should bring the rainfall that the Stateline has long been hoping for. A strong cold front draped across the northern Plains is bringing a cluster of rain showers to parts of far northern Minnesota Wednesday evening. This front will propagate southeastward and approach the Stateline by Thursday morning.  A second disturbance, a center of low pressure out to the west, is bringing strong to severe thunderstorms to parts of Nebraska. This system will also push eastward and arrive in the Midwest late Thursday. Both systems will bring several rounds of rain and thunderstorms to the area over the latter half of the week.

After mostly clear to partly cloudy skies should stick around through most of the overnight, more clouds will quickly fill in from the west close to dawn Thursday morning. This will pave the way for the first chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms which could arrive as early as the midmorning hours. This will kick off a day of off and on scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms popping up as well. The chance of rain will continue overnight though likely break up in coverage quite a bit before filling in again heading into Friday. Similar conditions are expected for the final day of the work week with scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the day. A third storm system will impact the Stateline heading into the weekend bringing the area more chances for rain and a few lighter thunderstorms primarily on Saturday though rain is possible on Sunday as well.

 There is the potential for some of the thunderstorms over the next couple of days to be on the stronger side, particularly on Thursday. As of Wednesday evening, the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather on Thursday over just about all of the Stateline with a slight risk sitting just out to the west where the atmosphere appears more suitable for deep convection and rapid thunderstorm development. Should any thunderstorms become severe, heavy downpours and sever winds are the most likely hazards though the chance for hail or even an isolated tornado does exist. Regardless of whether any of these storms become severe, the area should get plenty of much needed rain. Due to the very scattered nature of the rain over the next several days, rainfall amounts across the Stateline should be extremely variable. Therefore, computer models are also extremely variable in their predicted rainfall totals though there is a consensus that a notable amount should fall. These next few days should hopefully put up a good fight against the drought conditions found in the area. A few lighter rain events over the past week likely resulted in the soil becoming a bit more permeable which will make the rain that we get in the near future all the more helpful. As of the latest drought monitor from the Drought Mitigation Center issued this past Thursday, most of the Stateline is experiencing a moderate drought with many seeing severe to extreme drought conditions.