Yesterday marked the 4th straight day where Rockford observed a high temperature of 90° or higher, a feat we haven't seen since late last August. There's a good possibility we'll see this streak come to an end today, as cloud cover and rain chances become more frequent. In fact, each day of the work week feature a chance for us to see some rainfall, something much northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin desperately need.
With the main portion of the jet stream well to the north, a slow-moving upper-level low will slowly lift out of the southern plains. The surge of moisture associated with this low will contribute to daily rainfall chances, beginning this afternoon. Shortly after the lunch hour, guidance showcases a few hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms popping up, with chances lasting into sunset. Coverage will be spotty, which means rainfall totals will vary from place to place. You won't fully need the rain gear on your way out this morning, but it wouldn't hurt to have your umbrella on hand just in case. Similar to how our Monday has started, it'll be a warm and muggy afternoon with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Something that we'll have to get use to as the work week carries on. Rain coverage will become more isolated overnight, with another warm start expected Tuesday morning.
With the slow-moving nature of this cut-off upper-level low, chances for the rest of the work week remain very scattered. If models can come into agreement on the passage of a cold front, our best chance for thunderstorm development may hold off until Friday. Current thinking suggests severe weather is not expected, However. the potential for quick downpours and an isolated gusty winds will accompany any storm that develops. Highs temperatures during this stretch look to remain well above average in the upper 80s, with a day or two climbing back into the low 90s.
An area of high pressure was shown sliding in for the upcoming weekend, bringing our best chance for more tranquil weather. Considering the fact the last time Rockford observed an inch or more of rainfall was back in September of last year, it would be nice for us to see a soaking rain event or two. Unfortunately, the long-range outlooks don't look too favorable for much of the lower 48s, including our neck of the woods, to see above-average rainfall into the second half of June.
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