Monday, November 8, 2021

Warm & Sunny Monday, Big Chances Arrive Late in the Week

Warmth Lingers:

We're coming off a beautiful November weekend that featured an abundance of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 60s. In fact, both Saturday and Sunday ended up well-above average, as average highs are sitting closer to the 50-degree mark. So this begs the question, how do you top that? With more of the same expected as we begin the work week!

If you plan on heading out early, there are two things you'll need to prepare yourself for the day. First off, you'll need a jacket or a sweatshirt as temperatures are registering in the low to mid 40s early on. And secondly, a pair of sunglasses. With high pressure in control of our atmosphere, plenty of sunshine is expected early on, with a few clouds moving in by this evening. Ahead of a weak frontal boundary, winds will remain out of the west-southwest, allowing temperatures to climb back into the mid to upper 60s. To make a long story short, get outside and enjoy the weather today. It'll be a forecast you don't want to miss.

Tuesday's Disturbance:

Clouds will continue to increase overnight as this frontal boundary slides through the Stateline. Despite the increase in cloud cover, rain chances remain slim to none as this frontal boundary won't have much moisture to work with. 

However, a weak disturbance quickly sliding in behind tonight's cold front will help pull in enough moisture for a spotty shower or two on Tuesday, especially before mid-day. The combination of the tomorrow's cloud cover and light northeast wind will cool temperatures down quite a bit, with most spots near the 60-degree mark. Although Tuesday's disturbance won't bring much when it comes to precipitation, that can't be said about the storm system that comes in late in the week. 

Late-Week Flurries?:

Guidance continues to hint at a stronger, more dynamic storm system sliding down from the Upper Great Plains Thursday morning. Along with the cold front, rain chances look to start late-morning, lasting into mid-afternoon. 

Once the "dry slot" of the low moves overhead, conditions will rapidly dry out but remain windy as we head into Thursday night and Friday morning. Strong winds will help filter in a much cooler air-mass, which may contribute to a mix of rain/flurries on Friday before the system fully moves out. We still are a few days out for the forecast to change, but there is a decent chance that the Stateline could see snowflakes fall by the end of the work week. Guidance also shows a second system moving in late Saturday into Sunday that could also bring the potential for a few snowflakes.


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