Sun-Filled Monday, White Christmas Odds Look Slim

Snow Statistics:

Friday night's disturbance left behind 0.1" of snow at the airport, marking only the 3rd time this season in which we've seen measurable snow. This places us 5.5" below the average snowfall that we typically see from December 1st to the 19th. 

To all the snow-lovers in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, I wouldn't get too excited. This morning's round of model runs weren't too fond of our snow chances as we inch closer to the Christmas holiday. What I will say however is that a pair of sunglasses will come in handy as the next several days call for a good amount of sunshine. 

More Sunshine Ahead:

Even with a weak frontal boundary sliding through this afternoon, all remains quiet for the start of the work week. Sunshine dominates much of our Monday with highs for most if our local airports peaking in the upper 30s. 

Behind today's cold front, a cooler air-mass settles in from the Upper Great Plains, allowing for a quick temperature drop Monday night. Most spots will wake up in the upper teens come Tuesday morning, with wind chills registering in the low teens. It's safe to say that the first day of winter will have a winter-like feel to start.

First Day of Winter:

Officially, the Midwest makes the jump into the astronomical winter season at 9:59 in the morning. The shortest day of the year kicks off with more sunshine, with a few more clouds gathering up by the afternoon hours. 

This is all in response to another weak disturbance that aims to bring a round of light snow to areas up in central Wisconsin. Guidance kept the area dry, with highs topping out in the upper 30s. We inch closer to seasonable by Wednesday afternoon as highs peak in the low to mid 30s. It won't be until late in the week that a small dip in the jet stream will bring a better shot at seeing some precipitation. The question however that remains is will it be in the form of snow? 

White Christmas?:

Historically, the Stateline has a 40-50% chance of seeing a white Christmas. From what I saw with this morning's model runs, our odds are very slim for a white Christmas this year. The main reason is the placement of the jet stream.

Late in the weak, the jet stream shifts to our north, placing the Stateline on the warmer side of the incoming disturbance. This means that both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will come with small RAIN chance. With temperatures both days climbing into the mid-to-upper 40s, any precipitation will fall as rain with a VERY isolated snow shower mixed in.