Friday's Storm Threat, Weather Remains Unsettled into the Weekend

Friday's Storm Threat:

A lifting warm front brought temperatures back to summer-like levels on Thursday. Highs for most of our local airports peaked in the mid to upper 80s, landing between 20° to 25° warmer than temperatures felt a day prior. Unfortunately, this quick warm-up is a very brief one as a cold front will drop our daily highs down to early-April levels by the weekend. 

Over the last couple of days, models have had a tough time depicting when this cold front would pass through the region. Current thinking suggests that the frontal boundary will come through around the midday hour Friday, which will continue thunderstorm chances well into the afternoon. However, I think the best time frame for thunderstorm development will be between the mid to late morning hours. Now,  the earlier frontal passage severely restricts the atmosphere’s ability to recharge, in turn, bringing our severe threat way down once again.

Storm Outlook:

For that reason, the Storm Prediction Center again downgraded the Stateline from a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to a general thunderstorm risk. Only a sliver of McHenry, Dekalb, and Lee Counties remain under the Marginal Risk as it appears a higher chance for storm development resides to our south and east. 

If anything was to become severe locally, strong winds and some hail would be the bigger concerns. Chances do remain Isolated during the afternoon and evening as the cold front marches through the region. This would mean that if you plan on attending the Rockford's first City Market of the year, you'll want to keep an eye on the radar or stay up-to-date with the forecast! Also, I recommend putting on a light jacket before you head out as temperatures will be quick to drop into the evening. 

Weekend Outlook:

Unfortunately, our weather pattern remains unsettled and turns a bit cooler for the upcoming weekend. A surge of moisture is expected to occur along the sinking frontal boundary, resulting in a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms for the second half of Saturday. 

That, along with the northwest winds behind the front, will limit highs in the lower 60s. We trade in our upcoming rain chances for some sunshine as high pressure settles in for Sunday. Despite the amount sunshine we'll see, temperatures will still be limited to the lower 60s because of an organized northwesterly wind. Sunshine remains in the forecast for the beginning of next week, with our next rain chance arriving by Tuesday.