Localized flooding possible due to river ice jams

 

A FLOOD WATCH has been issued for Winnebago County until Thursday morning due to a developing ice jam on the Rock River between Bauer Parkway and Latham Road in Machesney Park. River ice spotters and river gauges in that area indicate that an ice jam is beginning to form.

Localized flooding may develop quickly along the river if the ice jam continues to worsen. This could cause the Rock River to rise out of its banks, potentially flooding some of the residential areas and streets. Localized water fluctuations are also possible. Remain alert if you live in this area, or along a portion of the river that experiences ice jams. 

Wind Chill Advisory In Place, Bitterly Cold Stretch Continues

Why So Cold?

There are plenty of factors into why our Tuesday is starting off brutally cold. The first having to do with the rather strong area of high-pressure that is in control of the Midwestern states. With that in place, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin are sitting under a completely clear sky. 

The second major factor is the fresh snowpack. After the sun goes down, the heat absorbed by the snow is radiated back into the atmosphere, allowing temperatures to fall a bit more rapidly than if there was no snow on the ground. In the end, you have the perfect formula for temperatures to fall well below-zero to kick off our Tuesday. Not only that, there will be just enough wind present to also allow wind chills to fall. 

Wind Chill Advisory:

For that reason, the National Weather Service has placed Stephenson, Carroll, and Jo-Daviess County in N. Illinois as well as our three S. Wisconsin counties under a WIND CHILL ADVISORY. This will be in place until 9am as wind chill values could range from -15° to as low as -25°. 

Before you head out the door, make sure you are properly prepared as frostbite could occur on exposed skin in as little as 20-30 minutes. Despite the fact that our day features plenty of sunshine, the snow cover will make it difficult for temperatures to climb. Most will struggle to make it out of the single-digits. Another bitterly cold night lies ahead as we can expect lows to fall on either side of the 0-degree mark under a few clouds. Wind chills Wednesday morning won't be as low, but still will range between -10° to -15°.

Remaining Cold:

With time, this high-pressure system will shift to the east, allowing a somewhat warmer regime to take control for Wednesday and Thursday. Under a generally dry sky, high temperatures will climb back into the low 20s Wednesday, then upper 20s Thursday ahead of our next cold front. 

Forecast models do show quite the cool-down occurring behind the frontal boundary, which will briefly place highs back in the lower teens for Friday. When you do the calculations, both today's high and Friday's high land close to 20-degrees below-average. It's not until late-Friday into early Saturday that we introduce a slim chance for a few flurries and light snow showers. However, a slightly better shot at wintry precipitation moves in late Sunday into Monday, falling in the form of a wintry mix.

Wind Chill Advisory issued Monday night

 

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY has been issued for southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois beginning late Monday night, lasting through Tuesday morning. Wind chills are not expected to drop significantly but a few locations could fall as low as -20 to -25 degrees below zero, meaning frostbite could occur on exposed skin in as little as 20-30 minutes.

Strong high pressure currently located over northwest Iowa will settle across northern Illinois by daybreak Tuesday. This will help turn our winds somewhat calm through the night, but also allow temperatures to fall quickly as the sun sets. This will be most notable in areas that have a deeper snowpack from Saturday's snowfall. Air temperatures will drop below zero, some as low as -10 degrees (which is our current forecast). The lighter wind will help some with the wind chill factor, but even a 5 mile per hour breeze will push the wind chill down Tuesday morning.

Wind chills, while improving some Tuesday afternoon, will remain below zero during the day as high temperatures warm into the low to mid-teens.  Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies can be expected through the middle of the week. 

Flurries/light snow Sunday night

 

Cloud cover was quick to fill back in across northern Illinois Sunday afternoon and evening, leading to flurries and light snow showers across parts of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

The radar has become a little more active over the last couple of hours, highlighting flurries and light snow showers south of Rockford. There may be a few steadier flurries falling south of I-88 and US-30. No more than a dusting is expected, but there may be a little more in southern Lee and DeKalb counties Monday morning.

Current visibility observations haven't shown much in the way of increased activity; all report visibility at 10 miles, but with temperatures in the teens anything that does comes down will stick. This may cause some icy and slick conditions Monday morning. Flurries are expected to last through Monday morning with clouds slowly clearing by the afternoon. Take it slow during the morning as there may be some impacts to the morning commute.  

Colder pattern set to return this week

 

After an unseasonably warm January, the pattern has changed quite a bit as we look to end the month on a much colder note. Temperatures Sunday afternoon warmed to only the upper teens and low 20s, reaching 21 degrees in Rockford. While it wasn't quite as snowy as Saturday, the impacts from the snow were still felt Sunday afternoon. A few flurries remain possibly during the night as temperatures are expected to fall into the single digits. Wind chills, however, will fall below zero - and already have (and have been) over far northwest Illinois. This has been in an area that experienced a little less cloud cover Sunday afternoon.

Cloud cover looks to stick around during the day Monday, although we may see a little clearing take place during the afternoon and evening. This will occur as high pressure brings drier air into the region. Temperatures Monday won't warm much, in fact, it's possible that our highs may be reached early in the day, with numbers slowly falling back into the evening.

A colder pattern settles in thanks to a couple cold, Canadian, high-pressure systems moving through the Plains and Midwest this week. The first is set to move in Monday night/Tuesday morning, centering right over west-central Illinois. With the fresh snow cover, temperatures are likely to fall quick Monday evening. However, some models are suggesting that an increase in cloud cover will occur during that time. If this occurs, our temperatures may not fall as fast, or as low, as expected keeping wind chills a little warmer than anticipated. Right now, it looks like wind chills could fall as low as -20 degrees in some locations Tuesday morning.

Winds will turn back to the south as the first high-pressure system departs Tuesday night. It won't do much to warm our temperatures, however, as highs are still expected to remain in the 20s. The next high will move to our north, shifting winds to the northeast Thursday night and Friday. Those northeast winds will increase once again - especially Friday - pushing temperatures back down into the teens Friday afternoon and overnight lows back down below zero. We may see a little bit of a pattern change the first weekend of February with temperatures warm back into the low 30s. Longer-range outlooks place northern Illinois at a slightly higher probability for above average temperatures within the first week and a half of the month. 

Significant snowfall *possible* Saturday; Big chill follows

 

Light snow will continue to fall Wednesday night and throughout the day Thursday before briefly coming to an end Thursday night. Snow showers will pick back up Friday morning as a warm front quickly moves across northern Illinois. Between the two days an additional 1-2 inches of snow is possible. While these snow events will have some impacts, we could be looking at a more impactful snow event to kick off the weekend.

A strong cold front will move across the area Friday night, filtering in a much colder air mass during that time. As the front stalls just to the south Saturday, a weak low-pressure system will develop to the southwest and move along the front Saturday afternoon and evening. Our forecast models have been fairly consistent on developing a band of snow Saturday morning, moving right along northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin throughout the day.

Temperatures during this time will be cold, in the low to mid 20s, so any snow that does come down will stick right away. In the upper levels, forcing (or lift) will be increasing. This could allow for a steady snow to fall during the afternoon and evening. While it is way too early to get into the specifics on any snow amounts, if this trend continues it would likely be our biggest snowfall of the Winter season. The placement of the snow will depend heavily on where the leading edge of the cold air ends up. If it slips further to our south, this is where the heavier snow will fall. There's a lot to keep an eye on as we near the weekend, not only with the snow on Saturday, but also with the cold that is set to follow into next week. If we get a fresh coating of snow Saturday, temperatures could fall even further than the current forecast!

Light snow continues Wednesday night, Thursday and Friday

 

The Winter Weather Advisory that had been issued for most Wednesday morning was canceled in the early afternoon as the majority of the accumulating snow had ended. We will continue to see light snow for the remainder of Wednesday evening, leading into Thursday, as an unsettled weather pattern remains over the Great Lakes. Snowfall totals from across the area ranged between one to three inches, with slightly higher amounts in our southern counties of Lee and DeKalb.

Temperatures during the afternoon warmed into the low 30s, above freezing, so any additional snow that comes down during the early evening should melt on contact - at least on the well-traveled roads. But overnight lows are expected to fall into the upper 20s which could lead to any residual moisture and slush left on the roads, parking lots and sidewalks to refreeze. This may result in icy conditions Thursday morning.

Scattered snow showers will continue throughout the afternoon Thursday with an additional half an inch, to an inch, falling during that time. Temperatures Thursday will warm into the low 30s. Clearing may briefly take place Thursday evening leading to temperatures dipping into the teens in some locations. Clouds will be quick to build back in by early Friday morning as a fast-moving low-pressure system moves across the Upper Midwest. This will result in a warm front lifting close to northwest Illinois Friday morning.

A quick increase in moisture and lift will help form a band of snow during the pre-dawn hours Friday, lasting through most of Friday morning. Southwest winds will also be increasing during that time, gusting to around 30 mph. This will more than likely cause issues for the morning commute, with slick roads and reduced visibility. Temperatures on Friday will briefly warm into the low 30s with lows falling into the teens Friday night.  

Winter Weather Advisory In Place, Impacts to Morning Commute Likely,

Wednesday's Snow:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is now in effect for all of northern Illinois as well as south-central Wisconsin until 3PM this afternoon. 

Shortly after midnight, light snow began to cover roads in our southernmost areas, eventually overspreading the rest of the region ahead of the morning commute. Because of this, there will be two things you'll have to take into account. The first being the likelihood for snow-covered roads. The second, reduced visibility. If you plan to be out on the roads this morning, please allow extra time for travel and take it slow out there. Expect snow to remain steady into the mid-day hours before becoming more scattered for the afternoon and evening. 

Temperatures during the day will remain in the low 30s, close to freezing, which means a heavier and wet snow is expected. Overall, most will generally see 1"- 3", which slightly higher totals in areas that sit along and south of I-88. 

While the evening commute won't be as much of a mess, there will likely be light snow, or at least a few linger flurries, falling during that time. So be on the lookout for a few slick spots. Light snow showers may linger into early Thursday, though most of the day will be dry. Cloud cover and a light northerly wind will remain in place during the day, resulting in highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.

Friday's Cold Front:

Once today's chances come to a close, our focus will then turn to our next snow chance will comes in the form of a cold front Friday. Since most will see temperatures at or just above the freezing mark, there may be a moment or two where precipitation will fall as a wintry mix. 

Forecast models then show a better opportunity for snow over the weekend as a quick-moving storm system slides to our south. Behind our weekend storm system, a blast of frigidly cold air is to take place, plummeting temperatures into the early stages of next week. Long-range models are in slightly in disagreement on the timing of when this air-mass spills in the Great Lakes. However, expect highs to fall into the teens for Sunday and Monday, with overnight lows falling into the single-digits.

Snow Wednesday morning could impact commute: Winter Weather Advisory issued

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for all of northern Illinois and south-central Wisconsin, beginning late Tuesday night lasting through 3pm Wednesday. Light snow will move in from south to north overnight, overspreading most of the Stateline by Wednesday morning.

Snow showers Wednesday morning will remain mostly light, but a few steadier pockets of snow are possible. Minor accumulations are likely for some before sunrise, especially for those along I-88. Most will see the snow add up throughout the morning.

Snow amounts are likely to total between 1-3 inches, enough for us to manage, but with the snow coming down during the morning commute there are likely to be some impacts for drivers. So, make sure you are careful while out during the morning.

The snow will remain steady through 12pm-1pm before becoming more scattered into the afternoon and evening. Temperatures during the day Wednesday will remain in the low 30s, close to freezing, which means a heavier and wet snow is expected. There will likely be light snow, or at least flurries, falling during the evening commute Wednesday, carrying over into Thursday as an upper-level disturbance rotates along the backside of the surface low. 

An additional half an inch, to an inch, of snow can be expected Thursday. Skies will remain cloudy Thursday night ahead of another quick moving system that'll bring additional snow showers to the region Friday morning and early afternoon.    

Cloudy Tuesday, Light Snow Arrives Wednesday Morning

Dry Tuesday:

The only issue with today's forecast is the potential for a slick spot or two thanks to the freezing drizzle that moved through overnight. Otherwise, we can expect another dry but mostly cloudy day. 

With cloud cover remaining firmly in place for a majority of the day, temperatures will only climb a few degrees, landing in the low to mid 30s. 

But when you factor in today's light wind out of the west-southwest, it will feel more like the 20s this afternoon. Much of the overnight hours also remains dry under a mostly cloudy sky. However, light snow chances will be ramping up towards daybreak as our next storm system glides across the midsection of the U.S.

Next Storm System:

As of this morning, winter weather alerts span from western New Mexico up to the U.S/Canadian border in northern Maine. 

In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for counties directly south of our forecast area, with a winter storm warning in place further downstate. Whether they plan on pushing the winter weather advisory into our neck of the woods is still up in the air,

Locally, light snow moves in shortly before or around daybreak, lasting well into the day. It's because of this that you'll need to implement extra time into your morning routine as slippery travel will be a big possibility. As the low tracks into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, expect snow to decrease in intensity sometime during the early to mid afternoon hours. 

Models have remained very consistent in placing the highest snowfall totals across central and southern Illinois, as well as central Indiana. However, like most of the systems we've experienced this winter, we'll end up on the short end of the stick. Most will be able to pick up 1" to 2", with slightly higher totals along and south of Interstate 88. Thursday features a few flurries early on, with cloudy skies remaining overhead during the afternoon.

More Snow Chances:

Following Wednesday's snow-maker, there will be a few more opportunities for light snow this week. A phrase probably Stateline snow-lovers have been WAITING to hear all winter. Snow chances return with a cold front on Friday, then again late Saturday night into Sunday. 

Behind both systems, a blast of Arctic air will settle in, dropping temperatures below late-January and early-February standards. Highs by the end of the weekend fall into the teens, with overnight lows registering in the single-digits. Mother nature has been very kind to us since the new year began, giving us 19 above-average days. But as the famous saying goes "what goes up must come down".

Winter chill and snow return to close out the month of January

The above normal trend we've become accustomed to this winter season may be coming to an end as a pattern change pushes quite a bit of cold air down into the lower 48. The return of the cold also means an increased chance for a little wintry weather, the first of which will arrive Monday evening.

Clouds were able to clear just enough to give us a glimpse of the sun during the afternoon and evening. A much-welcomed sight! Whatever clearing took place, however, will fill back in with cloud cover ahead of a weakening cold front that is expected to move across south-central Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Light snow flurries have been occurring to the north in Wisconsin, and some of those make sneak down into the Stateline later tonight. With those flurries, freezing drizzle may also occur during the night - roughly between 9pm/10pm and 5am. While the chance for freezing drizzle is low, it may be just enough to cause some issues on the roads and for the morning commute. Be sure to use caution and give yourself a little extra time in the morning.

Temperatures will remain on the cooler side, especially towards the end of the week as a strong cold front sweeps through. Highs Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will warm to the low 30s - which is still a little above average - but will drop into the 20s, and then possibly teens, for the weekend and start of next week.

The colder air will also bring an increased chance in snow showers, beginning first Wednesday. A strong low-pressure system will move to the south of the Stateline Tuesday and Wednesday. The track right now has the low a little too far south to give northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin any significant snowfall, but an inch or two is possible. A shift to the north would mean a slightly higher chance for accumulating snowfall.

Following Wednesday's storm system there remain a few more opportunities for light snow this week: Friday and late Saturday night, into Sunday. This cooler pattern could also stick around into the beginning of February as longer-range outlooks support a higher probability for below average temperatures.   

Tranquil Start, Light Snow Tuesday Night into Wednesday

Sunday's Snowfall:

The light snow that fell throughout the day Sunday amounted to a little as a trace to the 1.8" observed at the Rockford International Airport. 

That my friends is now the highest snowfall total for the 2022-2023 winter season thus far. Sad I know. This is also why we have seen our seasonal snowfall deficit climb over a foot recently. But it's been the same story however this winter season, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin being on the short end of the stick with snowfall. While our next winter storm is a few days away, trends are making it seem likely that we'll miss our on the highest snowfall potential once again. 

Quiet Start:

Ridging both aloft and at the surface will result in a relatively tranquil start to the week. Both Monday and Tuesday feature quite a bit of cloud cover, with high temperatures peaking in the 30s. A little warmer tomorrow than this afternoon. 

Forecast models then show our next weather-maker diving off the Rocky Mountains and landing deep into southern Texas early Tuesday. This will place areas across the southern plains under the greatest threat for snow. Hence why the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Texas Panhandle, with a winter storm watch in place across central Oklahoma.

Midweek Snow Threat:

By Wednesday, the low aims to remain well to the south of the area, tracking through the bootheel of Missouri, western TN, and western KY. This will keep the great chance for snowfall accumulations away from the Stateline. 

However, there will be enough atmospheric moisture present for a round of scattered snow showers beginning late Tuesday night, stretching through the first half of Wednesday. With that being said, the event is still a few days out. We'll have to keep a close eye on how models trend with this system over the next 48 hours. That is why It will be important to stay up-to-date with the forecast during that stretch. But for now, it seems like we'll be missing out on another winter storm barring any significant changes in the track. 

Severe Threat South:

On the warmer side of the low, severe weather is likely across portions of the Gulf States. Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center placed the southernmost areas in LA, MS, AL, and a portion of the Florida Panhandle under a enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather. 

Wind profiles support the potential for a significant outbreak. The two uncertainties however is how much moisture can be pumped into the warm sector and the amount of instability present. But if everything does come together, all severe hazards will be on the table, including the possibility for a strong tornado or two. The severe threat lowers into Wednesday with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) in place across the Southeast U.S.

Cooler Friday, Light Snow Returns Over the Weekend

Lack of Snowfall: 

You would think with this week's rather active weather pattern that mother nature would at least slide in at least 1" of snow of more right? Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. 

Yes, we did have snow mix in on Wednesday and even a few flurries and light snow showers come through overnight. But all that amounted to at the Rockford Airport was a TRACE. Yep, that's it. This means the streak which involves the amount of days since our last 1" or more snow total inches closer to a month. This also places our snowfall deficit over the foot mark. So we have a lot, and I mean A LOT of catching up to do. 

Cooler Friday:

On my way in this morning, I did notice that snow was sticking to the roads. If you plan to travel during the morning commute, use extra caution because there may be a few slick spots. 

Any chance for snow comes to an end by mid-morning, leaving us with a mostly cloudy sky. The combination of today's cloud cover and rather chilly northwesterly breeze will bring our high temperatures down a few degrees, landing most in the lower 30s. While there may be a few breaks in our cloud cover this evening, skies remain mostly cloudy overnight with temperatures falling into the low 20s. 

Weekend Snow Chance:

Cloud cover hangs around for a most if not all of our Saturday. Despite a wind shift to the southwest, high temperatures will peak near the 32-degree mark. By Saturday evening, light snow chances will once again enter the picture as a weak storm system passes to our south.

Forecast models have been consistent when it comes to snow accumulations, landing most in the T to 1.0" range. If you plan to be on the roads Sunday morning, slick spots will be a possibility. A ridge of high pressure then slides in behind our weekend snow-maker, resulting in a quiet start to the work week next week. However, another and yet stronger system is shown sliding across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes during the late Tuesday-early Thursday time frame. This event would bring northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin another chance for light snow. With that being said, there is still plenty of time for the forecast to change. But it will be something to monitor over the next few days.

Dense Fog Advisory Issued

Advisory Issued:

Heads up folks! A DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued for Carroll and Whiteside Counties until 10AM. Over the next few hours, visibility could register around a 1/4 mile or less! 

1️⃣: Drive slowly

2️⃣: Travel with your low beams

3️⃣: Extra following distance

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:30AM Update:

Winnebago, Boone, Dekalb, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, and Jo-Daviess Counties have been added to the DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

 

This portion of the advisory will last until 11AM!

 
 

Winter Storm Moves Out, Impactful Sct'd Mix Lingers

Lingering Effects:

With the dry slot of this late week storm moving in this morning, we can officially say that we are done with the worst of the precipitation. However, if you plan to travel this morning, drizzle will be possible as well as the potential for fog. 

Energy sliding in on the storm's backside will result in a secondary scattered round of mixed precipitation during the afternoon and evening. This may pose for a slick spot or two for the drive home. Winds also ramp up this evening, gusting out of the west-northwest at 25-35 mph. These cooler winds will help switchover any precipitation this evening to flurries and light snow. Expect a flurry or two to linger into the early stage of Friday, with lows falling into the upper 20s. 

Cooler Stretch Ahead:

With surface pressure remaining somewhat tight, winds remain breezy for Friday. This will continue to pull in much cooler air from the Upper Great Plains and southern Canada. 

As a result, temperatures Friday afternoon will struggle to climb above freezing (32°). Forecast models do keep a smidge of low-level moisture in place, meaning there won't be much if any room for the sun to make an appearance. Despite a wind shift to the southwest Saturday, more of the same can be expected for Saturday. 

Weekend Snow:

A third and much weaker low-pressure system aims to track to the south of the region over the weekend. This will pose for the chance for a few flurries and light snow showers overnight Saturday into the first half of Sunday. 

Again, nothing significant as any accumulations will be minor. Monday features a short-lived break from the onslaught of storm systems that we've been subjected to over the last week. Similar to this weekend, highs will peak in the low 30s under plenty of clouds. Light snow chances then ramp back up as we go into late Tuesday, lasting into Wednesday.

Light snow returns Saturday night

 

A wind driven rain will continue Wednesday evening before turning to drizzle and fog overnight, Thursday morning. Drizzle and fog will continue throughout the morning, with some of the fog becoming dense before sunrise. Light showers will mix back in with a few snow showers during the afternoon, after Noon, with scattered snow flurries Thursday evening. Skies remain mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday, but some clearing may occur Friday evening with temperatures falling into the low 20s.

A quick moving low-pressure system will move across the Midwest, into the Stateline late Saturday night and Sunday. As it does light snow will develop, moving across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Increasing moisture ahead of the low will lead to some accumulating snowfall during that time.

This won't be a big snow event, but a couple inches are possible. This would likely cause some slick conditions through Sunday morning with temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s.   

Wintry precipitation moving in Wednesday night

 

The radar Wednesday evening is beginning to get a little more active as precipitation quickly lifts from south to north across northern Illinois. While surface temperatures remain above freezing, we are beginning to see a little more blue show up on radar. Surface reports from south of Rockford are indicating that rain, sleet, and some snow, has started to fall.

The mixed precipitation developing is due to a process known as 'evaporative cooling'. This is where

the atmosphere cools due to evaporation of a liquid (in this case, the rain/snow). As a result, it causes the freezing level in the atmosphere to lower (the 32-degree line), transitioning the rain showers over to more sleet and snow. This process may last for a couple hours before we begin to see rain spread back north through the evening. The heavier nature of the precipitation is also helping with the transition over to the wintry precipitation.

Snow accumulations will remain light area wide, although a slushy inch or two is possible over south-central Wisconsin and northwest Illinois where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Wind speeds are also expected to increase, gusting 30-35 mph later this evening.

The steadier precipitation will come to an end later tonight as drier air wraps in around the low. This will lead to more drizzle and fog for Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon a mixture of rain and snow are likely once again for the afternoon. Be careful if out driving this evening, as well as Thursday morning.  

Next Winter Storm Slides In, Impacts Begin Late-Wednesday

Winter Alerts Issued:

Earlier this morning, the National Weather Service placed Jo-Daviess County in N. Illinois and Green County in S. Wisconsin under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. This advisory will begin at 6PM this evening, lasting until 9AM Thursday. In the areas that are more favored for accumulating snow, a winter storm warning has been put in place. This stretches from the northeast corner of Colorado to extreme northern Wisconsin. 

Timing Out the Storm:

Prior to sunrise, our next storm system is preparing to eject into the central and southern plains. With how much distance this storm still has to travel in mind, it will take some time for the precipitation to actually reach the Stateline. 

That's why we can expect mainly dry but cloudy conditions for a majority of the daylight hours. It won't be until the late-afternoon and early-evening time frame in which we see our first chance for precipitation come into play. To start, precipitation looks to start off as scattered light snow, but a gradual transition to a mixed precipitation will take place as the evening progresses.

It's also during this time in which we'll have to keep an eye on the rain/snow mix line so where temperatures are sitting at the 32-degree mark. Any southward wobble will result in a bit more snow for areas along and north of Interstate 88. The opposite will occur if we see the rain/snow mix line make a slight jump to the north. 

Wind also picks up this evening, gusting out of the east northeast between 25-35 mph. Especially if we see a bit more snow than rain during this time, travel will become a bit more treacherous. As we inch closer to sunrise Thursday morning, the storm's dry slot is expected to move overhead. This will significantly break apart the activity, leaving us with a few scattered mixed showers Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. 

How Much?:

Similar to how much of this winter season has been for us, we'll more than likely miss another chance for accumulating snow. Areas in extreme northwest Illinois and in southwest Wisconsin will have a better shot at picking up 1"-4". 

Anywhere south and east of that will only be able to pick up a trace to as much as an inch. As mentioned previously, any southward wobble in the storms track will heighten our chances for more snowfall. As the storm system departs, the story then becomes the cold as forecast models do show a considerable amount of cold air filtering in on the backside. Temperatures fall from the upper 30s both today and tomorrow to only 32-degree Friday afternoon.