Rainy Monday, Second System Wednesday into Thursday

First Half Recap:

For the most part, we haven't seen any signs of old man winter this January. In fact, the Rockford Airport has observed only three below-average days since the jump into 2023 occurred. 

Times that number by 4 and you have how many days have ended up above the average mark. As of this morning, the airport's average temperature comes to 32.1°, which ranks 4th for warmest start to the year on record. With that being said, these mild temperatures carry on into the second half of the month. However, expect the weather pattern to be a bit more active this week thanks to a parade of storm systems. 

Rainy Monday:

The first of two storm systems that we are keeping an eye on for this week will be a rainmaker. So far, the drizzle and light rain that is currently showing up on radar is having a tough time reaching the ground as dew point temperatures are sitting 5°-10° below the actual air temperatures. 

But once we get a bit more moisture to work it's way into the atmosphere, we can expect our rain chances to become a bit more steady after sunrise. It's safe to say that you will need to dust off the rain gear and have it with you on your way out. Expect rain to remain steady in nature into mid-day before becoming a lot more isolated for the afternoon hours. A second round of scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will develop at some point during the afternoon hours Monday. 

A good reminder... Severe weather can happen at any point in the year. Yes, even in January. With this particular event however, the local potential for severe weather is extremely low. 

However, there’s a small chance for a cluster of strong to possibly severe storms to develop, which could be strong enough to produce small-sized hail and strong winds. That's why it will be important to still have multiple way to get watches and warning just to be safe and prepared. 

With the associated warm front lifting into northern Illinois, temperatures late this afternoon and early this evening will be inching close to the 50-degree mark. When it is all said and done, most will be able to pick up .25" to .75" of rain. We remain warm overnight into Tuesday as temperatures look to only fall into the upper 30s. 

Cloud cover lingers for much of Tuesday, with temperatures heavily restricted to either side of 40°. Our attention will then turn to a secondary storm system that aims to bring us impacts Wednesday into Thursday, mainly in  the form of a mix of rain and snow. When it pertains to accumulating snow, this morning's guidance placed the best potential to our north and west. However, there is still time for the forecast to change. Something to keep an eye on this evening, Tuesday, and even into early Wednesday!