Snow showers, gusty winds, bitter cold all on tap for Halloween

Halloween Clipper:

A glance at radar this morning shows a very pronounced "clipper" system approaching the region from the northwest. 

Moisture moving in ahead of this potent system has resulted in a band of light snow that is pushing through from west to east.

Timing Out The Impacts:

Any snow that occurs before mid-morning will be short-lived, lasting for about an hour or two. But this early round of snow could end up being enough to cause impacts to the morning commute. 

For the most part, accumulations are likely to be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses. But with temperatures sitting at or below 32-degrees, this could cause some slick conditions for those traveling.

As the surface low tracks overhead late this morning into the early afternoon, the threat for snow showers and even snow squalls increases. Temperatures by this afternoon will end up above freezing, landing in the mid to upper 30s. This should reduce the threat for accumulations on the roads. 

However, the biggest concern for travelers will be the quick drop in visibility that accompanies any intense snow shower or squall. All in all, accumulations will end up less than 1", with snow wrapping up before the evening commute commences. Left behind will be quite the chilly breeze, which will result in wind chill values in the upper teens and low 20s for trick-or-treat hours. As we've been hinting at since late last week, it will VERY important to bundle up the kids before they head out for candy.

Snow Squalls: What exactly are they?

With today's potent clipper system comes the heightened threat for snow squalls. Now, this is a term in which the Stateline has become quite accustomed to hearing over the past few years. 

But what exactly is a snow squall? Snow squalls are short, intense bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds that can lead to significantly poor visibility.

They're quick to move in and quick to move out, which is why accumulations with squalls are on the lower end of the ruler (1" or less). But the rapidly deteriorating conditions underneath a snow squall can cause extremely dangerous conditions for those traveling. Now, say you are already out on the roads and get caught in a snow squall.

At this point in your travels, it will be important to reduce your travel speed, use headlights and hazards when necessary, and allow plenty of travel space between you and other drivers. 

And depending on the threat to travel, the National Weather Service will issue one of two snow squall warnings. The "general" warning tag is frequently used for your typical snow squall conditions. 

If the snow squall poses a more heightened threat to travel, a "significant" tag will be used, which will send a Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) to the mobile phones of those in the path. The same as if you were receiving a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning!

Snow comes in two rounds Tuesday: Morning and afternoon

 

Despite the sunshine Monday afternoon temperatures did not warm much above 40 degrees. Mostly clear skies will take us through most of the evening before cloud cover increases after Midnight. The increase in cloud cover is a result of a strong, fast moving clipper system currently moving out of southern Canada. This low will dip southeast through the Plains and Midwest, reaching the Stateline by Tuesday afternoon.

Moisture moving in ahead of the low will allow a band of snow to develop after roughly 3am Tuesday, spreading from west to east through sunrise. The window of snowfall during the morning will only last for about an hour or two but could cause some impacts for the early morning commute. Any accumulations are likely to remain on grassy and elevated surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses, and with temperatures at or below freezing during that time this could cause some slick conditions for early commuters.

Following the first round of snow in the morning we will see a break mid-morning ahead of the main low-pressure system. This will settle in over southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the late morning and afternoon. As it does, scattered wind-driven snow showers will occur throughout the afternoon. Temperatures warming above freezing should limit any potential accumulation on the roads but with the wind and heavier bursts of snowfall, visibility will drop as a result making it difficult to drive.

Most of the snow will be wrapping up between 4pm-5pm, but blustery northwest winds will continue around 35 mph. With temperatures only warming into the upper 30s wind chills throughout the day will remain in the middle 20s. Those numbers will drop through the evening down into the low 20s after sunset. Make sure you dress appropriately as it will be quite cold during day.

As for snow accumulations, most will remain under an inch. So, while we're not expecting a big snow event for Tuesday, the impacts will definitely be there - especially with it being the first snow of the season. Take it slow, remember winter driving skills, and make sure to dress appropriately.

 

Will it be snowing during trick-or treat hours?

Bundle up friends! The work week starts off on a very cold note, with temps in the mid to upper 20s. We also have a freeze warning that will remain in effect for the entire area until 9AM.  

Despite Monday's sun-filled outlook, a cool west to northwest breeze will restrict afternoon highs to the upper 30s, close to 40°. Clouds increase overnight into Tuesday morning as a rather potent "clipper" system approaches from the northwest. 

As this quick-moving system spirals over the western Great Lakes, it will increase our chances for flurries, snow showers, and even snow squalls. The earliest happening around sunrise, with chances wrapping up sometime during the mid-afternoon hours. 

Overall, accumulations will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces and should end up under 1". But it won't take much for us to see a historic Halloween as the second snowiest on record is 0.1" (2014).  

Travel-wise, the biggest concerns will be reduced visibility and isolated slushy spots. Remember to travel at a slower speed and use extra caution if you plan to travel tomorrow. 

Now, it does look like the snow will wrap up in time for when trick-or-treaters hit the road! However, with tomorrow's snow will come quite the northwesterly wind, with gusts up to 30 mph! 

These winds, combined with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, will bring wind chills values down into the low 20s towards trick-or-treat time. I know. These isn't the most ideal forecast for trick-or-treaters. That's why if you do take your kids out, make sure they pack on those layers to stay warm!

Cold, breezy, snowy Halloween ahead

Halloween across N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin this year is looking cold, breezy and snowy. 

That's right, snowy! Guidance continues to show a clipper-like disturbance sliding in from the northwest, bringing the chance for snow showers. 

Now if we see any accumulations, this would mainly be on elevated and grassy surfaces. Again, this is nothing like back in 2019, the snowiest on record at the airport, when we got 3.1″ of snow!

Temperature-wise, expect highs to peak in the mid to upper 30s. A look at the record books shows that our forecast high of 37-degrees would rank 4th for coldest on record for the Rockford area. 

You would have to go back to 1917 to find Rockford's coldest Halloween where our high peaked at 32-degrees. When out trick or treating, make sure to put on a few extra layers with your costume. Winds will be out the north, gusting up to 25 mph at times. This will make wind chills dip into the lower 20s. 

 

Freeze warning issued for all of northern Illinois

Few Sunday Showers:

Friday's cold front meant business as temperatures fell from the upper 60s Friday afternoon to barely making it out of the 40s Saturday. 

This cooling trend will continue as our Sunday features plenty of cloud cover. This will prevent us from efficiently warming up, leaving highs in the low 40s. Along with today's cloud cover does come a chance for a few afternoon showers.

Freeze Warning Issued:

The bigger weather headline is the bitter cold that arrives Monday morning. Earlier this morning, the National Weather Service placed the entire Stateline under a FREEZE WARNING. 

This will run from 12AM to 9AM Monday as lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 20s. Again, make sure before heading to bed this evening that you are taking preventative measures to keep your crops and plants safe as well as your pipes. Pipes should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

Snow on Halloween? It's possible!

Historically, the chance for snow on the spooky holiday is very low for Rockford. 

There are only 7 Halloweens on record in which snow was observed, 2 of which were measurable. 

Who can forget when the Stateline encountered the snowiest Halloween on record in 2019 where 3.1" of snow was observed at the Rockford Airport. 

Well, I'm here to tell you that mother nature may shake things up for this year's Halloween. So much so that an incoming weak disturbance may bring the opportunity for flurries to fly.

Now, forecast models this morning disagreed on the strength of the Tuesday's disturbance. The European model came in with a much more potent and clipper-like disturbance, bringing the chance for not only a few flurries, but also a few bursts of snow. 

The GFS or the American model was a bit weaker with this disturbance, bringing a lower chance for bursts of snow to occur across N. Illinois. But this is something to keep an eye on over the weekend. 

As we've mentioned on multiple occasions, we are still expecting a cold Halloween. One that features partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 30s. So it goes without saying that kids will need to add a few extra layers along with there costume this Halloween.

Northern Illinois's first freeze warning will go into effect tonight

Big changes are on the horizon thanks to a strong cold front sliding through this afternoon. 

Along with a few storms, this cold front will also help shift our winds to the northwest, allowing the big rush of cold air to commence. 

Temperatures will drop from the upper 60s early this afternoon to the upper 20s for some by Saturday morning. Others will land in the low 30s. 

For that, the National Weather Service has placed Jo-Daviess, Carroll, and Stephenson County as well as Green County up in S. Wisconsin under the first freeze warning of the fall season. This will run from 1AM to 8AM Saturday. Make sure you are taking preventative steps to keep your crops and plants safe as well as your pipes. 

Most if not all of Saturday will be dry. The day kicks off with frost and sunshine, with clouds increasing late in the afternoon/evening. 

Despite the drier outlook, highs will struggle to climb out of the 40s thanks to a cool northeast wind. The chance for rain increases overnight into Sunday, with temperatures cooling in the upper 30s. A stronger wave of cold air is expected to spill in on the backside of Sunday's system, bringing overnight lows back into the low 20s by Monday morning!

 

Tumbling temperatures expected Friday afternoon

 

Temperatures the last several days have been well above average, but big changes are in store as we near the end of October. Scattered light rain showers will continue Thursday evening adding up to an additional couple tenths of an inch through Friday morning. High temperatures Thursday warmed into the middle 60s but are not expected to fall much through the evening thanks to an abundance of cloud cover and a warm, southerly wind.

Friday's high temperature will occur before Noon ahead of a cold front that'll sweep through the region Friday afternoon. Behind the front temperatures will drop, falling into the 40s by late Friday afternoon. Winds will also increase, shifting to the northwest with gusts around 25 mph.

A few lingering showers are possible during the afternoon Friday, but skies will begin to clear with drier air moving in Friday night and Saturday morning. This will allow temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30s.

Be sure to grab the jacket before heading out the door Friday because you'll need it by the afternoon.  

How cold will it be for Halloween?

The spookiest day of the year is now less than a week away. While you put the final pieces of your Halloween costume together, you might want to add some warmer clothing to the checklist. 

The coldest air of the season thus far is scheduled to spill into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. 

This will severely limit high temperatures to the upper 30s Tuesday afternoon. By the time trick-or-treating gets underway, temperatures for most will likely have fallen into the mid 30s.

On the plus side, we aren't expecting precipitation of any kind at this moment in time to ruin the spooky festivities. But keep in mind, there is still time for the forecast to change. 

High pressure over the central plains will keep things under control to round out the month of October.

This is much different compared to Halloween 2019 where 3.1" of snow fell at the Rockford Airport, resulting in the snowiest Halloween on record.

Wet day ahead as strong cold front nears

Wet Day Ahead:

Before you step out this morning, make sure the rain gear is ready to go! Radar is already busy prior to the early-day commute as it shows a wave of light showers pushing through.

 

 

Showers will likely stick around for much of day, at times in a widespread fashion. Highs because of today's cloud cover and showery outlook will be restricted to the upper 60s. 

The coverage of our rain chances will go down as we head into tonight. Rainfall amounts should range from .25" to .75". But with cloud cover and a warm south and southwest breeze sticking around, expect a slow drop in temperatures. Lows by Friday morning will fall into the low 60s.  

Friday's Cold Front:

The focus then turns to our next cold front which is scheduled to pass through early in the afternoon. With it's passage will come a chance for a few showers as well as a wind shift to the northwest. 

It's this wind shift that will start the process into allowing the coldest air of the season thus far to spill southward from the Canadian prairies. Highs will fall from the low 70s Friday to the low 50s Saturday to the low 40s by Sunday afternoon.

Power hurricane Otis makes landfall in Mexico

A "nightmare scenario" has unfolded overnight as hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico as a powerful category 5 hurricane. 

Maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall were at 165 mph. This storm underwent a historic round of rapid intensification Tuesday, strengthening from a tropical storm to a dangerous Category 5 hurricane in a matter of 12 hours.

 

This is uncharted territory for areas in and around Acapulco as no major Hurricane has threatened this region in recorded history. 

In fact, the last hurricane to approach this region from the south was an unnamed Category 1 in 1951. 

These areas are likely without power, getting battered by strong winds, torrential downpours, and life-threatening storm surge.

Showers end by sunrise, another round arrives overnight

Morning Showers:

Cloud cover and shower chances increased following Tuesday's record-breaking warmth. 

For the most part, the heaviest rain has remained south of Interstate 88. Shower chances will linger into the early-day commute, but should come to a close around or shortly after sunrise. From there, expect dry but cloudy conditions. Today's cloud cover will result in a much cooler afternoon compared to Tuesday, with most landing in the upper 60s. 

More Rain Overnight:

Come Wednesday night, a stronger disturbance will track into the region from the southwest, allowing rain chances to quickly return. Once again, expect showers to move in around midnight, with chances lasting into the first half of Thursday. 

Again, heavy downpours will be the biggest concern, followed by the possibility for thunder and lightning. Thankfully, severe weather is highly unlikely with tonight's rainfall. As this low continues its northeast trek, a few more showers and storms will be possible Thursday afternoon into Friday. With a mostly cloudy sky in place, highs will once again be limited to the upper 60s, close to 70-degrees.

Friday's Cold Front:

This active stretch carries on into Friday as we see a very strong cold front push in from the west. Ahead of the front, we briefly enter what is known as the warm sector of the storm system. In this area may be enough ingredients for a conditional severe threat Friday afternoon and evening. 

But the bigger story with this cold front will be the plunge in temperatures that follows. Highs Friday will peak in the low 70s, then, drop into the low 50s for Saturday. It's not until Sunday night into Monday we see the coldest air spill into the Great Lakes, which will drop overnight lows into the upper 20s Sunday night and Monday night. Just a heads up, this will likely be cold enough for our first fall hard freeze!

Gusty winds Tuesday push highs near record warmth

Strong winds can be expected the next several days as temperatures continue to climb well above average for late October. Highs Monday warmed into the upper 60s and low 70s area wide with a gusty southeast wind. At times, wind gusts reached 30-35 mph. While winds will subside some this evening, look for the breeze to continue into the overnight. Temperatures tonight will fall into the middle 50s.

Southwest winds increase Tuesday gusting as high as 40 mph during the afternoon. This will bring afternoon temperatures into the middle and upper 70s. The record high for October 24th is 80 degrees set back in 1963. I don't think we'll reach record territory, but we'll be close.

The next few days will be windy, so it may be a good idea to secure any loose outdoor holiday decorations Monday evening. Winds could gust even higher Tuesday evening as rain showers move in. Southwest winds continue Wednesday, increasing slightly for Thursday afternoon. It'll remain breezy Friday before winds shift to the north by the weekend. This will be followed by quickly tumbling temperatures with highs in the 50s, dropping into the 40s next week.  

Daylight Saving 2023: When do clocks fall back?

It's hard to believe that in two weeks time, daylight SAVING time comes to a close. 

On the morning of November 5th, clocks will "fall back" one hour at 2AM, granting most people an extra hour of sleep. 

Briefly diving into the history, the Standard Time Act in 1918 was the first introduction of daylight saving time to clocks across America. 

Also known as "war time,", this measure lasted from spring to fall and was intended to cut energy costs during World War I. This act is also responsible for the five time zones that are in place today.

The biggest change however comes with our sunrises and sunsets. For instance, today's sunrise will occur around 7:17AM, with nightfall happening a few minutes after the 6AM hour. 

Sunrises after the time change get pushed back, closer to 6:30AM. The affiliated sunset will occur around 4:45PM. From there, the amount of daylight will get shorter until the winter solstice on Dec. 21st. As you known, it's not until March where we mess with our clocks to start the process all over again!

Less windy Sunday, 70s briefly return

Why So Windy Saturday:

The Stateline felt quite the wind on Saturday. Peak gusts ranged between 30-40 mph, with Rockford observing the strongest gust at 38 mph. 

Why so windy? Well, it was because we were transitioning from Friday night's low pressure system to the high pressure system that's settling in for today. The pressure in between the two systems was quite tight, resulting in Saturday's gusty winds.

Less Windy Sunday:

Thankfully, winds won't be the big headline today as that high pressure system moves overhead. In fact, winds today will be light out of the north-northeast, registering only at 5 to 15 mph. 

However, it will be that light wind that brings cooler temperatures for the afternoon, resulting in mid 50s for highs. Patchy frost will be possible ahead of today's sun-filled forecast. Clouds will gradually move back in overnight, bringing a slight chance for shower or two towards Monday morning's commute. Lows will register near 40-degrees.

70s Return:

Expect Monday to feature a few passing showers, especially early on in the day. Some sunshine will poke out during the afternoon, which should be enough to brings highs back into the 60s. 

Forecast models then show a warm front will slide through late Monday night into Tuesday, with winds ramping up on the backside of the front. 

This time however, winds will be warm out of the southwest, bringing an unseasonably warm air-mass to the Midwest and the Great Lakes. Highs because of this will peak in the mid to upper 70s Tuesday, landing 7-10 degrees above average. As of this morning, our forecast high is 76-degrees. If this were to verify, this would end up happening a few days after Rockford's average last 75-degree day which is October 19th. Temperatures from there all depend on the position of said warm front as it will shift back and forth Wednesday through Friday.

Increasing sun Friday, windy start to the weekend

Recent Rainfall:

As we've stated on multiple occasions, October has been quite the month for the rainfall department. So much so that we've seen significant improvements in the Stateline's drought situation. 

To think in early September, there was a portion of the region experiencing an extreme drought. But after picking up around 4" of rain prior to the release of Thursday's drought monitor, most of the region now sits under the abnormally dry category! 

Sunshine Returns:

Rain won't be the focus for Friday. In fact, lingering cloud cover is expected to clear out as the morning progresses, leaving us with decent sun. The one aspect of the forecast that will hinder our warm up will be today's cool northwesterly breeze. This will leave afternoon highs in the low 60s. Tonight starts off dry. But a weak impulse sliding to our north and east will help bring a few more clouds, along with a slim chance for a stray shower or two. 

Saturday's Winds:

That chance should come to an end quickly, leaving us dry for Saturday. But the focus then switches to the rather gusty wind that develops for the afternoon. Winds will take a quick turn to the northwest, gusting up to 30 to 35 mph at times. 

This wind will play a big role in the spillage of cooler air that takes place across the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Expect overnight lows to fall into the mid 30s, which may be cool enough for frost to develop. Despite a partly cloudy sky Sunday, highs will be limited to the mid to upper 50s. Warmer flow settles in for most of next week, placing highs close to 70-degrees by Tuesday. The big uncertainty with the longevity of this warming trend is the timing of our next cold front. 

Improving drought conditions

 

The latest drought monitor released from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows improving drought conditions across Illinois and Wisconsin following the last few weeks of heavy rainfall.

October's monthly rainfall total has reached four inches, 2.37 inches above the month-to-date average. We'll see a few scattered rain showers throughout the evening Thursday, with drier conditions heading into the overnight.

Abnormally dry conditions continue in north-central and northwest Illinois, but the moderate and severe drought conditions have been eliminated.

Improvements in the drought also occurred in Wisconsin where both moderate and severe drought conditions were eliminated in southern Wisconsin, but still remain elsewhere across the state. Additional rainfall Thursday will help some, but then conditions dry out heading into the weekend.

Next week does appear to be a little more active regarding the chance for rain, with rain showers returning as early as Tuesday. The coverage and intensity of the rain will depend on when a cold front passes through.