New Year's Eve forecast

 

Winter finally decided to make an appearance as we round out 2023. Light snow showers and flurries will continue through the rest of Sunday evening, tapering off after 2am. Some of the flurry activity may mix in with a little drizzle or freezing drizzle with air temperatures sitting just below freezing (32 degrees).

While widespread issues on the roads are not likely tonight, patchy slick spots remain possible - especially on bridges and overpasses, county and country roads, and roads that haven't been treated. Be careful if out tonight and remain aware that you could run into patchy black ice.

Skies will remain cloudy through the better part of the night, clearing some around daybreak Monday. High temperatures Sunday afternoon only warmed into the low 30s - and while still above average (average high is 30 degrees) the last several days have been a little cooler with temperatures in the 30s. In fact, Sunday's high of 32 degrees was the first 32-degree day recorded this month! The last time the high temperature reached 32 degrees, or below, was back on November 28th when the high temperature was only 21 degrees!

Temperatures to start off the new year will remain cool, but seasonable with highs in the low to mid 30s. A few flurries are possible Wednesday with another chance for some light snow returning for the weekend.

2023 comes to a close with freezing drizzle and light snow

A clipper system diving into the Great Lakes is set to bring a busy end to 2023.

Overnight, all of our northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin counties were placed under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

For most, it runs until noon. Freezing drizzle has led to icy roads in Green County, WI as well as Carroll, Stpehenson, Whiteside, Ogle, Lee, and Jo-Daviess County in northern IL. 

In a similar fashion to yesterday, give yourself extra travel time and travel with caution. Especially if your morning travels take you over an elevated surface such as a bridge or overpass. 

 

 

 

As the warm nose or layer in the low levels of the atmosphere erodes, a transition from freezing rain/drizzle to snow is expected before sunrise. Now, it goes without saying that the longer freezing rain/drizzle remains as the primary precipitation type, the less snow will accumulate. 

Snow showers remain a possibility in a scattered fashion into the afternoon and evening, leaving behind about .5" or less.

Again, with temperatures sitting in the low 30s, this will make for additional slick spots for those traveling to any New Years Eve celebrations. 

As this clipper system pushes further east, high pressure over the Midwest will take it's place. Cloud cover will decrease overnight, resulting in a mostly sunny start to 2024. Temperature-wise, we keep the chill that is in place today as afternoon highs Monday are set to peak in the low 30s.

Low visibility, black ice likely for Saturday morning travelers

The final weekend of 2023 is starting off cold and foggy. Clearing skies and light surface winds have allowed pockets of dense fog to form. 

For that reason, the National Weather Service has placed Green County in S. WI as well as Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside County in N. IL under a Dense Fog Advisory. 

This advisory will run until 9AM as fog will likely reduce visibility to a 1/4 mile or less. 

Now, because temperatures are well below the 32° mark, freezing fog is likely this morning.

What exactly is freezing fog? Freezing fog is consisted of tiny supercooled water droplets that can instantly freeze to any exposed surface. 

This will cause roads, bridges and overpasses to become slick with black ice this morning. Travel with caution for that as well as the low visibility. 

Fog will begin to dissipate mid to late morning, leaving us partly cloudy into the afternoon. From there, expect cloud cover to gradually increase as our next storm system approaches. 

This will be in the form of an Alberta clipper system which aims to bring one last chance for measurable snow before we jump into 2024. 

Again, we're not talking much. Some of our locales may even miss out on tomorrow's chances. But expect scattered snow showers to stick around for a good chunk of the day before tapering off Sunday evening. In the end, accumulations will remain under 1". Again, not much. But this may be enough for slick spots to form for those heading out for New Years Eve festivities. Use extra caution if traveling Sunday evening!

Illinois saw more tornadoes than any other state in 2023

What if I told you that the heart of tornado alley, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, did not end up seeing the most tornadoes in 2023? 

For that answer, you would have to look a bit closer to home. In fact, very close as Illinois observed more tornadoes than any other state in 2023.

In total, 120 tornadoes were observed across the state, 58 of which occurred in the forecast area listed under the National Weather Service in Chicago. 

The most active day was March 31st where 37 tornadoes touched down. According to the record books, this is the second most in Illinois for a single calendar day behind April 19th, 1996 (39). Included in March 31st outbreak is the Rockford EF-1 and the Davis Junction/Belvidere EF-1 tornado.

Dry conditions settle in ahead of New Years Eve snow chance

El Nino showed it's true colors on Thursday. As quick as the snow was to accumulate, there wasn't much to show for it as most of it melted by sunset. In the end, the Rockford Airport came in with 1.5", which brings our monthly total up to 2.4". 

This lands 7" below Rockford's average snowfall for the month of December. Snow-lovers, I've got more of a reason to shield your ears. The last time we were able to enjoy a December with above-average snow was back in 2016 (16.1"). Yikes.

Any precipitation that lingers into our Friday morning should taper off by mid-morning. If traveling, keep an eye out for a few slick spots. Moisture leftover from yesterday's mixed precipitation may freeze over as temperatures will be sitting near 32°. 

Cloud cover hangs tight for a good chunk of the day, with highs peaking in the upper 30s. As this stubborn storm system finally exits, cloud cover will decrease into the overnight hours. This will leave us partly cloudy, with lows falling into the mid 20s.

Saturday remains dry. We'll be able to enjoy some sun before clouds move back in during the afternoon. In a similar fashion to today, high temperatures will be limited to the upper 30s. 

Old man winter wants to throw one last curveball before we jump into 2024. 

A weak clipper system diving into the Great Lakes will bring the chance for scattered light snow Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. 

A few snow showers may linger into Sunday evening before tapering off early Sunday night. For now, totals should stay under 1", but use caution if you plan to travel to any New Year's Eve events.

Icy and slick conditions Thursday night and Friday morning

 

Roads across northwest Illinois are becoming snow covered once again as temperatures remain close to freezing (32 degrees) and the light snow continues to fall. This is also where the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9pm. To the east more of a mixed precipitation can be found, but still expect some isolated slick conditions through Friday morning.

The majority of the precipitation will come to an end around Midnight but there will still be some light flurry and drizzle activity into Friday morning. Icy and slick conditions will remain possible through the morning commute, especially on secondary roads, bridges and overpasses.

Please make sure you are driving with caution if out Thursday evening or early Friday. Temperatures Friday afternoon will warm above freezing so improving road conditions should occur during that time.

Click here for updated road conditions across Illinois

Click here for updated road conditions across Wisconsin 

Winter weather advisory issued, wet roads and reduced visibility likely

For the first time since December 7th, the potential for measurable snow is on the table.

A slow-moving cut-off low pressure system spinning over S. Illinois will allow precipitation to overtake the region by the mid-morning hours. Thanks to cooler flow out of the north, precipitation for most of today's wintry shenanigans will fall as light snow. 

  

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside County. This will run from 9AM to 9PM today. At times, rain could mix in, especially to the south and east of the Rockford metro where temps have a better shot at climbing into the upper 30s. 

Models then show precipitation sticking around into the evening before tapering off early Friday. While accumulations appear likely, it's important to take into account the recent warmth and how that will play a role on road conditions.

A look at the almanac shows that high temperatures over the past 5 days have been trending 10 to as much as 25° above late-December standards. This will leave pavement temperatures way too warm for today's snowfall to impact main roads. 

If you plan to travel at any point during the day, roads will be wet. Also, keep in mind that extra caution will be needed on elevated surfaces such as overpasses and bridges as slushy spots will be possible. As far as accumulations are concerned, most locales will end up near an 1", with slightly higher totals to our north and west!

Friday is the day we here in the western Great Lakes say adieu, aufwiedersehen, gesundheit, farewell to this stubborn low (any Willy Wonka fans?). And I'm talking about the Gene Wilder version! 

Clouds stick around for a good chunk of the day before clearing up into Friday night. Highs to round out the work week will land on either side of the 40-degree mark. Same for Saturday. 

Early in the morning on New Years Eve, a weak clipper system will help slide a cold front through. With it comes the chance for a rain/snow mix as well as the potential for much cooler temperatures. New Years Eve and New Years Day will feel a whole lot different than Christmas as temperatures are set to trend 18 to as much as 25-degrees colder. Expect highs in the low 30s both days.

Few peeks of sun Wednesday following several cloudy days

 

Even though it was for a brief time Wednesday, it was nice to see some sunshine following nearly a week stretch of cloudy days. The last six days have recorded cloudy skies, along with drizzle, dense fog, and rain. In fact, on Christmas Day Rockford recorded 0.57 inches of rain making it the second rainiest Christmas on record for Rockford following 1945 when 1.25 inches. In total, there have been 14 cloudy days during the month of December. Despite the cloud cover the month-to-date average temperature is 37.2 degrees, making it the second warmest December on record so far.

Whatever clearing we see through Wednesday evening will fill back in with clouds Wednesday night as low-pressure spins through southern Illinois. A secondary low currently over Michigan will move west across Lake Michigan into Wisconsin, then into Illinois Thursday morning and afternoon. This will bring a period of light snow, mixed in with rain, throughout the day.

Skies will remain cloudy through the afternoon Thursday, as well as Friday morning. By late Friday afternoon we should begin to see a little more sunshine returning Saturday.

Wintry mix arrives Thursday morning, low impacts to travel

Meteorological winter is known as the coldest three month period of the calendar year. 

However, you wouldn't know its winter as snowfall has lacked big-time along with the fact that it's been extremely mild. So much so that 20 of December's days have come in above-average, which includes the 3rd warmest Christmas on record. 

   

All in all, bad news for snow-lovers. However, a slow-moving system over the Midwest will track south of the region come Thursday. 

On the low's northern side, a wave of precipitation is expected to slide in off of Lake Michigan. One that may bring some wintry precipitation. Now, it goes without saying that an event like this at this time of the year favors snow. But, before one gets too excited, other aspects of the forecast will severely impact precipitation type and accumulations. 

With that being said, we can expect the chance for a snow/wintry mix to arrive shortly after sunrise, continuing into the late-morning hours

Again, impacts to the morning commute, if any, will be low as pavement temperatures will be too warm from the rather mild December we've had. 

In fact, the best chance for any accumulations with Thursday's event will be to our north and west. A changeover to rain will then occur by the afternoon as temperatures become warm enough.

Any snow that does manage to fall will melt quickly because of the changeover and because highs are to peak in the upper 30s.

Precipitation will linger well into Thursday evening, potentially into the early stage of Friday. As the low pulls away, the effects of a high pressure system to our northwest will quiet things down. Expect Friday afternoon to feature a bit more sunshine, with highs climbing back into the low 40s.

Clouds linger following historic Christmas Day

Christmas was on for the record books! Yesterday's high of 57° now sits as the 3rd warmest on record with records dating back to 1905. In the rainfall department, Rockford picked up .57" which is now the 2nd wettest behind 1945 (1.25").

 

 

With really nowhere to move, the stacked occluded low over the central plains will help keep clouds in place the next few days. 

As the storm system creeps closer to Illinois, colder air near the low's center will filter in, resulting in a huge temperature drop. Expect highs to peak in the upper 30s under mostly cloudy skies. 

 

Skies remain mostly cloudy overnight as well as for a good chunk of the day Wednesday. Despite winds being out of the east-northeast, high temperatures will peak in the upper 30s and low 40s. 

By Thursday, forecast models show the center of the low spiraling into S. Illinois. Northeasterly flow on the low's northern side will filter in a plume of moisture, resulting in rain showers.

The biggest uncertainty with Thursday's outcome is precipitation type as models couldn't put a finger on how much cold air will be available. If snow were to form, it would be mainly be during the morning hours when temperatures are cold enough.

Temps climb back above freezing by the afternoon, landing in the upper 30s. So, any lingering precipitation should change over to mainly rain before chances end by the evening. 

Widespread rain to disrupt Christmas travel

Impacts to holiday travel begin today as a disturbance lifts into the region from the Midwest. Along with it comes a plume of moisture, resulting in widespread showers as early as mid-morning. 

Once rain begins, we can expect several hours of steady and soaking showers, with chances lasting well into the evening. Rain is expected to taper off before the midnight hour, leaving behind rainfall totals in the .15"-.35" range. As for temperatures, we’re in for another seasonably mild day, with highs topping out in the mid 40s, only falling into the low 40s Friday night. 

While clouds hangs tight for Saturday, tomorrow will be a smoother travel day as all we're tracking is the chance for patchy fog and drizzle. Temperatures will continue their ascent, peaking in the low 50s.

Forecast models came in with a slower approach with the Christmas Day system, resulting in a dry start to Christmas Eve. But as we enter the late afternoon-early evening hours, winds will increase and so will the chance for scattered showers.   

As of this morning, we're forecasting a high of 55°, which is our record high for Christmas Eve. There is also the likelihood that we'll see a few overnight low records broken as temperatures aren't going to fall much over the holiday weekend.  

Christmas Day will also be one for the record books, both temperature-wise and rainfall-wise. Highs will peak in the low 50s, which would place this year's Christmas in the top 10 for warmest on record.

Travel impacts increase Christmas Day as showers remain widespread for most of the day. Overall, totals will range from .5" to 1.5". 

As we've discussed on Thursday, all Rockford has to do is receive more than .32" and we will have a top 5 wettest Christmas on record! With the low close by, rain chances carry on into Tuesday.

Light rain Friday, chances increase Christmas day

Cloudy skies and rain chances dominate the end of the week thanks to two upper-level disturbances. 

The first arrives this morning, bringing the chance for a few sprinkles this afternoon. 

A slightly more organized disturbance will allow rain to become likely late Friday morning, with chances lasting through much of the afternoon. Overall, most if not all of the accumulations will occur on Friday, landing in the .15"-.35" range.

Saturday will be an easier day for holiday travelers. A ridge of high pressure slides in from the west, leaving conditions dry but cloudy. Also on the table will the a chance for patchy fog and drizzle. 

Forecast models came in this morning with a slower approach with the low that will be responsible for the rain on Christmas day. This means that Sunday will be mostly dry, leaving conditions good for those traveling for the holiday.

Showers become likely once again late Sunday night into Monday as this low swings into Iowa. Along with the Christmas day showers comes an increase in winds, which combined with the rainfall will make traveling a bit tricky. 

Totals will be higher the further west you go, landing in the .5" to 1.5" range. All Rockford has to do is observe more than .32" and we will have a top 5 wettest Christmas on record! 

Today is the shortest day of the calendar year! Here's why!

TODAY'S THE DAY! Today's the day we make the seasonal switch from autumn to winter.

In central time, the winter solstice occurs at 9:27PM, which is the moment where the sun's rays are focused on the Tropic of Capricorn.  

This is why today is known as the shortest day of the year for the northern hemisphere, featuring 9 hours and 5 minutes of daylight. In the southern hemisphere, it's the longest day of the year as they switch from spring to summer. 

The forecast however for the first few days of winter will be far from winter-like. Temperatures become extremely mild, with highs peaking in the 50s Saturday through Christmas. 

In fact, we could just miss or briefly touch our record high on Christmas Eve which is 55° (1982, 2019, 2021). 

Along with the warm temperatures comes several days where rain will be a part of the forecast. Light rain will be likely late Friday morning into Friday afternoon, and then again during Christmas Day.
 

Rare warmth, heavy rain set to return Christmas weekend

From the bone-chilling teens to the balmy 50s. 

That's the type of temperature swing we'll see from Christmas Day last year to this year! A glimpse at the record books show that only 4% of Christmases in Rockford have reached the 50° mark. 

The last time this occurred, 2019 when Rockford observed it's warmest Christmas on record (59°). If our forecast high of 53° were to verify, it would breach the top 5 for warmest on record.

On the flip side, this rare holiday warmth does come with the potential for widespread rain. 

Rich moisture surging northward will interact with a stalled boundary, resulting in several rounds of showers and heavy downpours for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Something to monitor if you are scheduled to travel. In the mix will also be the chance for a thunderstorm or two.

 

Forecast models continue to paint a picture that leaves the Stateline 1"-2" of rain, with higher amounts falling west of the Mississippi. 

A second glimpse at the record books shows that Rockford's wettest Christmas occurred back in 1945 where the airport observed 1.25". A record in which at this moment may be in jeopardy. Showers carry on into Tuesday before a drier weather pattern spills in for the second half of the week.

Warming continues, showers return Thursday & Friday

Yesterday's big weather discussion was the impact clear skies had on our overnight temperatures. 

Well, we're experiencing the complete opposite this morning as a majority of the night was spent under a mostly cloudy sky. This has left little to no room for any solar radiation to be re-emitted back into space, resulting in a warmer start to our day!  

 

This warmer start will provide a nice base for highs this afternoon as most will peak in the low 40s. This all happening under a partly cloudy sky. 

Clouds do thicken up overnight into Thursday, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s. 

 

 

From there, we'll be keeping an eye on a few upper-level waves. The first is set to arrive shortly after sunrise Thursday morning. This will help keep clouds in place for much of the day. 

Along with Thursday's cloud cover does come the opportunity for a few scattered sprinkles and light showers during the afternoon. 

A secondary wave takes aim at the Stateline late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. This will also bring the chance for a few showers. 

Though in a similar fashion to Thursday, this round of showers won't be much. Highs to round out the work week will end up in the low 40s.

Heavy rain possible over Christmas

 
The weather pattern is set to turn a little more active through the holiday weekend. Several storm systems moving in from the west will bring numerous rounds of showers into the Stateline, along with the risk of heavy rain.

High pressure to the southeast will keep conditions quiet through most of Tuesday night. Temperatures during the afternoon warmed into the low to mid 30s, which is seasonable for mid-December. Under a partly cloudy sky night overnight lows will dip into the mid-20s.

Temperatures will continue their climb Wednesday afternoon into the low 40s as a southerly wind brings in the warm air. High pressure to the north, however, will help shift winds to the east as a stationary boundary sinks south of the area Wednesday night. As it does, a couple storm systems out west will begin to move across the Plains bringing with them an increase in moisture. As the moisture moves along the stalled boundary several rounds of showers will occur, taking us through Christmas Eve and Day.

Dew point temperatures rising into the 40s, even upper 40s, for several days is rare for late December. This will lead to some heavy rain, and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two, across the Midwest - including the Stateline - Sunday night and Monday. Rainfall totals could rise between an inch to two inches between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

The rainy pattern will continue into early next week before drying out towards the middle to end of the week.

While temperatures are expected to warm into the 50s through Christmas, the high moisture may lead to more fog and low clouds which would keep temperatures a little cooler. If we do end up seeing fog through the holiday, it has the potential to become dense in some locations which could impact travel. So those with plans to travel should monitor the forecast throughout the week.

 

Traveling for Christmas? Have the rain gear ready!

It looks like Santa will have to trade in his warm red coat and hat for a rain coat and umbrella this year. 

Historically since 1950, Rockford sees a White Christmas 44% of the time. 

But as climate outlooks have hinted at over the last few weeks, the weather pattern come Christmas time would feature a higher chance for above-average temperatures and precipitation. Both remain true this morning.  So it's safe to say that the chances for a white Christmas remain unlikely.

Forecast models show a low-pressure system sliding into the central plains Sunday afternoon.

Moisture out ahead of it will bring the chance for a few showers late Christmas Eve, with rain becoming more likely by Christmas morning. 

Now, we are still 6 days out, so there will be subtle changes in the overall strength and track of this system as the holiday approaches. 

 

While it won't be the warmest Christmas on record, temperatures will get close as highs aim to peak in the low 50s. If you recall, the warmest on record occurred not too long ago, 59-degrees in 2020.