Breezy stretch ahead with only isolated shower chances

 Rain chances will remain limited through the weekend, but our winds will pick up a bit as high pressure pulls away. Isolated shower chances will be possible starting around midnight tonight, but dry air may limit how much of that makes it to the surface.

A warm front lifting through the area Sunday morning may allow for a few additional showers and possibly even a rumble of thunder through the afternoon. Highest coverage of precipitation will remain to the North closer to the low-pressure center. Sunday evening into the night will be drying out again.

Another chance for a spotty shower or two will be possible along a passing cold front Monday morning, but again dry air may limit coverage of the rain and how much makes it to the surface. Much of the daytime hours Monday will be dry, but another disturbance Monday evening may develop a few scattered showers. I believe this will be the best chance for a shower, but even then, the coverage will be less than 30%. Many in the Stateline could remain completely dry through Tuesday morning.

The higher confidence is in the winds on the way for the next few days, and their associated impacts on temperatures. Sunday will feature winds out of the South, gusting near 20-30 mph. This will allow for temperatures to reach near 70 degrees in some spots. Monday will be the windiest, with gusts near 30-40 mph from the West-Northwest. High temperatures will still reach near 60 degrees Monday. Tuesday will feature Northwest gusts of 35-35 mph, keeping highs in the low 50s.

Tuesday's cool down will be short-lived, as we will see a quick return to near average temperatures for the middle of the week. This is due to a "cutoff" low pressure system that will develop across the Southwestern portions of the country, funneling moisture and small disturbances our direction Thursday into Friday. This will bring our next better chances for precipitation, along with milder weather that continues into Friday (highs in the upper 60s!).

Seasonable weekend with drier conditions continuing

 With our second week of April now passing by, we experienced a much drier week this week than the previous. The start of April was quite active in terms of precipitation and thunderstorms across much of the Mississippi River Valley, however as we go through more of the month the term "April Showers Brings May Flowers" may not be the case this year.

Starting with today, we'll have another seasonable day in store very similar to yesterday. Temperatures today will be in the low 60's with cloud cover gradually building through the afternoon. Heading into tonight, mostly cloudy skies will be around as an upper-level disturbance moves through. If timing comes together the combination of lift from the disturbance along with some moisture present may be enough to force a very isolated shower in some locations tonight but besides that today will remain clear!

60-degree temperatures will stick around the next two days as well, as tomorrow may even make a run at 70 degrees! Tomorrow will be lacking sunshine though which may make things feel a little cooler and may actually inhibit us from getting to 70 degrees. Through the next two days though, a low-pressure system will move in from our west which will cause breezy conditions especially after the mild cold front moves through in the morning.

With limited precipitation chances looking likely over the next week not much improvement is expected out of the drought monitor heading into next week. Some locations of Northern Illinois are still in severe drought criteria which is not ideal for planting season.

 

Not much relief is expected to come in the next week either as we'll continue to stay dry for much of the week. Our best chances for precipitation right now look to be Monday morning ahead of the cold front then on Friday as a strong surge of Gulf Moisture is expected to be funneled into the region which would be enough fuel for some showers Thursday and into Friday.

Mild weekend with only slim rain chances

 A weather system will bypass the Stateline Sunday into Monday. The center of this low pressure will remain North of us, keeping the highest coverage of rain showers North of the Stateline. Our main impacts will be a stronger breeze with winds flowing into that low pressure. Winds will remain somewhat strong Sunday through Tuesday.

The Southerly wind drawing into the weather system will provide additional boosts to temperatures, with highs making it back into the 60s both Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will only be back in the 40s and near 50°.

Saturday will be dry, but Sunday into Monday could provide a few isolated showers. Highest coverage of any rain will be primarily North of the Stateline in Wisconsin, but a spotty shower or two will be possible Sunday morning into the afternoon.

The trailing cold front on the Northern surface low will pass through the Stateline Monday morning, providing another chance for a slim shower or two. Any rain we see will not last long or amount to much given the lack of sufficient forcing overhead. Some could stay completely dry through early next week. Monday's cold front will start to bring temperatures down, with highs only near 50° again Tuesday.

Sunshine, above-average temperatures return for the weekend

No need for the umbrella the next couple of day as high pressure builds in. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures but also a good deal of sunshine to round out the work week. Now, Friday does begin with lots of clouds. However, as the dry air filters in, expect skies to turn partly sunny for the afternoon hours. High temperatures will somewhat be limited thanks to a light wind out of the north and northeast, leaving most in the low 50s. No complaints as it should still be a pleasant afternoon.

Expect this trend to carry on into the weekend as this high pressure sits close by. This time around, it will be to our southeast, allowing winds to realign out of the south and southwest. This will help bring high temperatures back to mid-April standards, landing most in the low 60s Saturday afternoon. Sunday features a bit more cloud cover, though this warming trend will continue as winds remain organized out of the south. This will allow afternoon highs to surge into the upper 60s, close to 70°.

Forecast models continue to home in on a pair of cold fronts that look to sweep through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Monday. 

The first arrives around sunrise whereas the second comes in late in the afternoon. This will help dial back our temperatures for the start of next week while also bringing our next best chance for some rain. Highs will fall back into the low 60s Monday, then into the 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Weekend outlook: Warmer with only slim rain chances

 After a few seasonably cool days, temperatures will rise back above average heading toward the weekend. Saturday will be a very pleasant day with highs near 60° and partly cloudy skies. Sunday will be a bit breezy but mild as a warm front will lift through the area.

The warm front will be associated with this next passing weather system that will remain primarily North of us, keeping the highest coverage of rain Northward Sunday into Monday. Locally, we will see a few showers and even a rumble or two of thunder early Sunday, with only spotty showers then the rest of Monday.

This weather system will carve out a trough, or dip in the jet stream. This trough will also bring temperatures back down below average into Tuesday as a cooler air mass settles in overhead.

Next week will feature prominent Northwest flow aloft as the main troughing moves East. This Northwest flow a few miles up in the atmosphere will keep our surface temperatures near or just below average. Rain chances will remain slim, as the Northwesterly pattern does not typically favor lots of moisture surging this far North. After a drier pattern Tuesday evening into Wednesday, our next chances for rain could arrive Thursday-Friday.

Patches of dense fog likely, temperatures warm into the weekend

Moisture leftover from yesterday's rainfall has left the potential for fog prior to the morning drive. Some areas may reach locally dense levels, near or below a half mile of visibility. Use extra caution. Once the sun comes up, that should help evaporate away the fog heading into the mid-morning hours.

 

 

A secondary and much weaker system will keep the gloomy skies around but will also continue the chance for rain into Thursday afternoon. Again, this is a much weaker system, so the coverage of today's rain chance will be extremely isolated. Some locales will see rain while others will not. The combination of the gloomy skies along with a light northeasterly wind will keep highs near the 50° mark. 

High pressure then pushes in for Friday, resulting in sunnier conditions. However, winds will remain chilly out of the north, leaving temperatures only a few degrees higher than today. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the 52° to 55° range.

Partial sunshine remains on the table Saturday, though winds are to realign out of the southwest. This will make for a much healthier temperature climb, leaving afternoon highs in the low 60s Saturday. We can expect this temperature climb to continue into Sunday as our next storm system approaches. Afternoon highs will end up closer to the 70° mark.

Locally dense fog possible overnight and Thursday morning

 We had some areas of light or steady rain earlier this evening, only amounting to a tenth of an inch or so across the area. Additional isolated sprinkles and patches of drizzle may be possible through the night as cloud cover rolls back in after midnight.

Those patches of drizzle may be accompanied by areas of fog heading into Thursday morning. Some areas may reach locally dense levels, near or below a half mile of visibility. The main time frame for any fog would be between 4-8AM. Once the sun comes up, that should help to quickly evaporate away the fog heading into mid-morning.

Rain chances return Wednesday and Thursday

The first of two storm systems is set to arrive today, bringing with it the potential for rain showers and for some a mixture of rain and snow. 

Scattered light sprinkles and showers are possible during the morning hours, though it looks like most of us may not see rain until the afternoon. This is when forecast models show a steadier, more organized batch of showers rolling in. For the most part, local temperatures will be warm enough for precipitation to fall as rain. However, a few snowflakes may mix in, especially north of the Illinois/Wisconsin border. There may be some in southern and southeast Wisconsin, closer to the Milwaukee metro, that may see a dusting to 1" from this event.

We remain mostly cloudy overnight, with the chance for a sprinkle, flurry, or rain shower lingering into the hours leading up to the morning commute. 

Storm system #2 slides in Thursday. This one is a little less organized than the system sweeping through today, though it will have enough moisture for light sprinkles and showers to continue into Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than today, landing in the upper 40s.   

In the end, rainfall totals for most will end up in the .10" to .25" range. Once rain chances come to an end Thursday evening, conditions dry out for Friday and for the upcoming weekend. Afternoon highs will also be on the climb, landing in the 50s Friday, low 60s on Saturday, then upper 60s on Sunday.

 

Transition seasons bring a lot of ups and downs with them

 
Over the last month there have been quite a few ups and downs in the temperature department. A couple days in March reached 80 degrees, only to be followed by a cool down a couple days later. The start of April also featured a quick jump in temperatures when on the 1st the high was only 45 degrees, but then on the 2nd warmed to 71. Temperatures so far have been a bit of the cooler side.

But why do we tend to see these types of ups and downs during the Spring and Fall seasons? Well, it has to do with our jet stream and the battle between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south. The Spring and Fall months are known as 'transition' seasons. We are transitioning out of Winter into Summer, and then from Summer into Winter. It's usually during this time that we often experience an uptick in not only storms, but wind and a lot more variable weather.

The jet stream is our main driving force for our weather. Think of the jet stream as a highway, pushing storm systems across the globe. Within the jet stream there are concentrated areas of stronger winds, known as jet streaks. Often times these jet streaks can lead to areas of low pressure developing at the surface.

Jet stream winds are strongest during the winter season as there is a greater difference in temperatures from north to south, but the winds can also be strong during the transition seasons as the warm air tries to move in and cold air begins to retreat north. Low pressure systems that develop as a result of this difference will grow in strength the stronger the jet winds are aloft. This will lead to a greater pull of warm air north, ahead of the low, and a greater push of cold behind the low - leading to big temperature swings.

Eventually this imbalance will even out, causing our temperatures to remain a little more stable - and warmer - as we near the summer season.

Sunshine returns ahead of Wednesday's rain/snow mix

Clear skies moving in behind Monday's round of gusty snow showers have left us with a major chill for the start of our Tuesday. Locales are sitting 10°-20° cooler compared to 24 hours ago, in the low to mid 20s. Dress warmly before you head out.

 

 

No issues the rest of the day as high pressure slides in from the north, keeping skies sun-filled from start to finish. Winds remain out of the northwest, limiting our afternoon highs to the low 40s. Like yesterday, this runs well-below average as we're typically in the upper 50s at this point in April. Thankfully, winds will be less breezy, meaning today's sunshine will be much more suitable for outdoor activities. 

Cloud cover increases Tuesday night as our next storm system sets its eyes on the Stateline. Light rain or a mix of rain and snow will move around or a little after daybreak in a hit or miss fashion. 

More organized and somewhat heavier precipitation is scheduled to arrive further into the day, closer to the start of the evening commute. At this point, temperatures will be rolling back into the 30s, which will allow snow to mix in.

For the most part, forecast models do keep the highest chance for mixed precipitation or even snow along and north of the Illinois/Wisconsin border. 

No snow accumulations are expected. Rain showers will linger into Thursday as a much weaker storm system passes through. In the end, rainfall totals will wind up in the .10"-.25" range.

Clearing skies follow snow flurries Monday evening

 

A brisk north wind Monday not only kept temperatures nearly 10-15 degrees below the early April average of 56, but it also provided a few widely scattered snow flurries throughout the afternoon. While impacts from any precipitation will remain minimal, the scattered precipitation will continue through sunset. After that, high pressure moves in which will help clear our skies and allow overnight lows to fall into the low 20s.

High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday ahead of our next weather-maker which is forecast to move in late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Again, this could bring us the chance for some wintry precipitation to start and end Wednesday. In between comes the chance for scattered rain showers throughout the afternoon.

The high temperature Wednesday will depend on just how strong an area of low pressure will be, passing to the south during the afternoon. A more well-defined low-pressure system could help pull in a little cooler air aloft, holding on to the chance for a rain/snow mix during the afternoon. A less defined low-pressure system will allow temperatures to warm slightly, but an east wind will keep highs below average.

The chance for a rain/snow mix will continue into Wednesday evening with scattered rain showers lasting into Thursday. Highs Thursday will warm close to 50 degrees.

Tracking a few opportunities for snowflakes to fly this week

A strong cold front diving in will bring the Stateline its next chance to see some flakes fly. Yes, even though we're in April, we could still see precipitation fall in the form of snow as cold air lingers. 

The highest chance will be before midday, with some of the strongest snow showers lowering visibility for a short time. Once the front is to our south, dry but breezy conditions settle in for the afternoon. Winds being chilly out of the north and northwest, leaving afternoon highs near the 40° mark.

Skies will clear overnight as high pressure sinks down from the north. This, along with lighter winds, will make for a chilly start to our Tuesday, leaving overnight lows in the low to mid 20s. 

The chill will persist into Tuesday afternoon. Despite there being a little more sunshine, afternoon highs will be limited to the low 40s. 

 

Clouds cover will increase Tuesday night as our next weather maker approaches. By Wednesday morning, scattered rain showers will become likely, with a few flakes mixing in from time to time. Forecast models bring the associated low across the I-80 corridor during peak-heating hours, leaving surface winds out of the east. This, along with thick cloud cover staying put for most, if not all of the day, will leave afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s.

Scattered snow showers Monday morning, gradual warm up through the week

 The sunshine made a return Sunday with highs reaching back into the low 50s once again. Into the night, we will remain under a mostly clear sky until 3-4AM when a strong cold front approaches from the North. This will bring a narrow band of gusty snow showers with it, limiting visibility for a short time as the snow comes down.

Additional isolated snow showers or flurries may be possible into the mid-morning, but the afternoon will be dry and chilly. Any snow showers we see will have accumulations limited to grassy and elevated surfaces, with the highest potential of that East of I-39.

The strong cold front will drop temperatures down into the upper 30s and low 40s for Monday and Tuesday afternoons, while overnight lows Monday night could be in the low 20s. A gradual warming trend will be the story throughout the rest of the week, with highs reaching the 50s Thursday and Friday then 60s Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night into early Thursday will be our next window for any potential precipitation with a compact system passing through the region. This will bring scattered rain showers starting Wednesday morning, possibly lasting into Thursday. There is a slim chance for some snow to mix in depending on temperature trends as we get closer. Warmest model solutions favor a cold rain, while some others have a few flakes trying to mix in particularly Thursday morning.

Snow showers Monday morning, seasonable temperatures into the week

 

As we head into another Sunday and now into our first full week of April conditions continue to stay consistent as they have over the past few days. Today will once again be seasonable temperature wise as we'll stay in the low 50's with more sunshine than the days before! With the combination of high pressure and weak upper-level winds, today will be a pleasant day for early April!

Heading into tomorrow though a cold front will pass through late tonight and into tomorrow morning where temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20's or low 30's. Along this front, moisture will pool together creating the chance for some snow showers and mixed precipitation into the morning tomorrow. We'll gradually clear through the day but snowy/icy conditions in the morning may make things a little tricky during the early commute.

Snow showers will arrive in the late overnight hours and into the early morning hours of tomorrow as the cold front moves overhead. Precipitation is expected to start out as a mixed mode with some rain showers and snow showers possible as the front moves in helping cool down temperatures. After the front passes though, colder air will allow for water droplets to freeze easier which will allow mainly snow showers to develop into the afternoon.

Any snow shower that does come through isn't expected to accumulate too much, however slick spots may be possible on roadways along with reduced visibility at times.

The first of the showers will entire the state line around 4-5 a.m. as mainly scattered showers. During the morning just ahead of the front surface temperatures will be just above freezing so some of this may start out as ice or rain.

This front will be quickly moving south through the morning with continued showers along the front. These showers will be scattered through the morning though so some locations may see snow and others may not see any precipitation at all!

Behind the cold front, with a little bit of lift and moisture still leftover a few snow showers may develop into the late morning and early afternoon. These showers would mainly contain snow or possible graupel as temperatures will remain cooler behind the cold front. Once again accumulation is expected to be low, however areas that do have a shower that moves over tomorrow may see some snow on surfaces, but this will quickly melt into the afternoon!

The good news is that cooler temperatures aren't expected to stick around long! As we move into the later portions of the week high pressure will build to our southwest allowing warm temperatures to move eastward. As we head into the week above average temperatures may make a return!