More of Northern Illinois placed under the Dense Fog Advisory

The Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to now include more of northern Illinois. Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb Counties are now included, running until 9AM. 

Green and Rock Counties up in southern Wisconsin have also been added to the advisory. Again, travel with caution this morning! 

 

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McHenry County has been added to the advisory. The advisory will remain in place until 11AM! 
 

Dense Fog Advisory issued for some Northern Illinois counties

I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas! Cloud cover remained in place for much of the day, resulting in a slow temperature climb. We did however end up mild with highs in the low 40s.

 

Today, little warmer. We do start off the day with fog so if you are traveling back from holiday festivities this morning, use extra caution. The National Weather Service has expanded the Dense Fog Advisory east into northern Illinois to include Stephenson, Carroll, Jo-Daviess, and Whiteside Counties. 

Aside from very spotty drizzle, not issues the rest of the day as conditions remain dry but cloudy. Another round of patchy dense fog is possible overnight with temperatures falling into the low 30s.  Saturday aims to be similar to today. Fog giving way to a mostly cloudy afternoon. Similar temperatures as well as we look to peak in the upper 40s. 

As previously discussed, forecast models have come in much much later with the strong cold front that is scheduled for this weekend. Now, it seems the front will pass through around the late-afternoon and early-evening Sunday. With the later arrival, afternoon highs are trending upward, now expecting to peak in the upper 40s, possible low 50s. The chance for rain will also accompany the frontal passage.   

Post-frontal passage, cold air will quickly spill in from the northwest, dropping temperatures into the lower teens Monday morning. Afternoon highs are only expected to reach the low 20s Monday which comes in 10° below average. 20s remain in place for Tuesday and Wednesday before another round of cold air spills in into the new year.

Locally dense fog possible late Christmas night

 

Merry Christmas! While we didn't see much sunshine Christmas Day temperatures were still rather mild, warming into the upper 30s and low 40s. There was a bit of a breeze during the afternoon and that kept a little bit of a chill in the air, but temperatures did manage to warm nearly 10 degrees above average.

Cloud cover will be a plenty through the night as an area of low-pressure moves in from the west. It's not an overly strong low, but enough to bring a few light rain showers to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin around Midnight. Rainfall totals will add up to just a few hundredths of an inch, up to a couple tenths of an inch by Friday morning.

As the showers move out early Friday morning, areas of dense fog will be possible for parts of the Stateline. Dense fog has developed to the south in central Illinois and out west in Iowa. As winds turn light and dew point temperatures climb the air mass will have plenty of moisture. It may not be significantly widespread but if the fog does develop visibility could fall under a mile for a few locations early Friday. So, if you're up early know that there could be some fog that may impact the morning drive. Cloud cover will remain in an abundance Friday afternoon, but despite that temperatures are likely to warm into the mid and upper 40s. Winds will be a little breezy from time to time, gusting close to 15 mph into the afternoon. Dense fog will once again be possible late Friday night into Saturday morning.

  

Christmas forecast: Drizzle, fog, and low clouds limit temperature swings

 Light drizzle has begun to develop across parts of the Stateline this evening, with very light rain being reported in Savanna. Other airport observation sites are dry as of 6PM, but spotty sprinkles and light drizzle will remain possible through about midnight.

Areas of fog are developing South and West of the Stateline, with some dense fog in parts of Iowa. Rudolph needs be on his A-game tonight! Locally, patches or area of fog will be possible, especially after 9PM. Any widespread dense fog will likely be contained to South of I-80 or in Iowa.

Clouds may not budge much for Christmas Day, with much of the day remaining overcast. This will keep temperatures stuck in the low 40s for most through the afternoon. There may be a brief break in the clouds early in the afternoon, but it will not have much of an impact on temperatures. Better chances for bona fide rain showers will arrive after 8PM, with another renewed chance for fog as well.

We won't see much movement in temperatures up or down through the early part of the weekend, with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s for lows and mid-40s for highs. A stronger cold front will arrive Sunday afternoon, pushing temperatures down quickly by evening. We could see a chance for some rain and wintry mix Sunday afternoon, but the bigger impact will be the cold and windy conditions that will carry over into Monday.

Fog, light rain biggest concerns for holiday travelers

Everything seems to be on par with the forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas day. 

Lots of low-level atmospheric moisture will result in a mostly cloudy Christmas Eve with afternoon highs in the low 40s. Tagging along with today's expansive cloud cover will be the chance for spotty drizzle or an light shower, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts will end up under a tenth of an inch, just enough to use the windshield wipers and make the roads wet.

Fortunately, temperatures during this time will stay above freezing, so there is no ice threat. Now, if you are traveling home from any Christmas Eve festivities this evening or if you have to be anywhere Christmas morning, areas of fog may result in fluctuations in visibility. If the fog potential manages to materialize, travel with extra caution. 

   

Christmas Day will feature mostly cloudy skies and a breeze coming in from the east. This will leave highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. It won't be the warmest Christmas Day on record, and it won't be the coldest, but temperatures will be above the average high of 32 degrees. While most of Christmas Day will be dry, forecast models continue to show a batch of light rain developing late in the evening, most likely around/after midnight. For us, temperatures will end up warm enough for us to see only rain. 

Scattered light rain look to extend into Friday, coming to an end well before noon. Cloud cover hangs tight with temperatures making the climb into the mid to upper 40s. Similar temperature are expected for the start of the weekend as we wait the arrival of our next cold front. Forecast models were a little bit later with the cold front's arrival, bringing it in sometime late Sunday morning. This would allow temperatures to climb to seasonable levels Sunday afternoon before the plummet occurs into Monday. 

Holiday travel forecast: Fog, drizzle, and light rain biggest travel concerns locally

 

Planning a holiday trip can be stressful enough, but when you add in the impacts that could occur due to weather then the stress level can reach an all-time high. Thankfully, it looks like our travel impacts locally will be kept to a minimum through Christmas and the day afternoon, but we won't go completely without any bumps along the way.

If you're planning on hitting the road Wednesday, the first half of the day will bring with it plenty of

cloud cover. Temperatures early in the morning will be starting out in the upper 20s but will climb into the low 30s a little after sunrise as clouds increase from the west. Winds will remain somewhat light from the southeast with an occasional gust or two around 15 mph. A weak upper-level disturbance will move in from the west during the afternoon and evening and this will bring with it a surge of moisture northward. As this occurs, drizzle will begin to develop most likely after 2pm. Periods of drizzle and light rain showers will take us through

the evening before slowly coming to an end late Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts won't be much and under a tenth of an inch, just enough to have to use the windshield wipers from time to time and make the roads wet. Temperatures during this time will be above freezing, so there is no ice threat.

Once the light rain comes to an end there could be a period of fog and drizzle/mist that carries over into Christmas morning. So, if you're up early and planning on doing any traveling there could be some restrictions due to visibility.

Christmas Day will feature mostly cloudy skies and a breeze coming in from the east with temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s. It won't be the warmest Christmas Day on record, and it won't be the coldest, but our temperatures will be above the average high of 32 degrees. While most of Christmas Day will be dry there will be a period of rain that develops late in the evening, most likely around/after Midnight. For us, this precipitation will come down in the form of rain. But for those further north and east (east of Lake Michigan) impacts from more wintry weather, including freezing drizzle and rain, will occur. This will carry over into Friday morning and likely cause slow or delayed travel in central and northern Wisconsin, parts of Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana. Another period of wintry weather looks to occur during the weekend, specifically Saturday night into Sunday, as another system moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Locally, we could see a few light rain showers with the arrival of low-pressure Saturday evening.

Following that low Saturday evening a strong cold front will quickly move across the western Great Lakes causing temperatures to fall throughout the afternoon Sunday. Northwest winds will increase with gusts approaching 30 mph (if not higher). This will bring afternoon temperatures down into the 20s Sunday and wind chills below zero when you wake up Monday morning.

 

Temperatures Tuesday come close to 50 degrees, warmest we may be this week

 

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon responded nicely to the sunny skies warming area wide into the mid and upper 40s. Rockford's high reached 49 degrees which was our warmest we've been all month and 17 degrees above average! And while temperatures are expected to remain above average throughout the week, the days may not be quite as nice thanks to more cloud cover, drizzle, and periodic light rain showers.

As we hang on to a few clouds overhead Tuesday evening, temperatures are beginning to fall back into the upper 30s. Winds are light so there isn't much of a wind chill. Skies will remain partly cloudy as high pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes overnight. This will help bring temperatures down into the upper 20s for the start of Wednesday. There may also be a little fog to start the day.

Temperatures will warm back into the low 40s Wednesday afternoon, but clouds will be in abundance with a few spots of drizzle developing mid to late afternoon. Drizzle will then turn to a few light rain showers during the evening with only a few hundredths of an inch falling when all said and done. As the precipitation comes to an end Wednesday night, we could see fog develop through early Christmas morning. Highs Christmas afternoon will reach the low 40s under mostly cloudy skies.

Drizzle, light rain in the works for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

Unlike Monday, today features an opportunity for some sunshine as dry air works its way in behind a moisture-starved cold front. 

That will be the difference-maker into why we see highs climb into the low 40s this afternoon. We look to hold onto a partly cloudy sky overnight which will allow lows to fall into the upper 20s. 
 

Forecast models then show an area of high pressure sliding across the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will help turn winds to the southeast Wednesday afternoon, leaving highs right around the 40 degree mark. Skies remain mostly cloudy through mid-day Wednesday but an upper-level disturbance and increase in moisture will allow some patchy drizzle, and then light rain, to develop late in the afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals are not expected to be much and will only add up to a few hundredths of an inch.

Before we get into Christmas Day, here is a glance at the record books. It's safe to say these records will stand for another year as we're not going to see any big-time heat, cold, rain, or snow. Our warmest Christmas occurred back in 2019 when the mercury climbed to 59 degrees. I remember that day well because I was in shorts! The average high is 32 degrees. Highs this time around will fall in the middle of that range, landing in the low 40s.

Light showers are likely to develop as both the warm front and surface low pressure system move in northern Illinois Thursday night. Showers should develop after 8pm or 9pm and last into the early stages of Friday. All-in-all, rainfall amounts between will remain under a quarter of an inch. The rest of Friday should remain dry with highs peaking in the mid 40s under a mostly cloudy sky. 

Temperatures stay above average, but it won't be the warmest Christmas

 
Even though temperatures may end up above average through the week of Christmas it won't be the warmest week as clouds, drizzle, light rain, and fog will likely persist through Christmas Day.

Temperatures Monday afternoon warmed into the upper 30s with Rockford's high reaching 38 degrees. As of 10pm, temperatures haven't really fallen much and remain in the mid and upper 30s. This can be attributed to a light breeze from the south and a warmer air mass moving in from the west. There is some clearing taking place, moving from west to east across northern Illinois. Temperatures won't fall too much with lows ending up in the low to mid 30s. There may even be some patchy fog that develops through Tuesday morning. Under partly sunny skies afternoon temperatures will climb into the low 40s.

High pressure from Tuesday will slide across the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will turn winds to the southeast Wednesday afternoon keeping temperatures right around 40 degrees. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through mid-day Wednesday but an approaching upper-level disturbance and increase in moisture will allow some drizzle, and then light rain, to develop late in the afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals are not expected to be much and will only add up to a few hundredths of an inch.

Temperatures will remain mild through the night climbing only into the low 40s Christmas Day. The warm front that looked like it would cross the Stateline Thursday afternoon now appears to remain to our south, keeping northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin under an easterly wind. This will hold the cloud cover in place, along with any drizzle or fog that may occur from Wednesday night, as the warm front remains in downstate. Our warmest Christmas day occurred back in 2019 when the mercury climbed to 59 degrees. The average high temperature is 32. We won't be anywhere near the record, but our afternoon temperatures will be warmer than the average.

Light showers are likely to develop as both the warm front and surface low pressure system move in northern Illinois Thursday night. This will cause an area of showers to develop after 8pm or 9pm and lasting through Friday morning. All-in-all rainfall amounts between Wednesday and Thursday will remain under a quarter of an inch.  

Mild temperatures linger into Christmas Day

Hopefully you were able to enjoy Sunday's sunshine as sunshine will unfortunately be hard to come by during the week of Christmas. 

Skies remain mostly cloudy today. An organized southerly wind should allow afternoon highs to peak in the upper 30s. Winds will ease by this evening, staying light out of the south and southwest overnight. This will result in a small temperature drop, leaving lows in the low 30s. 
 

With a ridge of high pressure taking hold of the central United States, warmer air spills in northward for Tuesday. Afternoon highs should peak in the low 40s under a partly cloudy sky. 

 

 

  

Looking back, Rockford's top 8 warmest Christmases all fall within the 48° to 60° range. 3 of the top eight have occurred in the last 6 years. 

Now, from what we gathered this past weekend, it seemed like 50s were a given for Christmas Day. However, forecast models this morning have placed the warm front further south, leaving us with high temperatures in the upper 30s.    

Cloud cover, patchy drizzle, and fog potential are also on the table given the amount of low-level moisture forecast models were showing. That would also bring the likelihood for 50s down a notch. So, I wound up taking our high and bumping it down a few degrees, leaving us at 49 degrees. With it only being Monday, changes in the forecast can still occur so we'll have to see how things trend the next few days.
 

Low clouds, drizzle, and fog possible Christmas Eve

 Hopefully you were able to enjoy some of the sunshine from Sunday, since cloud cover will be the going trend for much of the next week! Starting overnight, clouds will build in from the West, holding temperatures steady or even pushing them back to the low 30s by morning.

Afternoon highs Monday will only reach back to the upper 30s for most, and some of the clouds may produce a spotty sprinkle or two during the afternoon. There is a very small chance for a brief spot of light wintry mix is possible but impacts to roadways will remain negligible. A few brief pockets of sunshine may be possible Tuesday, but it won't last long if we see any sun at all.

Low-level cloud cover will then filter in over Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. One of the ways meteorologists can pinpoint the level of clouds is through a forecast sounding, or a vertical profile of the atmosphere. Below is an example of what a sounding may look like around Christmas, highlighting the moisture in the lower levels and an "inversion" of warmer air just above the surface trapping the moisture in place. Drier air will be present in the mid-levels, but it will not be able to mix down to the surface with the inversion blocking it above.

Translated to the ground, that means we will see lots of clouds, with periods of drizzle or even fog possible beginning Christmas Eve and likely into Christmas Day as well. Any precipitation that falls out of the sky will be light in nature, but fog could limit visibility at times, especially early Christmas morning!

Another impact the clouds could have will be with holding temperatures down, particularly Christmas Eve. A warm front will be eventually pushing through the region late afternoon on Christmas, which will push temperatures into the 50s once it passes. But the early half of the day may start even 10-15° cooler than the evening will finish. Behind this passing low pressure system, the following weekend looks to be cooler with temperatures returning to the 30s by next Sunday.

Cloudy but mild leading up to Christmas

 Following Saturday's cold front, a clear sky overnight will lead to a chilly morning Sunday. Morning low temperatures will drop to the low teens, while wind chills could push as low as the single digits through much of the night. Afternoon sunshine will return temperatures to the upper 20s for highs amid a much lighter wind and the influence of high pressure.

Clouds return again Sunday night into Monday as our next weather system approaches from the West. This will bring a narrow window of light wintry mix, including the potential for a few flurries or some light freezing drizzle. Dry low levels will limit how much of this makes it to the surface but keep an eye out for slick spots Monday morning into midday!

Clouds may briefly thin out a bit for Monday evening, but abundant moisture will surge into the region by mid-week. This will bring thick cloud cover and even the potential for some patches of drizzle and fog, particularly Wednesday into Thursday. Santa may need Rudolph to be on his A-game for Christmas Eve! Whatever rain does come down will not amount to much, with only a couple tenths of an inch of rain possible at the most.

Despite the thick clouds, we will be in store for a stretch of mild weather, with afternoon highs pushing into the 40s for both Tuesday and Wednesday, then possibly into the 50s for Christmas! There will be a sharp cutoff the warmest air just South of us for Thursday, so the forecast temperature is subject to changes as we could end up on the colder side.

Warmer and drier pattern heading through the week of Christmas

 The past two weekends has been completely opposite in terms of forecasting for most Meteorologist across the Midwest. Last weekend temperatures reached record lows and highs as arctic air dominated much of the region. However, this weekend we look forward to temperatures above average as we head towards Christmas!

Through today temperatures will reach briefly above freezing through the early afternoon before a cold front pushes in this evening sending a wave of arctic air into the region briefly. Thankfully though, our upper-level pattern will switch by Monday allowing consistent southerly winds through the beginning of the week as temperatures warm through Tuesday to the 40's as we approach the mid-week!

Beyond that, temperatures only look to stay consistent and even rise as we head towards Christmas. As we've had a few times over the past few years, we'll be on the unfortunate side for those who wanted a White Christmas as temperatures may reach into the mid 50's! With the upper-level ridge in place as well we'll stay dry through the week thanks to most upper-level lift and waves staying to our north. 

Gradual warming overnight ahead of next cold front

 It was a bitterly cold start to the day in the Stateline with morning lows in the single digits area-wide following the pair of cold fronts Thursday. Wind chills in the morning were closer to -5 or -10 for much of the morning. Even though we had abundant sunshine, we only rebounded to the teens Friday afternoon.

Cloud cover along with an increasing South wind will be responsible for an overnight warm-up. Temperatures are set to rise through the night, eventually pushing the upper 20s by sunrise! Wind chills will remain in the teens for much of the night as the winds pick up, however.

Another cold front will arrive early in the day Saturday, bringing a slim chance for a couple spotty flurries or light wintry mix. The bulk of these will be focused North of Rockford in Southern Wisconsin, but a narrow window of a stray flurry may be possible between 9AM-12PM. Sunshine will then follow for the afternoon, but winds will remain breezy from the Northwest.

Afternoon highs will reach the upper 30s for most Saturday, but Saturday night will see temperatures dip back to the teens with another round of arctic high pressure. Sunday will be another chilly one with afternoon highs only back in the 20s. The warming trend then sets in for the rest of the week, pushing highs into the 40s by Tuesday! Christmas Day looks to be another warm one, with afternoon highs pushing into the 50s!