Weather Now

8:45am:  The light snow is now moving east of the Rockford Metro but here is a heavier band of snow now nearing Janesville and Monroe.  This will continue to slide southeast.


The cold front is just west of Freeport as of 8:30am and out ahead of it snow has begun to fall.  A little more widespread snow is now falling in southern Wisconsin and this will continue its southward movement as the front clears the Stateline later this morning.  Accumulations are expected to be minor, less than an inch, but there may be a few slick spots and visibility may be reduced for a time as the snow falls.  Heavier snow is expected further east as lake effect snow will begin later this afternoon and evening.

4th Mildest U.S. January

With the jet stream remaining locked across northern North America for most of the winter, the lower-48 experienced its 4th mildest January on record. For more on this mild start to 2012, here's an article from NOAA.

La Nina Pattern Weakening

NOAA's POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite) captures the most recent evolution of La Nina, which according to the Climate Prediction Center, is expected to weaken and return to ENSO neutral conditions in Spring.




From the Climate Prediction Center: 
La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012.



A mature La Niña continued during January 2012, as below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The weekly SST indices remained near -1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions (Fig. 2). However, the negative SST anomalies weakened in the far eastern Pacific, indicated by warming in the Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 regions. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened slightly (Fig. 3), but continued to reflect an extensive area of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central and west-central Pacific. Convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, the oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña.


A majority of models predict La Niña to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, and then to dissipate during the spring 2012 (Fig. 6). Also, there is evidence of a downwelling phase of an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave (red shading, Fig. 4), which may increase temperatures across the Pacific in the next couple of months. The combination of a weakening subsurface temperature anomaly, the historical seasonal evolution, and forecaster preference for the average dynamical model prediction favors a return to ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which are likely to continue into the summer. Therefore La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).


Because the strength of impacts in the United States is not necessarily related to the exact strength of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, we expect La Niña impacts to continue even as the episode weakens. Over the U.S. during February - April 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S., and below-average temperatures in the northwestern U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across most of the northern tier of states (except the north-central U.S.) and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 19 January 2012).


This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 March 2012. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Winter 2011-12... One for the Record Books?

It's possible that the winter of 2011-12 will rank among the mildest winters in Rockford history. So far, our average temperature (highs and lows together) since Meteorological Winter began on December 1st is 30.2 degrees. If winter ended right now, this would be good enough for our 3rd mildest winter on record!

Although we are expecting temperatures to be somewhat below average this weekend, the cool-down should be brief. The long-range prediction is for temperatures to remain above normal through the end of the month. Here's a link to more detailed information on the long-range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center.

Awesome satellite image

Check it out!  This is a visible satellite image (from the Miami NWS) of jet contrails over the Gulf of Mexico today.  It's not too often that you see this on satellite imagary!  Pretty cool!

Winter's not over yet

We may only be a little over a week into the month of February but already temperatures are running close to 10° above average.

Going into the weekend temperatures will fall into the 20s for the first time since January 21st, when the high reached 24°.  A strong jet stream will bring mild, pacific air into western Canada and Alaska the next couple of days providing a little relief from the brutal cold they've experienced.  As that happens, the atmosphere will try to 'balance itself' out causing the cold air that has been stuck in the arctic to shift south.  Temperatures near Hudson Bay have fallen to -20°F (or colder) this morning and it's that air mass that will make the trip south behind a cold front that will pass early Friday morning.  Breezy northerly winds Friday and Saturday will keep highs in the low to 20s; wind chills will likely be in the low teens during the afternoon.   

Amber Alert Issued

UPDATE:  AMBER ALERT CANCELED...CHILD LOCATED IN CHICAGO


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
ILLINOIS STATE POLICE SPRINGFIELD IL
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012

...CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY AT THE REQUEST OF ILLINOIS STATE POLICE...

AN ILLINOIS AMBER ALERT IS BEING INITIATED FOR THE RACINE, WISCONSIN POLICE DEPARTMENT TO ASSIST THEM IN THEIR INVESTIGATION OF AN ABDUCTION WHICH OCCURRED IN THAT STATE.  IRYANA K. VAUGHN, 2 YEARS OLD, UNKNOWN DESCRIPTION OR CLOTHING.  CHILD LAST SEEN AT 900 RACINE ST., UPPER FLAT, RACINE, WISCONSIN.  LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THIS CHILD MAY BE IN THE COMPANY OF IRYIN K. VAUGHN, THE CHILDS FATHER. IRYIN VAUGHN IS WANTED IN QUESTIONING IN REGARDS TO THE HOMICIDE OF THE CHILDS MOTHER IN THE CITY OF RACINE. THEY SHOULD BE TRAVELING IN A 1998 BLUE FORD EXPLORER WITH ILLINOIS PLATE L 3 2 0 8 9 3. IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION ON THE LOCATION OF IRYANA OR IRYIN VAUGHN PLEASE CONTACT THE RACINE POLICE DEPARTMENT AT 2 6 2...8 8 6...2 3 0 0.

AUTHORITY: LIEUTENANT MACEMON, RACINE POLICE DEPARTMENT, RACINE, WI, DANE COUNTY COMMUNICATION CENTER, MADISON, WI.