Remnants of T.D Cristobal brings Heavy Rain, Severe, & Strong Wind Potential To the Stateline

The long awaited arrival of what is now Tropical Depression Cristobal is here. After a beautiful stretch of dry weather, the arrival of this system is going to bring the potential for heavy rainfall, severe storms, and strong wind gusts.

So far, our day has been off to a dry start. The only thing that we've seen from Cristobal this morning has been a deck of high clouds that floated in from the south, turning our skies partly to mostly cloudy. Clouds are going to continue increase and rain is going to be quick to follow. Temperatures early on were in the upper 60s and low 70s, but the air had a comfortable feel to it as dew points sat in the 50s.

As of 9 a.m, the National Hurricane Center observed the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal tracking to the west of the St. Louis metro, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to Missouri. As this system continues it's journey northward, temperatures and dew points will quickly rise, making it feel more a little more tropical outside.

Models once again showed the remnants of Cristobal riding northeastward along the Mississippi River, bringing our first rain chances around or shortly after 1PM stretching until 8-9PM this evening. Typically with a system that originates in the tropics, rainfall and flash flooding is one of the biggest concerns. Although this system has been over land for the past 24 to 36 hours, it still has plenty of rich tropical moisture left in it's reserves.

This will lead to higher rainfall amounts along the track of the surface low, specifically eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin, than here in the Stateline. At the same time, the flash flood threat for the local area is fairly low, however the risk increases farther west. Overall, current thinking suggest that the Stateline could see 1/2 to 1.5" of rainfall, with higher amounts towards the Mississippi River. This is little compared to what areas in eastern and northeast Iowa could see, picking up a whopping 2" to 5". The only county that is current under a flash flood watch is Jo-Daviess county, and that will stretch into this evening.

As far as the threat for severe weather is concerned, Cristobal is going to add a little more spin to the atmosphere, which will help heighten the threat for brief tornadoes. Per the 8 a.m update, The Storm Prediction Center has kept a majority of our region under a Marginal Risk, (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. They did however expand the Slight risk (level 2 of 5), which now includes a portion of southeast Lee county, and the southern half of Dekalb county.  This system will also heighten the wind field in the low-levels of our atmosphere, allowing for damaging wind gusts to be another threat with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening. Between the hours of 1-9PM, be weather aware. Please be sure to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

In addition to the heavy rain & severe potential, winds are expected to ramp up during this time frame. Winds gusts could range between 30 to 40 mph at times, especially between 4 PM and midnight tonight. As we roll into Wednesday, Cristobal will finally move away from the Stateline. However, another system will slide in from the central plains, bringing a cold front into the region by late tomorrow afternoon. This will keep the breezy conditions and threat for scattered showers around for the middle of the work week. Thankfully, the forecast seems to quiet down as we head into the second half of the week, and stretch into the weekend!

Sun-filled Monday Ahead of Cristobal's Remnants

What could be better than a beautiful weekend? A beautiful start to work week of course. With only a few passing clouds overhead this morning, the Stateline woke up to plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures, with most locations starting out in the low to mid 60s.

As for the rest of our Monday, an area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will remain under control, keeping conditions sunny and dry. The sunny conditions will allow temperatures to quickly rise into 90s by late in the day. And although today is going to be hot and breezy, the humidity won't be an issue unlike the past few 90° days. Dew points through the day are going to generally be under 60°, which is considered fairly comfortable. Outdoor activities are high recommended. But if you do have any outdoor plans today, please be sure to lather up in sunscreen. The amount of sunshine we see today has led to the highest UV index of 2020 so far with a value of 10. That's out of a scale of 11, and you can be seeing sunburn developing in 15 minutes.

Enjoy the sunshine and dry weather while you can, because Tuesday and Wednesday will be dedicated to the remnants of what is currently Tropical Depression Cristobal. Overnight last night, Cristobal recorded a landfall in southeast Louisiana, then weakening into a tropical depression as it moved further inland. As it spins over the deep south, torrential rain continues to fall over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. The latest outlook by the National Hurricane Center tracks the remnants of this tropical cyclone through eastern Missouri, and then into the Stateline by Tuesday afternoon. This will be a three part storm as it will bring a threat for severe weather, heavy rainfall, and strong wind gusts.

Tomorrow morning is likely to remain dry, but conditions will quickly deteriorate by the mid-day hours. As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has left the entire Stateline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with a higher risk south of the Chicago metro. The greatest risk for tornadoes resides in the Slight Risk (yellow) along a lifting warm front. However, the Storm Prediction Center does keep a 2% risk for tornadoes across the Stateline as a brief tornado or two is possible. Damaging  wind gusts will also be a possibility with any severe thunderstorm that develops. With that being said, it would be important to practice your severe weather plan or to prepare your safe place just in case.


The potential for heavy rainfall also exists as tropical systems typically hold onto a vast amount of rich tropical moisture, even after being on land for a day or two. Current thinking suggests that the heaviest axis of rainfall will fall to the west and northwest of the Stateline. In fact, portions of eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin have been placed under a Flash Flood Watch already, as they will likely receive a quick 2" to 5" by Wednesday morning. In that same time frame, most locations around the Stateline could see 1" to 2" of rainfall.

And if you thought severe weather and heavy rainfall potential wasn't enough, this system is also going to bring gusty winds to the area. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday, and could gusts upwards of 40 mph at times. Although models bring an end to the rain and storms chances by the late morning hours on Wednesday, windy conditions seem to remain an issue into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts then could still gust upwards of 30 mph. What's left of our good friend Cristobal pulls away by the end of the work week, allowing tranquil and comfortable weather to return for the weekend. 

Comfortable, Sunny Weather To Stick Around for Sunday

If you loved the weather we saw throughout our Saturday, you're in for a treat as Sunday's forecast is going to be pretty much a "copy & paste" of today, with only a few differences.

Because of the expansive thunderstorm activity this evening over the Upper Midwest, Sunday is going to start off with a bit more cloud cover. However, thanks to the same area of high pressure that brought the sunshine today, morning clouds will give way to more sunshine by the afternoon. High temperatures will climb back into the low 80s, which is slightly above average for this time of year. Despite a wind shift to the southeast, humidity is going to remain under control as dew points remain in the 50s. A comfortable end to the weekend before the heat & humidity ramps up for the start of the work week. On Monday, temperatures will once again climb towards the 90° mark as strong ridge of high pressure slides to the east. The air will feel slightly more humid than over the weekend, so the heat index may be a couple degrees above the air temperature.

Tuesday is going to be the day to watch, as it will be our next chance to see heavy rain potential. And we can all thank what is now Tropical Storm Cristobal for that. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center places Cristobal right in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, with sustained winds of 50 mph. Cristobal is expected to make landfall along the Gulf coast by Monday morning, and then make a bee-line for the Midwest and the Stateline by Tuesday. Fortunately, we will only be dealing with the remnant low of this tropical cyclone, but along with it will be plenty of tropical moisture.

Models this evening continued to keep the brunt of the rainfall associated with Cristobal's remnants to the west and northwest of the region, bringing soaking rain to portions of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. As much as 3"- 4" of soaking rain could fall in those areas from Tuesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. For the Stateline, it all comes down to the track of the remnant low. If models pick up on a slightly eastward shift in the track, our region could pick up more rainfall than current models suggest. A shift to the west results in less rainfall. But overall, current thinking is that most locations around the Stateline could receive at least 1" of rainfall. Something to keep an eye on over the next 24-48 hours.

Temperatures Reach 90 Degrees for the Second Time within the First Week of June

Temperatures warmed back into the upper 80s across much of the Stateline, hitting the 90 degree mark in a few cities. This is the second time the high temperature has reached 90 degrees in Rockford this week (first week of June). The morning started off quite muggy with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s, but a northwest breeze during the afternoon brought those dew point temperatures down into the 50s by late afternoon. This helped to eliminate some of the humidity from earlier in the day.

Overnight lows will only dip into the mid and upper 60s as moisture slowly increases during the overnight. The increase in moisture is a result of thunderstorms that have developed in eastern Iowa, slowly moving east Thursday evening. Most of the storms have been weakening as they've approached the Mississippi River, but a few isolated storms will sneak through with an weak upper level disturbance overnight. We'll hang on to the chance for a few thunderstorms Friday ahead of a cold front that will bring temperatures down into the low 80s for Saturday and Sunday, and giving the Stateline a break from some for the humidity.

Storm Chances Remain Isolated, Warm & Sticky Pattern Continues

The official start of astronomical summer this year isn't until June 20th. With that being said, the summertime heat and humidity has been on full blast this entire week. This warm and muggy stretch of weather aims to continue through the end of the week before relief arrives just in time for the upcoming weekend.

The past three days have started off differently weather-wise. On Tuesday morning, skies were mostly clear to begin the day, and Wednesday morning was a bit active as a round of showers & thunderstorms tracking into the area. Although we were off to a fairly dry start this morning, many were greeted to the sight of patchy fog as they took their first step out the door. But with the help of some morning sunshine, the fog was quick to burn off, leaving the Stateline with a mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures behind Wednesday's cold front have dropped by a handful of degrees, with many areas in the middle 60s to start the day.

Despite the slightly cooler start, the summer-like warmth will continue into our afternoon, allowing highs to climb into the mid to upper 80s. With the humidity factored in, it could feel closer to 90° at times. So if you have outdoor plans set for today, be sure to put on that sunscreen, and to have an ample amount of water to remain hydrated. A majority of our Thursday will remain dry under a partly sunny skies. Hi-res models continued to show a slight chance for a pop-up shower/thunderstorm late this afternoon into the early evening. However, the better chance for any thunderstorm activity will be during the early morning on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.

As of this morning, that cold front is draped across far northwest Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. Ahead of this cold front, a complex of thunderstorms, or what we call an M.C.S, is likely to develop across the Upper Midwest later on today. As this line of thunderstorms approaches the Stateline, most hi-res models split this line into two separate complexes. One passing to our west, the other tracking into southern Wisconsin. This aims to keep the region's chances of seeing widespread activity on the lower side. However, a few storms could produce gusty winds.

Once the early-day chances come to a close, Friday's forecast will have a similar vibe to today's forecast. Skies will remain partly sunny through the afternoon and evening. As this cold front slowly slides southeastward through the region, it will have enough "oomf" needed to spark up another round of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon.The combination of this cold front, an an incoming high pressure system will bring relief from the summertime heat and humidity just in time for the weekend.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for Southern Wisconsin

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin until Midnight Tuesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms have quickly developed from Minnesota to Wisconsin, moving east into central Wisconsin Tuesday evening.

The greatest risk for severe weather will remain north of the state line, but as storms begin to move south after sunset a few stronger storms

could move into southern Wisconsin, posing a wind and hail risk into the overnight. Storms will continue to move south into Illinois through Wednesday morning, with an overall weakening trend, but some of the stronger storms may have gusty winds through sunrise. The risk for stronger storms will then shift south through Wednesday afternoon into central Illinois. 

Hot & Humid Tuesday, Strong Storms Possible Overnight

The Stateline was greeted to a beautiful sunrise to kick off our Tuesday as skies remained mostly clear overnight. Temperatures for those early morning commute started out seasonably mild, but comfortably in the upper 60s-low 70s. Just to put this into perspective, these temperatures are what we expect for average highs for the beginning and middle of May. This warm start is going to lead to a hot and humid day across the region, one in which could feature out first 90° day of 2020.

This actually aligns pretty well with climatology, as Rockford observes it's first 90°+ temperature on average on June 5th. The mostly clear start we saw this morning will lead to a few more clouds this afternoon. However, still remaining partly sunny for a good chunk of our daylight hours. Our southwesterly surface flow is expected to ramp up a bit more as we roll into the afternoon, gusting upwards of 20-25 mph at times. This will help pull northward a very warm and moist air mass, leading to highs hovering around the 90° mark for most locations.

When you take into account the humidity, it could actually feel more like the mid to upper 90s at times this afternoon and evening. If you are one who is going to be spending time outdoors, or is working outdoors today, take the necessary precautions to keep yourself safe from heat exhaustion and even heat stroke. It is important to limit strenuous outdoor activity as much as possible during hot days like today, while also staying hydrated. Bring plenty of water with you if you are someone who is going to be working outdoors today. And don't forget the most important heat safety rule of them all, NEVER leave your pets or children unattended in vehicles during said conditions. They are family too. 

As this heat and humidity builds throughout the afternoon, storms will begin to fire after 6PM this evening across the Upper Midwest. Storm mode may be discrete at first, but will then be quick to congeal into a line of thunderstorms or what we call an M.C.S (Mesoscale Convective System). This complex will track along the jet stream southeastward towards southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois during the overnight hours. Although the higher severe threat exists to our northwest and north, I would still have ways to receive watches & warnings during the overnight hours. Since the Stateline is located on the southern end of the severe threat, a few storms locally may pose a threat for damaging winds and heavy downpours. The storm and rain threat should diminish by the mid to late morning hours tomorrow, leaving partly sunny skies for the rest of our Wednesday!