Sun-filled Monday Ahead of Cristobal's Remnants

What could be better than a beautiful weekend? A beautiful start to work week of course. With only a few passing clouds overhead this morning, the Stateline woke up to plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures, with most locations starting out in the low to mid 60s.

As for the rest of our Monday, an area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will remain under control, keeping conditions sunny and dry. The sunny conditions will allow temperatures to quickly rise into 90s by late in the day. And although today is going to be hot and breezy, the humidity won't be an issue unlike the past few 90° days. Dew points through the day are going to generally be under 60°, which is considered fairly comfortable. Outdoor activities are high recommended. But if you do have any outdoor plans today, please be sure to lather up in sunscreen. The amount of sunshine we see today has led to the highest UV index of 2020 so far with a value of 10. That's out of a scale of 11, and you can be seeing sunburn developing in 15 minutes.

Enjoy the sunshine and dry weather while you can, because Tuesday and Wednesday will be dedicated to the remnants of what is currently Tropical Depression Cristobal. Overnight last night, Cristobal recorded a landfall in southeast Louisiana, then weakening into a tropical depression as it moved further inland. As it spins over the deep south, torrential rain continues to fall over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. The latest outlook by the National Hurricane Center tracks the remnants of this tropical cyclone through eastern Missouri, and then into the Stateline by Tuesday afternoon. This will be a three part storm as it will bring a threat for severe weather, heavy rainfall, and strong wind gusts.

Tomorrow morning is likely to remain dry, but conditions will quickly deteriorate by the mid-day hours. As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has left the entire Stateline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with a higher risk south of the Chicago metro. The greatest risk for tornadoes resides in the Slight Risk (yellow) along a lifting warm front. However, the Storm Prediction Center does keep a 2% risk for tornadoes across the Stateline as a brief tornado or two is possible. Damaging  wind gusts will also be a possibility with any severe thunderstorm that develops. With that being said, it would be important to practice your severe weather plan or to prepare your safe place just in case.


The potential for heavy rainfall also exists as tropical systems typically hold onto a vast amount of rich tropical moisture, even after being on land for a day or two. Current thinking suggests that the heaviest axis of rainfall will fall to the west and northwest of the Stateline. In fact, portions of eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin have been placed under a Flash Flood Watch already, as they will likely receive a quick 2" to 5" by Wednesday morning. In that same time frame, most locations around the Stateline could see 1" to 2" of rainfall.

And if you thought severe weather and heavy rainfall potential wasn't enough, this system is also going to bring gusty winds to the area. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday, and could gusts upwards of 40 mph at times. Although models bring an end to the rain and storms chances by the late morning hours on Wednesday, windy conditions seem to remain an issue into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts then could still gust upwards of 30 mph. What's left of our good friend Cristobal pulls away by the end of the work week, allowing tranquil and comfortable weather to return for the weekend.