Gusty winds expected Tuesday ahead of a few thunderstorms by afternoon

 
The weather for Labor Day couldn't have been any better with sun-filled skies, low humidity and temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s.  The one downfall, however, is we need the rain.  We haven't measured much rainfall within the first six days of the month and our yearly precipitation deficity is back up over 12 inches!  No rain is expected Monday night.

 A few thunderstorms are possible, however, Tuesday early afternoon as a cold front arrives from the north and northwest. Winds Monday night will shift around to the southwest, increasing by sunrise Tuesday.  Southwest winds will only strengthen during the morning and afternoon, at times gusting close to 35 mph.  The strong winds will help keep temperatures in the 60s Tuesday morning, quickly warming into the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon.  The cold front will pass through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois between 11am and 3pm, with shifting winds to the northwest through Tuesday night.  This will bring temperatures Tuesday night back down into the low 50s.  Northwest winds will remain strong Wednesday, gusting close to 30 mph during the afternoon.  Highs on Wednesday will reach the upper 70s.

Thunderstorms are possible for the Stateline Tuesday, but areas east towards Chicago, northwest Indiana and Michigan hold a higher probability for not only afternoon thunderstorms, but also the risk for severe weather.  It's entirely possible that parts of the Stateline Tuesday remain dry as thunderstorm initiation, or development, could occur right over the area with storms then gaining strength the further east and southeast they move.  This will be especially true if we have the cold front pass through early afternoon.  A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place from near the I-39 corridor, points east, while a slight risk for severe weather is in place towards Chicago, east-central Illinois, northwest Indiana and Michigan.

The wind field in the atmosphere remains pretty strong due to a very potent jet stream dipping into the Midwest Tuesday, however, the higher instability appears to be further east.  Because we have such strong winds in the atmosphere any thunderstorms that develop will hold the potential for gusty winds through mid to late afternoon.  The higher wind potential and isolated tornado threat will be east of the immediate region.  Tuesday night will be dry, but windy.  Dry conditions will continue through the end of the week.

Tranquil & Sunny Labor Day Ahead, Storm Potential Arrives Tuesday

Windy Sunday:

Following a cloudy 2-day stretch, Sunday featured a sun-filled but windy afternoon. Most of our local airports registered a wind gust between 20 to 30 mph, with highs topping out in the low 80s. You might as well copy and paste yesterday's glorious weather and insert it into the forecast for this year's edition of Labor Day, minus the afternoon breeze. 

Sun-Filled Labor Day:

Aside from a few clouds and maybe even a sprinkle or two, a weak cold front slide through the Stateline overnight. Skies behind the frontal passage remain partly cloudy with temperatures sitting comfortably in the low to mid 50s. If you're one of the few that are heading into work, or if you're traveling for the holiday, no issues weather-wise. 

As mentioned above, the difference maker today will be our surface winds, as they look to stay light out of the west-northwest at 5-10 mph. With plenty of sunshine expected throughout the day, highs this afternoon will end up comfortably warm in the low 80s. Conditions remain quiet into the overnight hours, with a few clouds rolling in before sunrise Tuesday morning. This is all ahead of a secondary cold front that will bring our next chance for rain and even thunderstorms shortly after the lunch hour.

Tuesday's Storm Potential:

Ahead of this frontal boundary, southwest winds will quickly increase into the afternoon, gusting up to 30-40 mph at times. This will help bring a little more moisture into the area and also help push our daily high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. So, definitely a little warmer than what we've been used to as of late. However, the timing of when the frontal boundary arrives and slides through will be the main factor into how much of the Stateline will see showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.  

Model guidance was mostly in agreement this morning, bringing the cold front through shortly after mid-day. Now, if the cold front ends up coming in a bit faster than what models are saying, this means storm chances will bypass much of the Stateline. If the cold front slows down a bit, this will slightly increase our chance to see showers and thunderstorms. 

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our far eastern areas, mainly those who live well east of I-39, under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Strong straight-line winds will be the biggest concern locally. However, it doesn't look like tomorrow's rain will fall in heavy doses due to the fact that the rich moisture lies well to our south. High pressure will move in Tuesday night leaving us with a mostly clear, and dry, skies through the end of the week.

Rain and thunder return following a dry Labor Day

 

Temperatures Sunday afternoon warmed into the low 80s following a couple of cool and cloudy days.  Light showers came down Friday, and Saturday was filled with plenty of cloud cover; both days temperatures only reached the low to mid 70s.

Labor Day will be very similar to what we had Sunday, partly cloudy skies and temperatures warming into the low 80s.  Winds won't be quite as strong as they were Sunday, but a good breeze from the west/northwest will kick in by the afternoon.  High pressure building overhead will help keep skies dry through Monday night.

Winds will then increase overnight Monday as the low level jet picks up from the southwest.  This will be ahead of an approaching cold front that'll move through during the early afternoon Tuesday.  Temperatures ahead of the front will warm into the mid 80s, with a slight increase in humidity.  You'll fee it, too, after the less humid and fairly comfortable days we've had from this past weekend.

Ahead of the front scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the early to mid afternoon, however, it depends on how quickly - and how much heating - takes place ahead of the front.  A faster arriving cold front means a higher shower/storm chance for areas south, bypassing much of the Stateline.  A little delay in the front will slightly increase the rain/storm chance for the afternoon.  Any rain we do get Tuesday isn't going to be much, unfortunately, as quite a bit of moisture is blocked to high pressure over the South. 

A couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible further northeast across the state of Michigan, as well as down towards Chicago.  This will be the focused area for better instability and lift, closer to the main surface low and support from the upper levels.  High pressure will once again move in Tuesday night leaving us with a mostly clear, and dry, skies through the end of the week.

Spotty Showers Friday, Dry for a Majority of Labor Day Weekend

Recapping The Week:

What a difference a week makes huh? For the longest time, it felt like we couldn't catch a break from the excessive heat and humidity. But man, this past week has been spectacular weather-wise. Highs for the most part have topped out in the low 80s, and there have been no issues with the humidity. I'll be honest, my air-conditioner has been on vacation since Monday morning. This comfortable weather pattern is set to continue into weeks end. But it comes at a cost, as we are scheduled to see our first rain chances since Tuesday afternoon. 

Few Friday Showers:

For those walking out early, conditions remain mainly dry under a mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures because of the additional cloud cover are starting off on a warmer note, in the upper 50s and low 60s. Rain chances hold off for much of Friday morning, thanks to the a large amount of dry air left behind by this week's high pressure system. As a low pressure system swings in from the southwest, the associated moisture will help erode this dry air, leading to rain chances s early as late morning. Coverage will remain light and scattered throughout the afternoon and evening. So while you won't need the rain gear for much of this morning, be sure to have it with you on the way out. It will likely come in hand if you plan on attending Rockford's City Market or any high school football games. 

Labor Day Forecast:

The potential for a few showers lingers into early Saturday morning, but conditions look to wind down rather quickly by mid-day. The rest of our Saturday remains dry, under mostly cloudy skies. With northwest winds taking over at the surface, highs will once again remain cooler-than-average in the mid to upper 70s.

With a little more sunshine in the forecast Sunday and Monday, temperatures will end up a few degrees warmer in the low 80s. A cold front sliding in from the northwest will bring our next best chance for rain during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. A few storms are a possibility, but we're still a long ways away from knowing if there will be any concern for severe weather. But it's something to keep in mind though as we head into next week.

Scattered showers expected Friday; Little relief in ongoing drought conditions

 

The last two days have been relatively comfortable with plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s.  Cloud cover, however, was quick to move in during the afternoon Thursday as steady rain continues to fall across parts of the Plains and Midwest.  Skies will remain rain-free Thursday night thanks to an abundance of dry air in place.  While moisture increases a little more Friday morning, we should remain dry through the morning hours.

 

The chance for rain will increase during the late morning and afternoon, continuing through Friday evening.  The rain, for the most part, should remain light with totals under a couple tenths of an inch by Saturday evening.  Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid and upper 70s both Friday and Saturday.

The incoming rain won't do too much to help alleviate the ongoing drought for northern Illinois

and southern Wisconsin.  The latest drought monitor continues to show moderate drought conditions across much of the region, expanding a little more down through the I-88 corridor, as well as into northwest Illinois.

The end of August also meant the end of Meteorological Summer, and overall it was a warm and dry season.  Only 7.14 inches of precipitation came down during the three month period of June,

July and August, which is 6.09 inches BELOW the seasonal normal.  Rain, and even a few thunderstorms, return back to the forecast next week but the overall pattern tends to favor dry conditions through possibly mid-September.

 

 

 

Pleasant & Dry Today, Spotty Showers Move in Friday Afternoon

Pleasant Start To September:

Talk about a gorgeous way to ring in the month of September and Meteorological Fall huh? The past few days have featured plenty of sunshine (for the most part), with daily high temperatures topping out in the 80s. In my overall opinion, my perfect forecast. For kids who are heading out for their first day of school, the weather remains dry and pleasant. However, rain chances will be quick to move back into the forecast ahead of Labor Day weekend.  

With high pressure still in control of our atmosphere, our Thursday kicks off on a sun-filled but chilly note. With how dry the atmosphere was overnight, most of our spots were able to fall into the upper 40s and low 50s. For kids heading to school, or for those going into work, a light jacket and a pair of sunglasses will be needed. 

The sunshine will continue to be in abundance into mid-day, with cloud cover slowly increasing throughout the afternoon. Fortunately, the afternoon and evening hours remain dry despite the increase in cloud cover. Winds today look to stay light but shift to a more east-southeast direction, allowing our daily highs to top out in the low 80s. Tonight, conditions remain dry under a mostly cloudy sky, with temperatures dropping back into the mid to upper 50s by early Friday morning.

Friday's Rain Chances:

With still plenty of dry air in our atmosphere, the end of the work week begins on a dry note. A few peeks of sunshine will be possible early on, with clouds thickening up towards mid-day. As the dry air erodes, rain chances will become more apparent late in the afternoon. Thankfully, we're not looking at a total washout. But if you plan on heading out to any of the high school football games, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have an umbrella with you. Rain chances remain spotty in nature overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Labor Day Weekend:

Because of the clouds and occasional showers, Friday and Saturday will end up being the coolest days of the upcoming holiday weekend. Our daily afternoon highs look to top out in the mid 70s on Friday, and then the upper 70s on Saturday. High pressure will quickly fill in behind Saturday's weak disturbance, allowing for a sun-filled to the Labor Day weekend. Highs to round the holiday weekend will end up slightly warmer in the low 80s!  Perfect BBQ weather if you ask me.

September, Meteorological Fall Kick Off on a Sun-Filled & Comfortable Note

September Outlook:

August is now in the books. With that being said, welcome everyone to month of September and also Meteorological Fall. September is one of few months during the year in which we experience noticeable changes, both with our average temperatures and the amount of sunshine we see. During the next 30 days, temperatures cool by roughly ten degrees, and we lose nearly an hour and a half of daylight. While the countdown to the end of meteorological summer may be over, we now are counting the days until we see our first sunset before 7PM. Thankfully, there will be plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures to go around to ring in the month of September.

Sun-Filled Wednesday:

Behind yesterday weak disturbance, an area of high pressure has been slowing sinking down into the western Great Lakes. This quickly dried out our atmosphere overnight, allowing temperatures to quickly fall into the upper 50s for most. A comfortable start for sure, but I don't think there is a need for that light jacket just yet. Save that for tomorrow morning. But what you will need with you is a pair of sunglasses. With high pressure comes plenty of sunshine, with a few clouds popping up by mid-day. As northeast winds continue to pull in cooler air into the Great Lakes, highs locally will be limited to the low 80s. Skies look remain dry and mostly clear overnight, allowing another round of radiational cooling to commence. 

Remaining Comfortable:

A light jacket may be needed Thursday morning, as most of our regional airports look to drop into the low 50s. With a ridge high pressure quickly moving overhead, the day looks to begin with plenty of sunshine, with clouds on the increase after the lunch hour. Even with the increase in cloud cover, Thursday remains dry. 

However, that can't be said for Friday. An area of low pressure looks to swing in from the west, bringing a healthy chance for showers throughout the day. Chances may linger into early Saturday, with conditions drying out by Saturday evening. The incoming rain will help cool down our temperatures even further, with highs only reaching the upper 70s. The last time that Rockford observed a high in the 70s was a month ago on August 2nd. So yes, it's been a while. But I'm not complaining.