Gusty winds expected Tuesday ahead of a few thunderstorms by afternoon

 
The weather for Labor Day couldn't have been any better with sun-filled skies, low humidity and temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s.  The one downfall, however, is we need the rain.  We haven't measured much rainfall within the first six days of the month and our yearly precipitation deficity is back up over 12 inches!  No rain is expected Monday night.

 A few thunderstorms are possible, however, Tuesday early afternoon as a cold front arrives from the north and northwest. Winds Monday night will shift around to the southwest, increasing by sunrise Tuesday.  Southwest winds will only strengthen during the morning and afternoon, at times gusting close to 35 mph.  The strong winds will help keep temperatures in the 60s Tuesday morning, quickly warming into the mid and upper 80s by the afternoon.  The cold front will pass through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois between 11am and 3pm, with shifting winds to the northwest through Tuesday night.  This will bring temperatures Tuesday night back down into the low 50s.  Northwest winds will remain strong Wednesday, gusting close to 30 mph during the afternoon.  Highs on Wednesday will reach the upper 70s.

Thunderstorms are possible for the Stateline Tuesday, but areas east towards Chicago, northwest Indiana and Michigan hold a higher probability for not only afternoon thunderstorms, but also the risk for severe weather.  It's entirely possible that parts of the Stateline Tuesday remain dry as thunderstorm initiation, or development, could occur right over the area with storms then gaining strength the further east and southeast they move.  This will be especially true if we have the cold front pass through early afternoon.  A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place from near the I-39 corridor, points east, while a slight risk for severe weather is in place towards Chicago, east-central Illinois, northwest Indiana and Michigan.

The wind field in the atmosphere remains pretty strong due to a very potent jet stream dipping into the Midwest Tuesday, however, the higher instability appears to be further east.  Because we have such strong winds in the atmosphere any thunderstorms that develop will hold the potential for gusty winds through mid to late afternoon.  The higher wind potential and isolated tornado threat will be east of the immediate region.  Tuesday night will be dry, but windy.  Dry conditions will continue through the end of the week.