Trading In Friday's Rain Chances for Weekend Sunshine

Mild October:

Even with all the rain opportunities mother nature has thrown at the Stateline, we've managed to stay very warm throughout the month of October. In fact, Rockford's average temperature during the first 14 days comes to 67.3°, which currently sits in 1st place for warmest starts to the month on record. Our daily high temperatures moving forward will be going on a another roller coaster ride. For those that are looking for that fall-like air, you'll be happy to know that the ride kicks off with a hint of fall. 

Few Friday Showers:

Thanks to a mostly clear sky and a chilly light wind out of the north, temperatures early Friday morning are registering in the upper 40s and low 50s. If you're heading off to school or work this morning, you'll likely want to put on something warm. This cooler start to the day will tell the tale for the rest of our Friday, especially with clouds filling back in, small shower chances, and winds remaining out of a cooler direction.

Overall, today's rain chances will be very scattered. With little to no energy in the atmosphere, I think a majority of what we'll see will be in the form of sprinkles or light showers. So, it's safe to say that the potential for severe weather is 100% out of the question. Guidance does show rain chances first arriving during the mid-late morning hours, lasting well into the afternoon. 

As far as accumulations are concerned, totals should remain under .10". If you and your family plan on attending any of the high school football games slated for this evening, the activity should be tapering off by the time of opening kickoff. As today's storm system pulls away from the area, cloud cover may linger into the early hours of tonight. However, cloud cover is expected to quickly decrease, paving the way for a sun-filled weekend.

Sun-Filled Weekend: 

Even though sunshine will dominate our skies on Saturday, a gusty wind out of the northwest will limit our high temperatures to the upper 50s. Winds throughout the afternoon will be capable of gusting up to 25-30 mph. This upcoming cool-down will be brief as we inch closer to the 70-degree mark by the time we're heading into Sunday afternoon. 

As we jump into the early parts of next week, southwest winds stick around, allowing temperatures to climb into the low 70s. Rain chances remain very low as a ridge of high pressure takes control of our atmosphere. It won't be until next Wednesday and Thursday that we'll see our next rain chances move into the forecast.

Decreasing Clouds Thursday, Shower Chances Return Friday

Long Rainy Stretch:

When it rains it pours. Not only is that the title to one of my favorite country songs by Luke Combs, but it's also a great way to describe Wednesday's rainfall. A glance at the almanac shows that Rockford was able to pick up a whopping 0.74" of rain, marking the 13th straight day in which the airport has observed a trace or more. Fortunately, we'll see a break from this long rainy pattern today, with rain chances making a quick return for the end of the work week.

Few Showers Early:

A sharp frontal boundary moving in before the sun peeks over the horizon has pivoted a round of sprinkles and showers to kick off our Thursday. The bigger question with this activity is does any of this make it to the surface. 

Dew points are registering in the mid to upper 40s early Thursday morning, which may be too dry for any water droplets to hit the surface. But I would still have that umbrella with you just to be on the safe side. Any activity that does manage to hit the surface should remain light in nature, and shouldn't bring any disruptions to your morning travels. Guidance does leave a chance into mid, possibly late-morning, with cloudy skies sticking around into the lunch hour.

Late-Day Sunshine:

Once the cold front is well to the southeast of the Stateline, our atmosphere will begin to dry out, allowing clouds to gradual clear throughout the afternoon. With a southwest wind lingering behind the frontal passage, highs will once again be limited to the upper 60s/low 70s. The overnight hours remain dry, but clouds are expected to be on the increase as we inch closer towards sunrise Friday morning. This will be in response to our next storm system which is set to bring one more rain chance before we dry out into the weekend.

Showers Return Friday:

Guidance has come into more agreement on the southerly extent of Friday's storm system's track, taking it through extreme southern Illinois. As this system rides today's cold front, moisture will get pulled northward, allowing for us to see a few showers.  It looks like chances begin shortly after sunrise, lasting through the mid-afternoon hours. Showers look to make a quick exit by the time we're heading into Friday night, marking the beginning of a long dry and sun-filled stretch of weather. Sunshine looks to dominate our skies both Saturday and Sunday, with highs topping out in the 60s. 

Rain Chances Return Today, Then Again Thursday Night into Friday

Gray October:

When it comes to seeing any rays of sunshine during the month of October, we really haven't seen much. In fact, of the first 12 days of the month, 11 of them have come in either with mostly cloudy or overcast skies. Despite much of the daylight hours on Tuesday featuring overcast skies, it was a beautiful sight to see some sunshine before the day came to a close. With that being said, cloud cover will once again be a big part of today's forecast, which will eventually lead to our next rain chance. 

Gloomy Wednesday:

A strong and very dynamic storm system over the Upper Great Plains will quickly bring the Stateline it's next shot to see some rainfall, with chances beginning after mid-morning. Guidance does show a wave of showers and embedded thunderstorms moving in closer to the noon hour, with the activity continuing into the afternoon. Following this initial round of showers and thunderstorms, things will quiet down a bit, but we'll remain under a blanket of clouds. As a warm front lifts into the Stateline, a cluster of sprinkles/light showers and possibly a few isolated non-severe storms will be possible this evening.

Low Severe Risk:

As far as the severe risk is concerned, it's very low for the Stateline. The Storm Prediction Center shifted the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) a bit further to the southwest, including portions of southeastern and eastern Iowa. Quickly behind the warm front, the associated cold front will slide through, allowing conditions to quiet down into Thursday. Cloudy skies early in the day will give way to a partly cloudy sky by the afternoon.

One More Rain Chance:

Quickly behind the warm front, the associated cold front will slide through, allowing conditions to quiet down into Thursday. Cloudy skies early Thursday will give way to a partly cloudy sky by the afternoon. However, it won't be too long before clouds fill back in, with another round of showers moving in by Thursday night. 

The amount of shower activity we see during this time frame will all depend on the track this storm system takes as it approaches the region. Models his morning were in disagreement with the surface low's track, with one coming in a bit more south than the other. But just know that showers will be possible overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with conditions drying out for the weekend.

Rain returns Wednesday afternoon; Low risk for strong thunderstorms

The clouds were slow to clear for some Tuesday, holding temperatures in the mid and upper 60s for much of the afternoon.  Where the sun was able to shine most of the day, highs reached the low 70s.  By Tuesday evening the southern edge of the cloud deck was right along the state line, with a few higher level clouds streaming in from the southwest. 

Under a partly cloudy sky Tuesday night temperatures will settle into the low 50s.  With little spread between the dew point and air temperature, areas of patchy fog will be possible by Wednesday morning.  Cloud cover will continue to increase during the morning as a strong Fall storm system east of the Rockies will lift northeast into the Plains and Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening.

This low will pull a cold front through the central Plains, reaching the Mississippi River by Wednesday evening.  A warm front will lie just to our southwest for much of the day Wednesday.  Strengthening winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere, known as the low level jet, will be increasing through the morning and afternoon, pulling in more moisture to the Stateline.  This will eventually lead to showers developing mid to late morning over west-central Illinois, lifting through southern Wisconsin by early afternoon.  Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to increase in coverage between 10am and 12pm.  No severe weather is expected. 

We may see a little break in some of the rain during the early afternoon before the warm front lifts through between 5pm and 8pm.  During that time we will briefly be in the 'warm sector' of the storm system.  Thunderstorms are forecast to form along the cold front west of the Mississippi River and quickly arc northeast ahead of the front.  If this occurs we could possibly see a few storms move in, especially over our southwest counties of Whiteside, Carroll, Lee and Ogle, some of which could be strong to severe.  Like Monday, risks would include strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. 

The entire area is under a marginal risk for severe weather, which while on the lower end of the scale, still needs to be watched closely as these Fall systems can definitely pack a punch.  Our window for strong/severe potential will be from roughly 5pm to 9pm/10pm.

Dry Tuesday, Showers/Thunderstorms Return Wednesday

Soggy October:

Mother nature has been very kind to us during the month of October, giving us rain chance after rain chance. So much so that the Rockford International Airport has observed at least a trace of rain each day of the month, with the highest daily total being 0.79" back on the 2nd. As yesterday's severe weather-maker continues to eject into the Great Lakes, dry conditions settle in for Tuesday. However, this soggy weather pattern will be quick to move back in as we enter the middle of the work week. 

Wednesday's System:

Cloud cover looks to dominate our skies during the early-morning hours, with some sunshine peeking through by the afternoon. With a decent westerly breeze developing, highs will once again be limited to the low 70s, which is still considered a few degrees above our normal highs for this time of year. Skies stay partly cloudy overnight, with moisture increasing after sunrise Wednesday. 

This is all in response to our next rain-maker, which looks to take a more westerly to northwesterly track than the system that came through Monday. As this low pressure system occludes or becomes mature over the Upper Midwest, showers will stream in ahead of lifting warm front beginning around the mid-day hours. Although instability and wind shear isn't as impressive as Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible.

Low Severe Risk:

Although the severe risk with these thunderstorms remains very low, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the Stateline in it's entirety under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. A few of the "stronger" thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds. Daily highs fallowing Wednesday's system will fall into the 60s beginning Friday, with 60s lasting through the weekend. This may be our first sign that Autumn is really trying to push Summer out of the Midwest. But only time will tell! 

Storms weaken moving into northern Illinois

UPDATE: The Tornado Watch has been canceled for all northern Illinois counties. 

A TORNADO WATCH remains in effect for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, McHenry and DeKalb counties until 9pm, however, the severe risk has greatly diminished.  The watch was canceled for Carroll and Whiteside counties.

A severe thunderstorm warning had been issued earlier for portions of Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties as the northern edge of a line of severe storms moved in from the south.  A brief tornado warning had been

issued for strong rotation near Mendota, IL, but that, too quickly weakened as the storm moved near Paw Paw and West Brooklyn.

As our atmosphere has become a little more stable Monday evening, heavy rain showers are going to be the main concern through Midnight.  Low pressure spinning up through northern Illinois will move overhead during the night before shifting east and northeast Tuesday.  This will take the rain threat with it by morning. 

Two Rounds of Thunderstorms Set to Arrive Today, Strong To Severe Storms Possible

Second Severe Season:

When we think about the fall season, we normally associate it with cooler temperatures, trick or treating, and fall colors. But the one component of fall that sometimes gets underestimated is the potential for severe weather. In fact, fall is considered the Midwest's "second" severe weather season, and we could see our first dose of that later today as a strong disturbance swings into Illinois. 

Key Factors:

When it comes to dissecting today's severe weather potential, today can go two ways. The first scenario involves having too much wind shear and not enough instability. If that would be the case, thunderstorms would have a very difficult time becoming mature, giving them less of a chance to acquire severe characteristics. However, if the sun were to make an appearance, this would help allow instability to climb, giving us a better shot at seeing severe weather.

Severe Potential:

As of this morning, hi-res models do keep cloud-filled skies into the afternoon hours, as well as a decent chance for the Stateline to see a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Severe potential with the first round remains low. However, a few of the stronger updrafts may be capable of producing small-sized hail. Storms may become a little more organized as the afternoon carries on, especially if we do see some sunshine peek through.  

The latest day 1 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has placed not only much of the Stateline, but much of the Stateline of Illinois under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. The primary concern with today's thunderstorm threat (if one were to materialize) will be gusty straight-line winds, with an isolated tornado or two possible. 

I think with the placement of the low to our southwest, areas across western and central Illinois will see a higher potential for tornadic activity. The severe risk will quickly decrease once the sun goes down and the atmosphere stabilizes. Regardless, it's always important to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings. Whether it's your weather radio, your cell phone, or by watching the First Warn Weather Team.