Snow, sleet, and freezing rain to bring slippery travel Wednesday

Even with a cool northerly breeze in place Monday, the Rockford Airport still managed to come in above early-February standards. 

In fact, Monday marked Rockford's 10th above average day in a row. This stretch will likely come to an end today as even cooler air settles in behind yesterday's frontal passage. 

 

Tuesday begins with a good deal of sun, though cloud cover will filter in after midday. With winds remaining breezy out of the north and northeast, afternoon highs will struggle greatly, reaching the mid 20s. Wind chills will remain in the teens. Clouds will continue to blanket our skies tonight into Wednesday morning, with temperatures only falling a few degrees from our afternoon highs.

While dry conditions aim to persist during the first half of our Wednesday, a system sliding in will bring the growing concerns of some impactful weather by Wednesday evening's commute. Out ahead of the main wave of precipitation, we'll see the chance for scattered light snow showers shortly after the midday hours. Not too long after, temperatures will be sitting very close to the 32-degree mark, allowing for a changeover to a scattered wintry mix which could consist of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

As a reminder, freezing rain consists on supercooled water droplet that have the ability to instantly freeze on contact with any surface. I will say, forecast models have backed off some of the higher ice accumulations that they were displaying earlier in the week. However, most of the area looks to pick up a tenth of an inch or less, which would still be enough for slippery conditions to develop. Use caution while out on the roads Wednesday evening, Wednesday night, and Thursday morning.

Conditions quiet down but stay breezy for Thursday, with afternoon highs peaking around the 40° mark. Not too long after will we have to monitor another opportunity for wintry weather, primarily late Friday night into Saturday afternoon.

Fog clearing late Monday afternoon

The thick fog that blanketed most of the Stateline Monday morning and afternoon is now beginning to clear as cooler and drier air settles in from the north. Unfortunately, this means our temperatures have also been falling with 5pm readings in the low to mid 30s. A breezy north wind has kept wind chills in the 20s throughout most of the afternoon. Further downstate temperatures warmed into the 60s, even 70s, a sign of a very powerful frontal boundary.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy through sunset with some clearing beginning to take place after Midnight. This will keep temperatures in the 30s and 20s throughout most of the night, perhaps briefly dipping into the upper teens just after sunrise.

Temperatures on Tuesday won't warm much, only reaching the mid 20s during the afternoon. Cloud cover moves back in which will leave skies mostly cloudy by evening. The increase in cloud cover will be ahead of our next storm system that is likely to bring a mix of wintry weather to the Stateline, including the potential for some freezing rain Wednesday night.  

Northern Illinois could see not one, but two chances for icy conditions

A light southeasterly wind in combination with an unseasonably warm and moist airmass has allowed for patchy fog to develop. 

Some spots like Galena, Freeport, and Monroe are seeing visibility values in the .5-1.0 mile range prior to the start of the morning commute. Be mindful of that if traveling this morning. 

Similar to Sunday afternoon, highs will be limited to the mid 40s due to cloud cover and the introduction of a northeasterly. At times, winds behind today's cold front could gust up to 25 mph this afternoon. South of the boundary however, warmer flow will allow temperatures to surge into the 50s, possibly close to 60°. Conditions remain quiet overnight, with this cooler northeasterly wind cooling temperatures into the low 20s.

Tuesday begins with some sunshine, though clouds will increase towards midday. That, along with this cooler northeast wind will limit afternoon highs to the 30° mark. Punching this into the calculator, that winds up 15° cooler than highs today. As we jump into the mid portions of the work week, the focus will turn to the potential for ice accumulations, primarily late Wednesday into early Thursday. 

  

From what I gathered this morning, a system will lift out of the southern plains and enter the southern half of Illinois Wednesday night. Temps will start in the upper 20s, then slowly climb into the low 30s shortly after midnight. This will put us in an environment where mixed precipitation, such as snow, sleet, and freezing rain, will be more possible. 

 

On the flip side, there are still some ingredients that need to come together for this exact scenario to play out. For the time being, keep an eye on the forecast but also start preparing for possible icy conditions. Following our mid-week system, Thursday and Friday will be relatively quiet ahead of a secondary storm system Friday night into Saturday. This one looks to take a similar track into Illinois, bringing a similar scenario with a wintry mix being the main type of precipitation. Again, monitor the forecast there is time for things to change.

Patchy fog tonight, freezing rain possible later this week

After a mild but cloudy Sunday afternoon, temperatures will be slow to fall overnight, only reaching the mid and upper 30s. Thicker cloud cover will bring the chance for a spit of drizzle along with some patches of fog overnight. Visibility could be limited below a mile at times through Monday morning.

Similar to the question marks on Sunday's high temperature with clouds vs sunshine, we will see another scenario where temperatures Monday could have quite a range of possibilities. There will be a stationary temperature boundary overhead Monday afternoon, with those South of said boundary warming into the 50s. Meanwhile, North of the boundary, highs may only reach the low 40s. With this boundary overhead, shifts of only a few dozen miles could mean a difference of 10° or more!

I am expecting Rockford to reach the mid-40s at least but would not be shocked to see upper 40s or even a near-50° reading not far away. Those near and South of I-88 have the best chance to reach at least 50°. Either way, temperatures will be dropping through the evening, down through the 30s and into the 20s by Tuesday morning.

The middle of the week could spell some trouble with wintry precipitation types. An expansive weather system could bring a mix of rain, sleet, and freezing rain our direction Wednesday into early Thursday. While there are still a lot of ingredients that need to come together for this exact scenario to play out as depicted below, the chances for a messy precipitation system to impact the Stateline Wednesday is increasing. Stay tuned to the forecast and start preparing for possible icy conditions mid-week!

Warmer Sunday and Monday, continued precipitation chances into the week

 With overnight precipitation moving out of the state line this morning, even warmer weather is expected to follow! Before that though, some lingering fog through the morning will stick around until around 9-10 a.m. this morning.

Slick conditions were present overnight last night as a mixed mode of precipitation came through which started as snow but quickly transitioned to freezing rain and rain. Some lingering moisture through the rest of the morning may help initiate a few lingering showers as well as produce patchy fog for some locations across the state line. Through the rest of the day though, low level clouds will stick around as we look to once again reach into the mid 40's.

 

Into tomorrow a bit of a trickier in terms of temperatures looks to take shape. Once again tomorrow looks to stay unseasonably warm but how warm will be the question. With a stationary boundary expected to stall right over the state line, the position of the boundary can influence temperatures at least a few degrees tomorrow.

Some locations may range in at least 5 degrees throughout the state line tomorrow all depending on where this sets up. For areas that would be north of the boundary tomorrow, low 40-degree temperatures would most likely be the outcome. While areas south of the boundary/front would be approaching the 50's!

Precipitation chances look to remain low through the next few days however with two separate troughs expected to move through the Midwest this week, higher precipitation chances look possible with those systems. As of now, it's still a bit far out to be forecasting precipitation type or totals, but with multiple models in agreement on some sort of precipitation, possibly mixed precipitation chances look possible into the later portions of this week. 

Quick coating of slushy snow tonight, fog possible into the morning

 Our next chance for a wintry mix will work through the Stateline late tonight in the form of some rain and snow. We will likely remain dry through 10/11PM for many, but after that is when the wave of snow showers arrives from the West. Initially with surface temperatures in the low 30s, we will likely see a period of steady, wet snow.

As temperatures slowly climb, we could see a switch over to rain, especially across the Southern portions of the viewing area. Those North, especially in Wisconsin, likely will remain all snow throughout this time. Though the snow will come down steady for a bit, it will not last long. The quick-moving system will bring the steadiest precipitation out of the area by 5AM. Slushy accumulations of up to 1" are possible within areas that remain all snow.

After the snow moves out, patches or areas of fog may develop with the increased moisture over the colder ground. This could last even into the mid-morning hours of Sunday. Visibility could be reduced under a half of a mile within the thickest fog. We may also see some patches of drizzle or light rain Sunday morning. Some of this could become freezing rain on elevated surfaces, so keep on the lookout for slick spots into Sunday morning, even aside from any accumulated snow.

By Sunday afternoon, we have two plausible scenarios in regard to our cloud cover and temperatures. If we remain under thick stratus (low-level) clouds and fog into the afternoon, temperatures will likely remain only in the low to mid-40s. 

On the other hand, if we clear out quickly and see afternoon sunshine, there is a possibility to see high temperatures reach near 50°! As of now, I am leaning toward the cloudier/cooler trend, but even a little bit of sunshine will do wonders to raise the temperature. As of now, our forecast high temperature for Rockford is 48°.

Mixed precipitation possible tonight with patchy fog to follow

 

As it's been said all winter long this cold season has definitely been one to remember and for many reasons. From setting record high temperatures to seasonably low precipitation this winter has definitely been an interesting one to say the least. Yesterday was once again an abnormal day as some portions of the state line nearly reached an inch of rain with surface temperatures once again in the 40's. For the minds of meteorologist, we kept asking ourselves, what if this was all snow? It certainly would've been our biggest total snowfall for the year.

Today will once again be another day above our average high as well as above freezing. This is definitely a mild start to February, and we can't complain too much, most of us will take this instead of subzero temperatures! Cloud cover today will keep us from approaching the 40's but as the night goes on precipitation chances increase.

Into the night we'll slightly cool our temperatures but only down near freezing and for some locations still above freezing. With a shortwave system moving through tonight precipitation chances will occur through much of the state line and depending on surface temperatures precipitation type may vary through the night.

The three most likely outcomes tonight will be rain, freezing rain, and snow for some locations. Area's south of highway 20 tonight will most likely see a higher chance for only rain as temperatures will be above freezing for more southern portions of the state line. Area's north of there may see a combination of all three as varying temperatures through the night will allow for different precipitation types. With temperatures freezing right at the surface that would promote a freezing rain threat while all cold air through the vertical atmosphere would support snow. Right now, snow chances remain highest for areas in southern Wisconsin.

No matter the type, travel tonight will most likely be affected especially in cases of freezing rain and snow, so if you are heading out in the middle of the night take precautions and drive slower.

Timing these chances out anytime between 12-3 a.m. tonight snow showers, freezing rain, and rain will be possible through the region with the highest chances around 2 a.m. Once again snow chances do remain higher for areas north of the state line, but a few snow showers can't be ruled out through the night for most locations. Don't expect much accumulation out of any precipitation though as this system will be fast moving and will be gone by 5 a.m. tomorrow.

Through the rest of the morning though with calm conditions behind the system along with residual moisture left behind by the system and any precipitation on the ground we can see patchy fog for many areas of the region. Even though it may not be raining or snowing tomorrow morning, driving precautions will still need to be taken as patchy fog can reduce visibility very quickly.