Cloud Cover Lingers into Thanksgiving, More Sunshine Ahead For Friday

First of all, HAPPY TURKEY DAY everyone! Following yesterday's round of steady rainfall, all remains quiet this morning under an overcast sky. With thick cloud cover holding strong, temperatures overnight were very slow to cool down. If you're up early this morning prepping the kitchen for the extensive cooking that lies ahead, temperatures to start are in the upper 30s and low 40s. Which if you compare to average is considered unseasonably mild since our average lows tend to be in the mid 20s. Although we're stuck in the clouds this morning, I'm thankful to say that the rest of our holiday remains dry. We'll even have an opportunity to see some sunshine once the afternoon rolls around.

Cloud cover is going to be stubborn today, clearing out slowly as we enter the afternoon hours. That's mainly due to the fact that we still have a little bit of moisture lingering around near the surface. But as a high pressure system to our south pulls in drier air, that's going to help break apart the leftover low-level moisture, bringing a few peeks of sunshine into the forecast. The additional sunshine, along with a decent southwesterly breeze, will allow high temperatures to climb into the upper 40s this afternoon. That may sound chilly, but it lands us roughly 5° above average. And it sure beats the 36° we saw on Thanksgiving last year. Winds, ahead of an approaching cold front, could gust up to 15-20 mph at times. But overall, it's going to be a nice, quiet, and mild turkey day across the Stateline. 

As for tonight, model guidance continues to show a cold front arriving from the northwest shortly after midnight. We shouldn't expect to see any rain chances pop up with this cold front. Mainly due to the fact that this front literally has no moisture to work with. Cloud cover is expected to increase early on in the night as the front approaches, with skies clearing out some once it's to our east-southeast. With that being said, any cloud cover that sticks around into Friday morning will slowly make an exit by the afternoon. Under plenty of sunshine, highs for weeks end will top out a few degrees cooler than today, in the mid 40s. 

Clouds stick around as rain moves out Wednesday evening - Cloudy skies for Thanksgiving

The last bit of rain has moved out of the Stateline Wednesday evening, leaving cloudy skies in its wake. While some drizzle, or even a few sprinkles, can't be ruled out through the remainder of the evening, our skies will stay cloudy through the night and into Thanksgiving Day morning. Rainfall totals over one inch were very common across much of the area with Rockford picking up 1.06 inches between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Low pressure passing to the south Wednesday will continue to pull further east into Indiana through the night. Winds will lighten up as the low pulls further away and this could allow fog to redevelop through the night, into Thanksgiving morning. High pressure moves in from the west Thursday, but with moisture still lingering near the surface the cloud cover may be slow to clear. This will likely limit just how far temperatures climb for the afternoon, keeping highs in the upper 40s. But even the forecast high of 48 degrees is still a handful of degrees above average.  

Drier air does settle in a little more Thursday night which will help turn our skies partly cloudy. A cold front comes through Friday morning, but will come through dry. Skies will remain partly cloudy during the afternoon with temperatures remaining in the mid 40s.

Foggy Starts Gives Way to Steady Rain Chances, Dry For Thanksgiving

Following a snowy morning across the Stateline, heavy rainfall and warmer temperatures helped melt away all of that fresh snow, making it seem like it never even happened. Cloud cover remained thick overnight, giving the vast amount of lingering moisture no path of escape. This has resulted in a layer of dense fog forming early Wednesday morning, some experiencing thicker fog than others. For that, the National Weather Service has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Jo-Daviess and Stephenson counties until 8AM, and also for Green and Rock counties up in Southern Wisconsin until 10AM. 

Those that are heading out onto the roadways this morning will need to drive with extra caution, especially if your travels take you northbound or westbound. While driving through the fog, it's going to be important to travel with your low beams on. And yes, even if you're traveling through the fog during daylight hours. Fog is made up of tiny water droplets. When bright lights hit those tiny water droplets, it reflects and spreads that light at a higher rate than the lights from your low-beams. So travel with your low beams, and make sure that you give yourself enough following distance from other cars just in case of an unexpected stop. This layer of fog should stick around into the late-morning hours.

Aside from taking it slow this morning, it would be a great idea to have the rain gear with you. Rain chances will quickly follow this morning's fog, as a mid-latitude cyclone, or a strong area of low-pressure, slides across the Midwestern states. As moisture swings around this low pressure system, this will lead to a round of light to moderate rain  during late morning hours. Hi-res models continue to show rain becoming more steady around mid-day, stretching into the afternoon. Once this low pressure system kicks off to the east of the Stateline, rain chances will begin to taper off throughout the evening commute. Cloud skies will linger into tonight, with another chance for fog to develop Thanksgiving morning. Most spots look to pick up an additional .25" to .50" of rainfall when this is all said and done. 

As for the upcoming holiday, the Stateline will wake up to a similar start on Thanksgiving. Model guidance continues to show plenty of moisture sticking around into Thursday morning, which will lead to thick cloud cover, and more dense fog. If you holiday plans take you out on the roadways early on Thanksgiving, you'll want to leave a bit early than scheduled, and take you time. However, Thanksgiving's gloomy start doesn't tell the tale for the rest of the holiday. As this area of low pressure pulls away, cloud cover will gradually clear somewhat, leading to a partly sunny afternoon. A southwest breeze will help pull in warmer temperatures, leading to highs topping out on either side of the 50-degree mark. Clouds will increase a little bit overnight Thursday into Friday morning, as a slow-moving cold front approaches.

Tuesday morning snow melts away as heavier rain moves in Tuesday evening

The snow showers Tuesday morning were quick to move in, but also quick to move out shortly after sunrise. Snow totals area wide ranged from between 1-3 inches, with the Rockford Airport officially receiving 1.7 inches.

Once the snow moved north the transition over to drizzle and fog started as temperatures warmed above freezing, and continue to warm Tuesday evening. The combination of the warming temperatures and increasing moisture helped to melt away any evidence that the snow came down Tuesday morning. Light to moderate rain will continue to fall across the Stateline through most of the evening, turning a little more

light between 10pm and Midnight. Winds will remain breezy from the southeast during the evening but will lighten up through the overnight as low pressure moves closer to the Midwest. This, along with the steadier rain coming to an end, will allow fog to redevelop and become dense in some locations by Wednesday morning. Visibility could drop to under one mile for the morning commute.

Low clouds, fog and drizzle will continue throughout much of the morning Wednesday with another round of rain moving in mid-day. Between Tuesday

evening and Wednesday evening an additional half an inch, to three quarters of an inch of rain could fall.

 

Accumulating Snow Likely Tuesday Morning, Dry & Mild for Thanksgiving

Thankfully, all remained quiet across the Stateline over the weekend. With a high pressure system in control, it made it a little difficult for any rain chances to creep northward from the south. Similar to Saturday and Sunday, sunshine is also featured in the forecast for the start of the work week. But that will give way to a storm system that arrives overnight, bringing the Stateline's first shot at accumulating snowfall by Tuesday morning.

As of this writing, our next disturbance is moving over the Central Plains, bringing a wintry mix to places like Topeka, KS, and Kansas City, Missouri. Ahead of this strong disturbance, high pressure will remain in control. Temperatures, under plenty of sunshine, will reach the low to mid 40s, which is actually where we should be at this point in the year. As our next system approaches from the west-southwest, clouds will be on the increase beginning Monday night, with snow not too far behind. 

The majority of our Monday night will be dry, with temperatures falling below freezing, then slowly rising into towards day-break Tuesday morning. Hi-res models show light snow falling by about 2-3AM, becoming heavier by the start of the morning commute. This could slow you down a bit as you're head out onto the roads, as there may be reduce visibility at times. Roads may be a little too warm for accumulations to occur, but just be on the lookout for a few slick spots while traveling to your destination. As temperatures rise throughout the morning, snow will begin to mix in with some sleet/rain, before changing over to all rain by Tuesday afternoon.

Overall, any accumulations will most likely be confined to grassy surfaces. Most spots look to pick up a slushy 1-3" of snow when it is all said and done, with higher totals expected for areas in southern and central Wisconsin. Any snow that does fall Tuesday morning will more than likely melt away by the evening as temperatures, and dew points, rise above freezing. Rainfall will also help get rid of this quick burst of snowfall, as rain looks to stick around into the middle of the work week. But we do have some good news when it comes to the upcoming holiday. Models track this system out of the region right before the Thanksgiving, allowing for dry conditions to settle back in. 

Once tomorrow's strong system pushes off to the towards the Ohio Valley, warm southwest winds will pull warmer air into the region just in time for Turkey Day. Higher up in the atmosphere, the jet stream will lift to our north as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. What this will do is keep away any disturbances that do manage to develop by tracking them to our north and west. Under a mix of clouds and sunshine, temperatures during the afternoon will climb into the low 50s, which is considered above average for this time of year.

Accumulating snow becoming a little more likely Tuesday morning

High pressure moves in Monday following a weak cold front Sunday evening. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy leading up to sunrise Monday, but plenty of sunshine is expected for Monday afternoon. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 40s. Clouds will, however, be on the increase ahead of a rather strong storm system that will move in from the west beginning Monday night, bringing the majority of the Stateline the first accumulating snow of the season.  

The majority of Monday night will be dry and cool. Temperatures will fall just below freezing, before rising heading into Tuesday morning. A quick surge of moisture thanks to strong southwest winds (the low level jet) will allow the atmosphere to become saturated quickly Tuesday morning. A period of snow will be likely, starting just before sunrise Tuesday, lasting through early afternoon for some. At times, the snow will be heavy and reduce visibility through the morning commute. This could slow you down a bit as you're out on the roads. As warm air moves in from the south mid to late morning sleet could mix in with some of the snow, until changing over to all rain by the afternoon. For folks closer to the state line, and in southern Wisconsin, the snow/sleet mixture could last a little longer into the early afternoon.

Any accumulations are most likely to remain on grassy surfaces, but roads could be sloppy Tuesday morning. As for snow accumulations, 1-2 inches are possible for north-central and northwest Illinois, as well as for south-central Wisconsin, with perhaps a few spots getting close to 3 inches. It's in those areas that the snow will be coming down for a longer period of time. Any snow that does fall will more than likely melt away by the evening as temperatures, and dew points, rise above freezing and rain falls through Wednesday.

Next Chance for Rain Could Bring Measurable Snowfall as Well

Our first measurable snowfall of the month could be here before Thanksgiving.

We are well more than halfway through a month that normally sees around 1.7 inches of snowfall and yet Rockford has failed to see any since November began. One reason being the near-record warmth the month has experienced so far. Through the 20^th, Rockford had an average high temperature for the month of 60.9° which puts this November on track to be the third warmest on record. In addition to snowfall, the rain has been lacking through the month as well. Through Saturday, Rockford is 1.11” of rainfall shy of the normal month-to-date total. However, some much needed rain will arrive before Thanksgiving and it brings with it a chance for some measurable snowfall.

Early Monday, a deepening upper level trough will be moving over the west coast from the Pacific Ocean which will result in the development of a low pressure system in the intermountain west. Through the day on Monday, this trough will deepen meaning the storm system will strengthen as it moves through the central Plains and approaches the Stateline. The system should arrive in the Midwest Monday evening while producing a large swath of rain. As temperatures cool through the night, the strengthening storm system will begin to drop some snowfall along its northern flank and begin to produce more widespread precipitation. As of Saturday, it appears the first of the storm’s precipitation to enter the Stateline will fall as snow and arrive in the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. Steady snowfall could continue as late as mid-morning before the snow quickly transitions into rainfall. From then on, most of Tuesday should see some pretty steady rainfall which could even last as late as Wednesday morning.

Computer models are suggesting that the Stateline should see at least an inch, if not a few inches of snowfall. However, they do not account for the surface temperature or the rain to immediately follow the snowfall. Plus, this looks to be a very heavy, wet snowfall meaning more compaction will likely take place than what models are accounting for. Therefore, it’s safe to say that no more than a little over an inch should accumulate at any given time on Tuesday and whatever snow does stick to the ground will be quickly washed away by the rainfall. Rainfall totals through Wednesday morning are forecast to be at least one inch and as much as two in most areas across the Stateline. However, conditions appear dry for Thanksgiving with seasonable temperatures and more sun than clouds.