Cold Front Today Brings Brief Break From Heat & Humidity

Another 90-Degree Day:

The workweek kicked off on a very summer-like note as the daily high temperature at the Rockford Airport just made it to the 90-degree mark. That now puts us at 31 90-degrees for the year. Following a cold front this afternoon, the heat and humidity look to ease up into our Wednesday. However, with a very summer-like pattern lasting into next week, the potential is there for 1-3 more 90-degree days.

Windy Tuesday:

Tuesday looks to begin with mixed sunshine, with a little more cloud cover moving in for the afternoon as the cold front approaches. Winds during this time will become gusty out of the southwest, gusting up to 25 to 30 mph into mid-day. Temperatures ahead of this frontal passage look to quickly climb into the mid to upper 80s, with our daily high being achieved sometime during the early afternoon hours. Once the cold front officially slides through, our surface winds will then take a turn to the northwest, remaining breezy into the evening commute. It's this northwesterly wind that will help pull in a much cooler, less muggy air mass for the middle of the work week.

Quick To Warm Back Up:

Although this upcoming cool-down will be a brief one, it'll give our air-conditioners roughly 24 to 48 hours to take a breather. Behind the frontal passage, high pressure will take over both at the surface and aloft in the atmosphere, bringing a sun-filled and less breezy Wednesday. Highs temperatures will fall on either side of the 80-degree mark, with overnight lows both tonight and Wednesday night dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Winds will then take a turn to the southwest Thursday, quickly bringing back the 80s. Although we'll be a bit warmer, the humidity won't be an issue. However, that won't be the case as we move forward into Friday and the upcoming weekend!

Limited rainfall chances throughout the week as temperatures continue to soar

As we near the official start of Fall (September 22nd) it will feel anything but fall-like as the likelihood of temperatures remaining above average could take us through the end of the month.  The high temperature officially in Rockford Monday afternoon reached 90 degrees as a cold front, turned warm front, was pulled back north.  Ongoing showers and thunderstorms, though, has kept the front from making much progress further north into Wisconsin Monday evening, leaving quite the temperature spread from north to south.

 The majority of the showers and thunderstorms will remain to the north overnight, but a little development along the southern edge of an ongoing cluster of showers moving into southern Minnesota may allow for a little activity to sneak right near, or just south, of the state line.  Temperatures will remain somewhat mild and muggy, only dropping into the mid and upper 60s. 

The chance for rainfall the next several days will remain limited as the main storm track across the country lies mostly north of the region.  While a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning and afternoon with the arrival of a cold front, high pressure and strong ridging by the end of the week and weekend will help keep many locations dry.

The rain is needed, especially as temperatures continue to warm, likely reaching close to 90 degrees once again this weekend.  Moderate drought conditions continue for much of northern Illinois as soil moisture is down to within 1-5 percent of its average.  A change in the pattern may occur beyond next week as a trough in the jet stream over the West begins to move a little further east.  Temperatures still look to remain above average but it is possible that we could see, at least, a better chance for some rain towards the end of the month. 

Summer-Like Pattern Holds Strong As We Jump into the Second Half of September

Warm Weekend:

Compared to the weekend prior, this past weekend ended up on a much warmer note with barely falling short of the 90-degree mark. This is considered unseasonably warm as we approach the middle of September, as our average highs are usually sitting in the upper 70s. Moving forward, it seems that it's "all systems go" as they say as summer looks to remain in control for the foreseeable future.

Tuesday's Storm Potential:

Aside from an isolated shower or thunderstorms during the early morning hours, today remains quiet under a mostly cloudy sky. The same cold front that came through early this morning is expected to lift back northward as a warm front, sliding to our north as we get into Tuesday afternoon. This will help bring us slightly better chances for thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which may be strong to severe. 

As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the southeast half of the Stateline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Included in that Marginal Risk is a threat for gusty winds and large hail. While high temps look to top out in the upper 80s, we briefly cool-down into Wednesday thanks to a quick-moving cold front. Now, I say "briefly" because signs of another warm-up are strong, with 90-degree highs not out of the question for the weekend.

Another Warm Weekend:

Models are showing another warm front quickly lifting through the Stateline Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing in a stronger round of southwest flow. Tag that along with a ridge of high pressure moving in aloft, and you have a prime combination for a summer-like pattern. Gusty winds on Saturday look to push our daily highs near the 90-degree mark, with more of the same expected for Sunday. As of this morning, we are now a week and a half away from the fall equinox. It seems like there's a good chance that summer will win the battle as we transition to the fall season and as we move into the end of September.

Summer heat returns for the weekend

 After a couple refreshing, Fall-like, afternoons temperatures are expected to warm in a big way for the weekend.  A strong ridge of high pressure out west will gradually shift east, pulling temperatures that have reached the 80s and 90s over the Midwest and Plains, closer to the Stateline Friday and Saturday.

 Before we get to the weekend, though, it'll be another cool and refreshing night with lows falling into the low 50s under a mostly clear sky.  Winds will remain light as high pressure moves across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  The light and variable wind will begin to shift more to the southeast, south and eventually southwest by Friday afternoon and evening.  This will bring temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s for Friday afternoon, with the official high temperature for

Friday forecast to rise around 83 degrees.

 Southwest winds will increase following the passage of a warm front Friday night, at times gusting close to 30 mph Saturday.  This will help bring temperatures into the upper 80s and low 90s, with Rockford's forecast high to rise around 92 degrees.  Dew point temperatures will also increase throughout the day, reaching the mid 60s by the afternoon.  This will push the heat index into the low to mid 90s.  If high temperatures reach the 90s Saturday it would be the 31st time this year that the high temperature has reached 90 degrees or higher.  While that is above the typical amount during any given year, which is around 15 times per year, it's no where near the record which was 62 days during 1921.

A cold front will be quick to follow Saturday night, remaining nearly stationary near the state line Sunday morning.  It's still a little unclear just how far the front may travel south Sunday which could have a big impact on high temperatures for the afternoon.  North of the front temperatures will likely remain the upper 70s, but south of the front temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and low 90s once again.  This could lead to a fairly significant temperature spread from southern

Wisconsin, into northern Illinois during the afternoon.  By Monday high pressure will work to push the front a little further south before lifting back north Tuesday.

10 out 10 for Thursday, Warming Up into the Weekend

More of the Same:

A gusty northwest wind made for a near-seasonable day yesterday. Wind gusts across the region peaked between 25-30 mph, which held our high temperatures in the upper 70s. 

In fact, this is the 4th time since August 1st that the daily high at the Rockford International Airport failed to reach the 80-degree mark. Now, if you weren't able to enjoy yesterday's cool weather, more of the same is on tap for Thursday before we see a more summer-like air-mass move in for the upcoming weekend. 

We saw an end to Wednesday's gusty wind thanks to an area of high pressure that approached from the west. With this high pressure still in the vicinity of the Stateline, winds will once again be out of the northwest, but won't nearly be as strong. In a similar fashion to Wednesday, sunshine will kick off the day with a few more clouds developing during the afternoon. 

Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 70s, right on par with what we should be seeing this time of year. Some of today's clouds may linger into the first half of tonight, but skies should remain clear enough for temperatures to drop back into the low 50s. Although Friday starts off on a fall-like note, summer quickly takes control by the afternoon. With us being in September, the battle between the fall and summer seasons will make for quite the roller-coaster ride. But it seems that summer looks to keep a grip on our temperatures well into the weekend.

Warming Back Up:

The same high pressure system mentioned above is expected to shift to the southeast, turning our surface winds to the south and southwest by Friday afternoon. Highs jump back into the low 80s, but thankfully there will be no issue with the humidity as it looks to remain low. 

Of the next 7 days, all signs point to Saturday as being the hottest. With a stronger southwest wind, highs for most look to top out in the upper 80s for most, with a spot or two barely hitting the 90-degree mark. So far in 2021, Rockford has observed 30 90-degrees day, which is exactly double the amount of 90-degree days we typically see on average for the year. But number 31 may occur on Saturday. Then a cold front is schedule to arrive sometime on Sunday, slightly bringing back highs into the mid to upper 80s as we roll into next week.

Windy Wednesday Ahead, Remaining Fall-Like into Thursday

Cooling Down:

The Stateline is waking up to a whole different air-mass this morning thanks to the cold front that plowed through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures early Wednesday morning are sitting in the low to mid 50s, a good 5° to 15° cooler compared to 24 hours ago. With that being said, you may want to grab a light jacket or sweatshirt before you step out the door this morning. Actually, I would keep that light jacket or sweatshirt somewhere where it will be easily accessible as the next few days kick off with a fall-like feel in the air.

Windy Wednesday:

Along with the warmer attire, be sure to grab a pair of sunglasses. Wednesday begins on a sun-filled note, with a few clouds popping up after mid-day. For the second straight day, gusty winds will a big part of the forecast, as northwest could gust up to 25-30 mph throughout the afternoon. 

A breeze will linger into the evening commute. But we should fully see these winds subside as we roll into the overnight hours. As cooler air continues to be pulled in, our afternoon highs take a big hit, dropping from the upper 80s Tuesday to the upper 70s this afternoon. More of the same can be expected for Thursday, minus the gusty winds. The weather should be perfect for outdoor daily activities, with cool nights to enjoy. With both nights falling close to the 50-degree mark.

Summer Isn't Over:

While this brief cool-down brings us a little taste of fall, just know that summer isn't over quite yet. As we approach the weekend, our daily highs will get a little boost thanks to a shift in our winds. Friday features highs in the low 80s, with temperatures inching closer to the 90-degree mark by Saturday afternoon. And you guessed it! Along with the uptick in high temperatures comes a slight uptick in humidity, with dew points climbing into the low to mid 60s. According to the latest long-range outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center, it seems that we hold onto this above average trend into the middle of September.

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Today, Cooling Down into Wednesday

Sun-Filled Labor Day:

This year's edition of Labor Day was a glorious one, as the weather remained sunny with afternoon highs landing in the low to mid 80s. Unfortunately, an approaching cold front will bring a slight disruption to our tranquil weather pattern, bringing the potential for thunderstorms by this afternoon. 

  

Be Weather Aware:

Sunshine kicks off our Tuesday, with temperatures quickly warming up as a cold front approaches the region from the southwest. Winds by the late-morning and early-afternoon will have the potential to gust up to 25 to 35 mph. 

This will help transport a little more moisture into the Stateline, allowing for a noticeable spike in humidity. With enough moisture and instability present in our atmosphere, a round of scattered thunderstorms looks to fire up early this afternoon. Some of which could be strong to severe.

Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center nudged the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) a little the west to include more of our areas along and east of I-39. Model guidance suggests that the time frame to be weather ready will be between 1PM-4PM, with storm motion being to the southeast. 

Any storm that becomes severe will be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds. By the evening commute, storms look to move out of the forecast area, leading to a decrease in cloud cover. Following today's cold frontal passage, winds will shift to the northwest, allowing a much cooler air-mass to filter in for the middle of the work week.

Cooling Down:

Wednesday looks to begin on a much more fall-like note with temperatures in the low 50s. This cooler start to the day is a sign for things to come as highs look to drop from the upper 80s today to the upper 70s by Wednesday afternoon. Although Wednesday remains dry under a mix of clouds and sun, gusty winds will remain a big part of the forecast. 

Winds remain out of the northwest, and could gust up to 25-30 mph at times Thursday afternoon. At the same time, these gusty winds will continue to pull in this cooler and drier air-mass, keeping temperatures seasonable into Thursday. But, I wouldn't let my guard down just yet as warmer times are ahead. As an area of high pressure slides to our southeast, our surface winds make a shift to the southwest by Friday afternoon. Highs will make a push for the mid 80s Friday, then potentially seeing our next 90-degree day on Saturday.