Sunshine Returns Briefly Ahead of Wednesday's Rain Chances

Cold Monday:

Just when you think we couldn't get any colder than this past weekend, Monday comes in at a chilly high of 34-degrees. This marks the coldest day at the Rockford International Airport since the beginning of meteorological spring which was back on March 1st. Yeah, let that sink in. While the chill does linger into the early stages of our Tuesday, brief improvements in the temperature department are set to arrive by the time we're heading into the afternoon.

Warmer, Snow-Less Tuesday:

The second half of November begins on a mostly cloudy but chilly note, as temperatures are sitting on either side of the 30-degree mark. As the day progresses, skies will quickly turn partly cloudy, with winds increasing out of the southeast. 

The combination of the mixed sunshine and gusty winds will finally push our daily highs out of the 30s and back into the 50s. Following the conclusion of the evening commute, skies are expected to cloud over in response to the approach of our next storm system. One that will bring us rain chances for the early stages of Wednesday, and one that will bring big changes in the temperature department for the second half of the work week.

Showers Return Wednesday

Before you head to bed this evening, make sure to place your rain gear in a spot where it will be easily accessible for Wednesday morning. Rain chances look to begin right around the midnight hour tonight, mainly in a widely scattered fashion. As more moisture streams into the Stateline, our rain chances will then become a bit more widespread ahead of the morning commute. While impacts to the morning commute aren't anticipated, I would still give yourself a few extra minutes for travel as roads will be a bit wet.

Once the cold front slides through, showers will slowly begin to taper off, leaving us with a mostly cloudy sky for the rest of our Wednesday. Although we do see conditions quickly dry out, the cold air that rushes in behind Wednesday's frontal passage will quickly drop temperatures into Thursday. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low 20s, with highs only peaking in the upper 30s Thursday afternoon. More of the same can be expected for Friday, with a few more clouds sliding in late in the day.

Recent Cold Stretch Lingers into Monday, Snow Chances Return

Cold November Weekend:

Even though we're still technically in the fall season, it isn't uncommon for old man winter to throw a few early-season curve balls our way. This weekend was a perfect example of that as we had multiple snow shower chances and of course the frigid cold. 

In fact, highs both Saturday and Sunday topped out at a chilly 39-degrees, making this past weekend the coldest weekend since late February (20th and 21st). So yeah, it's definitely been a while since the Stateline has encountered cold temperatures like this. How do we follow that you ask? With more cold and another shot at a few snow showers. 

Monday's Snow Potential:

Before we get into today's snow potential, make sure to put on a few extra layers before you head out the door this morning. Temperatures overnight have fallen into the upper 20s and low 30s, making for a cold start to the work week. Due to today's expansive cloud cover and snow chances, our Monday features a very slow warm up, with most landing in the upper 30s by this afternoon.

Now, back to our snow chances. Guidance shows yet another weak clipper system sliding in from the northwest, bringing with it another round of snow showers. For much of your Monday, expect mostly cloudy skies. An isolated snow flurry or shower cannot to be ruled out early on in the day, but much better chances for snow showers are set to arrive by the time were heading into the afternoon. Snow showers remain in a scattered fashion through the afternoon, before tapering off early this evening.

How Much Snow We Talking?

As far as accumulations are concerned, the most we can expect out of this particular system ranges from a dusting to maybe a half an inch. For those that get underneath the more moderate bands of snow, snowfall totals closer to an inch are not out of the question. imagine one or two spots getting closer to an inch. 

Once the disturbance finally pushes out of the region by this evening, tonight begins with mostly cloudy skies. Dry air filtering in overnight will turn skies partly cloudy for Tuesday. That, along with an increasing southwest breeze, will push temperatures into the upper 40s by the afternoon, with further warming expected into Tuesday night. This is all ahead of a cold front that will quick put an end to this early-week warm up, leaving us with 40s for the remainder of the work week.

Cold, Windy, & Snowy for Friday, Next Snow Chance Arrives Late this Weekend

Cold, Snowy Friday:

Thursday morning's frontal passage marked the beginning of a big change in our weather pattern, one that features colder temperatures and even the chance for us to see some snow. Before we get into today's snow potential, be sure to dress in extra layers if you are planning to leave early. After a morning that featured lows in the 30s, most will fail to eclipse the 40-degree mark this afternoon. Long story short, it's going to be cold out there.

As this strong area of low pressure sits comfortably to our north over Wisconsin, moisture wrapping around along with the cold air will contribute to our first snow chances as early as mid to late morning. Expect these showers to remain light in nature but there will be some heavier bursts at times, especially during the afternoon. 

Along with the snow chances, gusty winds will once again be a big part of our forecast. On Thursday, most of the area experienced wind gusts between 35-45 mph. Winds today will not be as strong, but gusts up to 30-35 mph are possible into the afternoon. The combination of the two could lead to a reduction in visibility for those that are traveling out on the roads. Travel-wise, visibility will be the only issue, as our road temperatures are still quite warm from the multi-day 60-degree weather we had early in the week. 

Any sticking snow will be limited to grassy surfaces and even that won’t stick around following the conclusion of today's chances. In terms of accumulations, most will end up with a dusting to as much as an inch. 

There is the potential for slightly higher accumulations for those that encounter a snow squall or two. While a few snow showers may linger into the evening hours, conditions look to wrap up by well before midnight, leaving us with a mostly cloudy skies for Friday night. Even after today's storm system pulling away, guidance does show plenty of cloud cover lingering into our Saturday.

Snow Returns Sunday:

Under mostly cloudy skies, highs Saturday afternoon look to remain glued near the 40-degree mark. As we've hinted at all week long, the snow that falls today won't be the only opportunity for us to see snow. A clipper system sliding in from the Upper Midwest will bring a round of snow showers to the region starting early Sunday morning, lasting into the early afternoon. There is still plenty of uncertainties with Sunday's system such as the intensity and snowfall accumulations. However, there is still time for this forecast to change, so be sure to stay up-to-date with the forecast over the next 24 hours.

Rainy, Windy Start to Thursday, Snow Potential Friday

Rainy, Windy AM Commute:

For those whose morning routine takes them out the door very early, grab the rain gear and give yourself a little extra time for travel. Thanks to a strong and maturing low-pressure system over the Midwestern states, this year's edition of Veterans Day kicks off with plenty of shower activity and strong winds. Forecast models continue to show widespread and at times heavier showers pushing through from 5AM to about the lunch hour. 

Gusty Stretch Continues:

While the potential for severe weather is highly not likely, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Overall, it looks like the forecast remains on point, with spots landing near 1/4". Once the rain tapers off, conditions remain fairly dry this afternoon. However, the gusty wind lingers. Throughout our Thursday, southeasterly winds could gust up to 30-35 mph at times, especially between 8AM to about mid to late afternoon. 

This will also be a a good reason to give yourself a few extra minutes for travel as these strong winds could make traveling difficult. As cold air rushes in behind this morning's cold front, temperatures will be falling throughout the day, landing in the mid to upper 40s this afternoon. Although winds somewhat lighten up overnight, they will continue to pull in the "coldest air" of the season thus far, allowing temperatures to further drop for Friday. 

Breezy/Snowy Friday:

The cold won't be the only headline as round out the work week. On the backside of this strong low-pressure system, temperatures will be cold enough for a few lingering snow flurries/showers to occur on Friday. Now, given how warm the Stateline has been the last week or so, any snow that does accumulate with melt away quickly. Left behind will be a strong wind, where gusts will still have the opportunity to approach 30 mph. As the low departs, an area of high pressure will slide in, allowing for a dry start to the weekend. Highs however will remain near the 40-degree mark into next week.

Quiet for Wednesday, Widespread Rain Moves in Thursday Morning

Much Cooler This morning: 

The difference in our regional temperatures over the last 24 hours provides a really great example on how cloud cover affects our temperatures. For instance, when you have a blanket of clouds in place at night, the heat that was absorbed by the Earth's surface during the day doesn't have that opportunity to be re-emitted back into space. Hence why we woke up on either side of the 50-degree mark Tuesday morning. But since skies Tuesday night were mostly clear, radiational cooling went into full-effect, allowing temps to bottom out into the low to mid 30s.

Mainly Dry, But Breezy Wednesday:

Trust me when I say that you'll definitely feel the difference once you step out the door. Needless to say, a few extra layers will be needed if you plan on heading out the door this morning  Despite the chill, we'll manage to see some sunshine before clouds eventually gather and thicken up by this afternoon. Highs cool off by a few degrees thanks to the increase in cloud cover, with most topping out in the upper 50s/low 60s.

Rainy Thursday Morning:

Although we remain dry for much of the daylight hours, we'll begin to see some green pop up on the radar by this evening. Any rain that falls later on today will be light and scattered in nature. After a short break from the rain Wednesday night, a surge of moisture out ahead of a cold front will bring shower chances back by Thursday morning. 

This time, rain will fall in a more widespread fashion and could be heavy at times before things wrap up by mid-day. Up to a 1/2" of rain is possible. As cooler air rushes in on the backside of the low, temperatures will fall from the 50s Thursday morning to the 40s by the afternoon. Guidance does show a few flurries/snow showers passing on through during the day on Friday.

Dry, Mild Conditions Linger, Rain/Snow Chances Rise Towards the Weekend

Dry, Mild Tuesday:

Thanks to a sneaky frontal boundary that came through Monday night, we're trading in yesterday's sun-filled morning for a cloudier one. Along with the clouds comes a noticeably warmer start, as most of our local airports are sitting a good 5°-15° warmer compared to 24 hours ago. While a light jacket will be needed, the rain gear can be left at home despite the fact that we may see a passing shower or two into mid-day. 

By this afternoon, we'll begin to see improvements as the cloud cover from this morning gives way to a round of mixed sunshine. That should be enough to push our high temperatures near the 60-degree mark, despite our winds being out of the north-northeast. Conditions remain relatively quiet Tuesday night, with overnight lows falling into the upper 30s. Although our "hump" day  begins with a chill and some sunshine, clouds will be rather quick to gather ahead of our next storm system. 

Late-Week Storm System:

Once skies turn overcast, forecast models continue to show a round of showers developing Wednesday afternoon, perhaps as early as 2-3PM. Initially, showers will be scattered in nature, becoming more widespread and heavier at times late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It goes without saying that we've been rather dry so far this November. But, we may be able to squeeze out 1/4" to as much as 3/4" before conditions dry out by mid-day Thursday. Not only does Thursday's storm system bring us our best chance for rain this week, but it's also going to help filter in the coolest air of the season to date.

Chilly By the Weekend:

The upcoming air-mass will be cold enough to bring the potential for a few snowflakes during the day on Friday, especially early on. Our daily high temperatures will take a huge plunge from the low 50s Thursday to the low 40s Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Oh! And remember those cold mornings we were dealing with to kick off the month of November? They make a grand return by the weekend as overnight lows fall into the upper 20s. Dry conditions move in for Saturday, with a clipper system bringing a chance for a few flurries/snow showers late-Saturday night and into early-Sunday morning.

Warm & Sunny Monday, Big Chances Arrive Late in the Week

Warmth Lingers:

We're coming off a beautiful November weekend that featured an abundance of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 60s. In fact, both Saturday and Sunday ended up well-above average, as average highs are sitting closer to the 50-degree mark. So this begs the question, how do you top that? With more of the same expected as we begin the work week!

If you plan on heading out early, there are two things you'll need to prepare yourself for the day. First off, you'll need a jacket or a sweatshirt as temperatures are registering in the low to mid 40s early on. And secondly, a pair of sunglasses. With high pressure in control of our atmosphere, plenty of sunshine is expected early on, with a few clouds moving in by this evening. Ahead of a weak frontal boundary, winds will remain out of the west-southwest, allowing temperatures to climb back into the mid to upper 60s. To make a long story short, get outside and enjoy the weather today. It'll be a forecast you don't want to miss.

Tuesday's Disturbance:

Clouds will continue to increase overnight as this frontal boundary slides through the Stateline. Despite the increase in cloud cover, rain chances remain slim to none as this frontal boundary won't have much moisture to work with. 

However, a weak disturbance quickly sliding in behind tonight's cold front will help pull in enough moisture for a spotty shower or two on Tuesday, especially before mid-day. The combination of the tomorrow's cloud cover and light northeast wind will cool temperatures down quite a bit, with most spots near the 60-degree mark. Although Tuesday's disturbance won't bring much when it comes to precipitation, that can't be said about the storm system that comes in late in the week. 

Late-Week Flurries?:

Guidance continues to hint at a stronger, more dynamic storm system sliding down from the Upper Great Plains Thursday morning. Along with the cold front, rain chances look to start late-morning, lasting into mid-afternoon. 

Once the "dry slot" of the low moves overhead, conditions will rapidly dry out but remain windy as we head into Thursday night and Friday morning. Strong winds will help filter in a much cooler air-mass, which may contribute to a mix of rain/flurries on Friday before the system fully moves out. We still are a few days out for the forecast to change, but there is a decent chance that the Stateline could see snowflakes fall by the end of the work week. Guidance also shows a second system moving in late Saturday into Sunday that could also bring the potential for a few snowflakes.