Breezy Tuesday Ahead, Next Impactful Winter Storm To Follow

Rainfall Recap:

Closer to the low in central Iowa, the potential for severe weather was present. Locally, it was more of a rain event as almost all of our airports registered totals in the .25" to .75" range. Temperature-wise, yesterday's southwesterly breeze was enough to push us into the upper 40s. 

Somewhat cooler times are ahead of us thanks a cold front that came through overnight. Now, we're not a significant drop that will place us more in line with mid-January standards. However, thanks to overcast skies and a bit of a westerly breeze, expect highs today to top out in the upper 30s and low 40s. Along with today's gloomy weather does come the chance for a few sprinkles or flurries. Though those chances appear to be slim. 

Next Storm System: 

The mid-portion of the work week is to start off on a dry but cloudy note. In fact, most of the daylight hours does feature dry conditions. Shortly after the evening commute however, that all changes. 

The parade of storm systems continues as another and yet stronger low pressure system takes aim on the region, bringing some sort of impact on our daily routine well into Thursday. 

The biggest uncertainty with this upcoming event remains to be the storms track and where that will place the great potential for snow. Locally, forecast models do show precipitation falling as snow for an hour or two before transitioning to a wintry mix overnight into Thursday. 

As of this morning, the EURO (European) model and the GFS (American) model were in somewhat agreement that the low will track through the northern half of the state. If that scenario were to play out, that would place the greatest potential for accumulating snow to our north and west. It's in these areas where the National Weather Service has implemented winter weather alerts. 

With that being said, the slightest shift south will heighten our chances for snow accumulations. Something that we'll need to monitor over the next 12-24 hours. On the backside, colder air filters in, leaving highs in the low 30s for both Friday and Saturday. Post our late week winter storm, the only change we'll be tracking for any precipitation will be a flurry or two this weekend.

Rainy Monday, Second System Wednesday into Thursday

First Half Recap:

For the most part, we haven't seen any signs of old man winter this January. In fact, the Rockford Airport has observed only three below-average days since the jump into 2023 occurred. 

Times that number by 4 and you have how many days have ended up above the average mark. As of this morning, the airport's average temperature comes to 32.1°, which ranks 4th for warmest start to the year on record. With that being said, these mild temperatures carry on into the second half of the month. However, expect the weather pattern to be a bit more active this week thanks to a parade of storm systems. 

Rainy Monday:

The first of two storm systems that we are keeping an eye on for this week will be a rainmaker. So far, the drizzle and light rain that is currently showing up on radar is having a tough time reaching the ground as dew point temperatures are sitting 5°-10° below the actual air temperatures. 

But once we get a bit more moisture to work it's way into the atmosphere, we can expect our rain chances to become a bit more steady after sunrise. It's safe to say that you will need to dust off the rain gear and have it with you on your way out. Expect rain to remain steady in nature into mid-day before becoming a lot more isolated for the afternoon hours. A second round of scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will develop at some point during the afternoon hours Monday. 

A good reminder... Severe weather can happen at any point in the year. Yes, even in January. With this particular event however, the local potential for severe weather is extremely low. 

However, there’s a small chance for a cluster of strong to possibly severe storms to develop, which could be strong enough to produce small-sized hail and strong winds. That's why it will be important to still have multiple way to get watches and warning just to be safe and prepared. 

With the associated warm front lifting into northern Illinois, temperatures late this afternoon and early this evening will be inching close to the 50-degree mark. When it is all said and done, most will be able to pick up .25" to .75" of rain. We remain warm overnight into Tuesday as temperatures look to only fall into the upper 30s. 

Cloud cover lingers for much of Tuesday, with temperatures heavily restricted to either side of 40°. Our attention will then turn to a secondary storm system that aims to bring us impacts Wednesday into Thursday, mainly in  the form of a mix of rain and snow. When it pertains to accumulating snow, this morning's guidance placed the best potential to our north and west. However, there is still time for the forecast to change. Something to keep an eye on this evening, Tuesday, and even into early Wednesday!

Milder temperatures Sunday night; Rain Monday

 

It was nice to see the sunshine Sunday afternoon amidst what has been a very cloudy stretch to kick off the new year. The combination of the sunshine and gusty south winds pushed temperatures into the low 40s area wide.

The cloud cover was quick to move back in Sunday evening, leaving our skies mostly cloudy for most of the night. The combination, however, of the cloudy skies and gusty south wind will keep temperatures nearly 20 degrees above the average low, which this time of year should be in the middle teens. Overnight lows will only fall to the middle 30s.

Low pressure moving in from the southwest late Sunday night will pull moisture into Illinois and Wisconsin. It's possible that some may see a little bit of mixed precipitation before daybreak Monday, but for most the precipitation will fall as a chilly rain. Drizzle and light rain showers are expected to develop after Midnight, turning to a steady rain between 4am and 7am Monday. The rain will remain steady throughout the morning before turning more scattered during the afternoon. Rainfall totals will range from a quarter of an inch, up to half an inch.

Low pressure will move into northeast Iowa by Monday evening, pulling a warm front just shy of the Stateline. Drier air wrapping in around the low could clear out some of the cloud cover during the afternoon, leading to a slight increase in instability. If this occurs, isolated thunderstorms would be possible during through sunset. The risk for severe storms is low, but it's not zero, especially with the proximity of the surface low and frontal boundary. Biggest threats would be gusty winds.

Colder air wrapping back in around the low will lead to a few flurries/drizzle Tuesday morning.  

Few Slick Spots Early, Warming Back Up this Weekend

Few Slick Spots:

A separate disturbance from the one that resulted in the significant severe outbreak across the deep south brought a couple of snow showers overnight. This, along with any residual moisture will result in a few slick spots during the AM commute. 

Aside from that, the cloud cover in place this morning is expected to slowly clear as the day carries on. Now although we do see a decent amount of late-day sunshine, today's rather chilly northerly breeze will severely restrict highs to the low 30s. Guidance continues to clear out our skies during the late-evening and early-overnight hours. This, along with a light to calm surface wind, will result in a much colder morning for Saturday, with most falling into the upper teens. 

Warming Back Up:

It's also during the overnight hours in which an area of high pressure dives to our south. This will help bring warmer flow to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, resulting in an upward trend in our temps over the upcoming weekend.

Expect a little bit of frost and fog to kick off the day Saturday. Otherwise, plenty of sun will give way to a partly cloudy sky by the afternoon. Highs, because of said wind shift, will land closer to the 40-degree mark. Temperatures jump a few more degrees for Sunday, peaking in the low to possibly mid 40s under a partly cloudy sky. Clouds will then increase Sunday as our next storm system glides across the central plains. With it comes our next chance for some rain. 

Active Week Ahead:

Before heading to bed Sunday evening, make sure to dust off the rain gear and place somewhere easily accessible. Rain begins in a scattered fashion late Sunday night, with shower chances remaining likely throughout much of Monday. Monday not only features our best precipitation chance in the near future, but it's also the day in which temperatures will be the warmest. 

Expect highs to peak in the mid to upper 40s, with lows falling into the upper 30s by Tuesday morning. On the backside of this early-week storm, winds turn to the northwest, cooling highs a bit for Tuesday. But the carousel of storm systems continue as another is slated to bring impacts late in the week. According to forecast models this morning, this event will start out as rain, with a changeover to a wintry mix by Thursday. With it being more than 5 days out, there is time for the forecast to change. But it's definitely something to monitor.

Active Start to 2023 Down South

Deep South Severe:

Yesterday's potent storm system didn't bring much to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. But if you traveled roughly 750 to 800 miles to the south, you had a much... much different story. 

A significant severe weather outbreak unfolded across the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South states as the associated cold front swept through. Along the front, a broken quasi-liner line of severe storms formed, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. 

Also on the table was the threat for renegade supercells, or severe storms that form out ahead of the main line. These, because of their isolated and more-discrete nature, have a higher potential to produce tornadoes. Some of these tornadoes could be long-lasting and strong (EF-2+).

One supercell in particular produced a long-track tornado that brought significant damage to Selma, Alabama, a town with a population of 17,600. All in all, there were 35 tornado reports, 161 wind reports, and 19 hail reports. The National Weather Service is going to be very busy the next few days conducting surveys, which will help determine just how strong these tornadoes were.

Cooler & Breezy Thursday, Few Flurries Late

Cooling Back Down:

What could have been better than Tuesday's sunshine and 40° temps? Highs in the 50s... And that's exactly what Rockford and even those who live in Rochelle experienced Wednesday. 

This of course comes well ahead of schedule as our average high temperatures don't typically hit the 50° mark until after the seasonal transition in March. In fact, this also comes well ahead of when we observed our first 50° day last year, which occurred on February 16th. But as I like to say, what goes up must come down. The well-above average trend will lose it's touch a bit over the next few days as cooler wind flow takes over. 

Cooler & Breezy:

Allow for extra travel time this morning as a round of patchy dense fog has developed. The cloud cover that we are also waking up to this morning is all thanks to a storm system that is passing well to the south of the region. 

The southerly extent of this storm system's track will help keep the more impactful precipitation south of south of I-80. However, a few flurries and light snow showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening. On the backside of the low, winds will be a bit breezy out of the northwest, resulting in a 10° to 15° cooler than Wednesday afternoon. Most this afternoon should be able to peak in the mid to upper 30s, which is still a good handful of degrees above average. 

Clouds remain in place overnight into Friday, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s. As high pressure approaches from the northwest, clouds will decrease throughout the day Friday, bringing some afternoon sunshine. Despite that, highs will end up cooler than today, landing below the freezing mark for most. 

But like I said yesterday, the upcoming downward trend in our temperatures is to be brief. The same high pressure system that clears out tomorrow morning's cloud cover will shift to our south, allowing winds to tilt more to the southwest both Saturday and Sunday. Highs Saturday afternoon will climb back in the upper 30s, with low 40s still in the works for the end of the weekend. 40s aim to stick around into the first half of next week.

Not As Much Sunshine Today, Mild Trend Continues

Comparing Rainfall:

Areas in California continue to get pounded by potent storm systems that are driven by what we call an "atmospheric river". 

For those that have never heard of this meteorological phrase, atmospheric rivers are long and narrow regions of rich-tropical moisture that are carried inland by strong winds. 

This results in torrential and long-lasting downpours, catastrophic flooding, strong winds, and significant snowfall. It's because of this that highly-populated cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, and Fresno are now sitting well above their average rainfall for the month of January. Rockford on the other hand hasn't seen much in the rainfall department, only picking up .46" since the new year commenced.

Not As Much Sun:

Our weather pattern believe it or not has been more sun-filled and unseasonably mild as of late. And this comes right around the time in which Rockford and the surrounding areas experience their coldest period of the year climatologically.

Despite the fact that our Wednesday features a mostly cloudy sky, highs will once again make the jump into the mid 40s. This would mark the third straight day in which our regional highs peaked 10° to 20° above first-half January standards. Cloud cover sticks around overnight as our next storm system aims to sweep across the Midwest, landing well south of the area by Thursday morning. 

Thursday's Storm:

Over the last 24 hours, forecast models have lessened our chances for a light mix of rain and snow. Still, a slim chance exists from sunrise until the early afternoon hours. 

Behind the departing storm system, cooler air filters in from the northern Great Plains, resulting in highs in the upper 30s Thursday. Temperatures get even cooler for Friday as most of our spots will struggle to make it above freezing (32°). Despite the cooler trend, skies dry out a bit, allowing for some late-week sunshine! 

No Signs of Winter:

As stated previously, this cool-down is brief. The high pressure system that brings us the late-week sunshine will dive to our south as we enter the first half of the weekend. 

Winds because of this shift in position will turn to the south-southwest, allowing highs to return to the upper 30s Saturday afternoon. Expect an even warmer afternoon for Sunday as highs aim to peak in the low 40s. As far as precipitation is concerned, mainly dry over the weekend. However, guidance continues to show an increase in our rain chances during the first half of next week.