Hazy conditions improve Monday, but wildfire smoke may last through the Summer

 

It has been a hazy and smoke-filled weekend as smoke from the Canadian wildfires continue to impact the Midwest and Great Lakes. Visibility has been reduced throughout the afternoon, but it has dropped a little further Sunday evening.

Hazy skies will continue through the night and into Monday morning, but conditions should begin to improve once the cold front moves through. There will likely continue to be some haze and smoke in the atmosphere through the week, but it'll remain more elevated and in the upper levels of the atmosphere, rather than right down at the surface. This means air quality should improve over the next couple of days.

Unfortunately, the smoke from the fires in Canada is something we will likely have to deal with throughout the rest of the summer, possibly lasting into Fall. Until the fires decrease in coverage in Canada, smoke will continue to impact the lower 48 as the jet stream shifts and moves. Impacts to air quality will also continue as long as smoke travels from the upper levels down to the surface.

Isolated shower/storm chance Sunday night

 

Skies have been clear, although hazy, Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front that'll sweep through the Stateline late Sunday night. The smoke and haze did limit temperatures, keeping most in the upper 70s and low 80s, with Rockford reaching 80 degrees.

The hazy skies will continue Sunday night as temperatures gradually dip into the upper 50s and low 60s. A cold front sitting across the Upper Midwest will continue to move south through the evening,

reaching the Stateline after 10pm. As it does, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible. But with the loss of daytime heating and low instability in the atmosphere the risk for any severe weather looks to remain low.

If any of the storms do grow enough in size and strength, reaching severe limits later tonight, the greatest threats would be strong wind gusts and small hail. This is why most of the Stateline is under a marginal risk for severe weather this evening. Most of the shower/storm activity should be south of the area Monday morning with clearing skies for the afternoon. It'll be a hazy start to the morning, but some improvements can be expected in both air quality and visibility for the afternoon.

Storm chances and smoke return this weekend

 After the evening thunderstorms, temperatures will not fall much further, only to the mid-60s as dew points will stick near the temperature. This will keep things feeling much more humid as well.

Tomorrow afternoon brings a good amount of sunshine and highs in the mid-80s, but also the chance for some afternoon showers and storms. A cold front will come to pass in the afternoon, leading to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. Luckily, the severe threat is much lower tomorrow.

Wildfire smoke from Canada may also begin to increase in the atmosphere tomorrow evening. The aforementioned cold front will help to swing some of that smoke toward the surface by the evening. This smoke may linger through the weekend and into early next week as well.

A few cold fronts will bring our temperatures down a bit into Sunday and Monday, with high pressure keeping us mainly clear Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures warm back closer to normal as storm chances return back to the area by the middle of the week.

Scattered thunderstorms Friday, chances linger into Saturday

Same Story, Different Day:

In a similar fashion to Thursday, today will be a day to keep an close eye on the radar. Not only this morning, but also as we approach the evening. Another impulse sliding in from the northwest will help drive the chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Adding more fuel to the storm potential will be the mixed sunshine and the rise in humidity levels.

Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center put almost the entire area under a level 1 Marginal Risk. Any thunderstorm that does become severe will be capable of producing strong winds and hail.With an organized southwest breeze in place, highs will peak in the mid to upper 80s. However, it will feel more like the low 90s thanks to the rise in humidity levels. Low pressure sliding into central Illinois will help carry rain chances into the early stages of Saturday, mainly for areas south of I-88.

Weekend Cold Fronts:

From there, conditions dry out a bit, with skies turning partly cloudy by lunchtime. Forecast models do show a few isolated showers and thunderstorms developing late in the afternoon. High temperatures will climb back into the mid 80s. 

A secondary cold front from the northwest will set it's eyes on the Stateline Sunday morning. Behind the frontal passage, a cooler and less humid air-mass settles in. This will bring highs down into the low 80s for Sunday afternoon, with highs struggling to make it out of the 70s Monday. Overnight lows also take a trip southward, landing in the upper 50s and low 60s. By the middle of next week, the ridge over the southwest U.S will build back up, bringing us another active stretch of weather. Chances arrive late Tuesday, and carry on into Wednesday and Thursday!

Tornadoes touch down in Chicago Wednesday, lower storm chances today

Storm Reports:

The atmosphere recovered quite rapidly following Wednesday morning's rainfall. This resulted in the potential for a secondary round of strong to severe storms, which didn't really get going until they were east of the viewing area. 

Twin tornadoes were reported near Elgin, another tornado touched down in Aurora, and there was even video of an ongoing tornado by the Chicago-O'Hare Airport. Once these tornadic storms moved eastward onto Lake Michigan, the severe threat across northern Illinois diminished quickly.

Lower Chance Today: 

Thursday kicks off with lingering cloud cover, with clouds decreasing somewhat into the afternoon. While our chances aren't as high today, an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Highs will end up a bit warmer than Wednesday, peaking back close to seasonable levels. Skies remain partly cloudy tonight, with temps falling into the low 60s, which is also considered seasonable.   

Warm Front Friday:

A warm front lifting in from the south may spark up a few isolated thunderstorms early in the day. Like Wednesday, this may or may not hinder the potential for a few afternoon thunderstorms. Should we have a afternoon round develop, heavy rainfall and possibly gusty winds will be the biggest concerns. 

High temperatures will end up slightly warmer thanks to an established wind out of the southwest, in the mid 80s. Along for the ride comes dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, which will make it feel quite humid. A cold front swinging in from the northwest Friday night will bring the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms, with chances carrying on into the early stage of Saturday. A secondary cold front takes aim at the region Saturday night, resulting in a drop in heat and humidity into Sunday.

Beneficial rainfall arrives, few strong to severe storms possible

Wednesday's Storms:

Tuesday's cold front, along with a lake-enhanced boundary, led to higher thunderstorm chances to the south and southeast of Rockford. Some of this activity tracked westward during the afternoon, allowing some of our southernmost areas to get in on some much-needed rainfall. 

As we've hinted at the past two days, Wednesday featured the highest chance for us to witness beneficial rainfall. But it does come at a cost as there could be a few strong to severe storms that come along for the ride. Just to be on the safe side, make sure to have multiple ways to get watches and warnings today. In their early-morning update, the Storm Prediction Center left areas south of Rockford, Freeport, and Galena under a level 2 slight risk. The rest of the area remains under a level 1 Marginal Risk.

The main focus for today's severe threat is currently in the process of sliding into northwest Iowa. As the morning progresses, forecast models bring this cluster of showers and storms into N. Illinois at or around mid-morning, with chances continuing into the early afternoon. Although it will be in a slightly weaker state, it will still be able to bring heavy rainfall/flash flooding, and strong winds to the region. Rainfall totals could reach over an inch in the locations that receive repeated showers and thunderstorms. 

By mid-afternoon, this storm complex should be pushing out of the Stateline. It's at this point in the day where we will have to see if the atmosphere has enough time to recover or destabilize. IF so, we could see a few isolated strong to severe storms form on the backside of the ejecting cluster. As we inch closer to the midnight hour tonight, storm chances will significantly diminish, leaving us under a mostly cloudy sky into Thursday morning. 

Warm Thursday:

Conditions will further dry out for Thursday, resulting in a mix of clouds and sun. The rain that falls today will help bring up humidity levels, making it feel much more humid. Along with the climb in humidity is a little more warmth, allowing highs to climb back towards seasonable levels. Another round of scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon thanks to a lifting warm front. From there, chances will drop into the upcoming weekend.

Few t-storms this afternoon, heavier rain a possibility into early Wednesday

Cold Front Tuesday:

The work week kicked off with a little more heat and humidity thanks to an organized southwest breeze. Even so, humidity levels Monday weren't too terrible, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s. South to southwest flow remained in place overnight, resulting in a noticeably warmer start. Tagging along with this morning's warmth will be the potential for an isolated shower or non-severe thunderstorm.

From there, expect much of our Tuesday to remain dry under a mix of clouds and sun. Forecast models do show our next cold front sliding in from the north sometime during the afternoon. 

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially wherever the front ends up. Right now, the greatest risk appears to be along and south of I-88. The Storm Prediction Center has remained consistent with today's severe threat, leaving much of the region under a level 1 Marginal risk. Should any storm become severe, strong winds, hail, and heavy rainfall would be the primary concerns.

Wednesday's Threat:

Storm potential will take a short break after sunset. However, this is when we'll turn our attention to the west where additional thunderstorms are likely to develop. These storms will become the primary focus for  thunderstorms potential Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 

However, the highest impacts will all be dependent on how far south today's cold front ends up. If the front pushes further south of the Stateline, that would mean the greatest storm threat Wednesday morning would also end up to the south. However, if the cold front ends up further north, portions of the region could have a line of strong to severe storms move through Wednesday morning between 7AM-12PM. 

Again, the biggest concern would be strong winds, followed by heavy rainfall. In a similar fashion to today, the Storm Prediction Center has the entire area under a level 1 Marginal Risk, with a level 2 Slight Risk in place directly to our south. 

In their discussion, they do mention the biggest uncertainty being the position of the front. Forecast models keep this frontal boundary to our south until Friday when it lifts northward as a warm front. Temperatures during this time are slated to peak in the mid to upper 80s. Humidity also climbing, reaching humid levels.