Beneficial rainfall arrives, few strong to severe storms possible

Wednesday's Storms:

Tuesday's cold front, along with a lake-enhanced boundary, led to higher thunderstorm chances to the south and southeast of Rockford. Some of this activity tracked westward during the afternoon, allowing some of our southernmost areas to get in on some much-needed rainfall. 

As we've hinted at the past two days, Wednesday featured the highest chance for us to witness beneficial rainfall. But it does come at a cost as there could be a few strong to severe storms that come along for the ride. Just to be on the safe side, make sure to have multiple ways to get watches and warnings today. In their early-morning update, the Storm Prediction Center left areas south of Rockford, Freeport, and Galena under a level 2 slight risk. The rest of the area remains under a level 1 Marginal Risk.

The main focus for today's severe threat is currently in the process of sliding into northwest Iowa. As the morning progresses, forecast models bring this cluster of showers and storms into N. Illinois at or around mid-morning, with chances continuing into the early afternoon. Although it will be in a slightly weaker state, it will still be able to bring heavy rainfall/flash flooding, and strong winds to the region. Rainfall totals could reach over an inch in the locations that receive repeated showers and thunderstorms. 

By mid-afternoon, this storm complex should be pushing out of the Stateline. It's at this point in the day where we will have to see if the atmosphere has enough time to recover or destabilize. IF so, we could see a few isolated strong to severe storms form on the backside of the ejecting cluster. As we inch closer to the midnight hour tonight, storm chances will significantly diminish, leaving us under a mostly cloudy sky into Thursday morning. 

Warm Thursday:

Conditions will further dry out for Thursday, resulting in a mix of clouds and sun. The rain that falls today will help bring up humidity levels, making it feel much more humid. Along with the climb in humidity is a little more warmth, allowing highs to climb back towards seasonable levels. Another round of scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon thanks to a lifting warm front. From there, chances will drop into the upcoming weekend.