Windy week ahead with precipitation chances arriving this weekend

 Last week was quite chilly for a few days but we continue to lack in terms of winter precipitation for this year. Wednesday was our last day of measurable snowfall where we were able to get over an inch of snowfall however with yesterday's temperatures above freezing and, in the days, to come, we may not see any snow on the ground for at least another week.

Before getting into chances later this week, looking at today, we'll be back down below freezing although not that cold as for January 29 degrees are often pretty comfortable. At the surface though we'll experience some breezy conditions with wind gusts up to 25 mph possible through the afternoon today, but with plenty of sunshine!

Into the next few days though, the pressure gradient at the surface along with strong low level atmospheric winds will combine to make for a couple windy days.

Into Monday and Tuesday very gusty winds will be sticking around near the surface as strong low level atmospheric winds will be in place just a few thousand feet above us. As well a surface low pressure system to our northeast in Canada as well as a surface high pressure system over the Great Plains will cause the pressure gradient to tighten. When this happens any air in the atmosphere wants to move from higher to lower pressure, when the gradient between pressure readings is tighter, this air will rush a lot faster towards the low. Over the next few days 30 mph wind gusts will occur with some wind gusts approaching 40+ mph especially on Monday.

This windy pattern looks to continue at least till Wednesday and possibly even beyond. Although Wednesday's wind gusts don't look to be as strong, yet cooler temperatures will be transported with northwesterly winds on Wednesday. This will provide a brief cooldown from milder temperatures however we'll still stay above freezing. 

In terms of precipitation over the next week spotty chances will arrive both Monday and Wednesday with two separate systems. On Monday a weak cold front will move through the state line which won't impact temperatures too much but may be just enough to force a few snow showers through the early evening on Monday. Then on Wednesday a clipper system will be following the jet stream which will be very close by. Depending on how much forcing and moisture we can get along the cold front of that system, we could some snowfall through the morning on Wednesday before the shot of colder temperatures arrives.

Our next best precipitation chances won't arrive till the weekend though. As of now good agreement is in place that a low-pressure system from the Southern Plains will make its way through the Midwest by Friday and into Saturday. Timing will still need to be figured out but with such warm surface temperatures continuing rainfall or mixed precipitation type seems to be the most likely outcome as of now. Either way this will be the best chance for widespread precipitation we've had in a while!

Temperatures throughout the week continue to trend in a warmer direction with multiple days this week expected to eclipse 40 degrees. This will be a unique way to start February as normally this time of year we're expecting bitter cold and heavy snowfall! 

Windy weather brings back mild weather next week

 Temperatures are already dropping quite a bit from the upper 30s of this afternoon. Many spots are in the mid-20s as of 9PM with a brisk Northwest wind. Expect a partly cloudy sky and continued NW wind to drop overnight lows near 10° by tomorrow morning.

Sunday will start on a chilly note and remain that way through the day. Winds flip to come from the WSW but gusts near 25 mph will keep things feeling cool. Afternoon highs will be very close to average for this time of year, in the mid/upper 20s. Skies will gradually clear into the afternoon and evening, allowing Sunday night to drop back to the teens again.

The winds of Saturday are a sign of things to come this week, and Monday in particular. A strong pressure gradient will develop overhead between a high pressure to the Southwest and strong low pressure to the Northeast. Air will rush from the high pressure to the low pressure, especially so overhead.

This will bring a strong Southwesterly wind our direction Monday and Tuesday, with the strongest wind gusts during the daytime hours of Monday. Peak gusts could reach 35-45 mph or stronger. Strong winds from the Southwest draw in a milder air mass, bringing highs into the low 40s Monday and Tuesday. Wind direction flips back Northwest Wednesday behind a cold front, bringing temperatures back to the 30s. We may see a few sprinkles/flurries along a weaker front Monday evening and then again Wednesday morning, but much of the area will remain dry.

Few flurries tonight, breezy and mild next week

 There are a few pockets of snow showers showing up on radar this evening. However, much of this will be limited from reaching the surface with drier air in the lowest levels including at the surface (note the dew points in the single digits and more than 10° difference from air temperature).

A few flurries remain possible through 9PM mainly North of I-88 if the snow can overcome the dry air. This is along a warm front that will actually hold temperatures steady overnight. We will briefly drop to the teens through 10/11PM, but most of the night will feature temperatures near 20°.

The milder start to the day tomorrow kicks off a milder afternoon, with highs reaching the mid-30s. This will come with a breezy SW to W wind gusting near 30 mph, so it will feel more like the 20s with wind chill factored in. It will be a partly sunny sky with a few lingering flurries, but dry air will again limit how much reaches the surface.

The weekend and beyond will be a breezy stretch with most days featuring a West wind at least 15-25 mph. Monday, those winds turn more Southwest and will be stronger, gusting near 40 mph at times. Temperature trends almost follow the direction of the wind each day: Saturday will reach the mid-30s before a cold front slides through. Sunday will be chillier with highs only in the 20s, but Monday and Tuesday could reach 40°. High temperatures likely stay in the 30s each day through most of next week.

Milder temperatures into next week

 With another cold night and cold morning ahead this morning, some relief looks to be insight as we look at the weekend and beyond. This week was plagued with consistent snowfall and very cold temperatures, but into next week, the up and down pattern of this winter will continue as milder temperatures once again are set to return.

Through the day today, warm southerly air will help bump up temperatures near the 20-degree mark through the afternoon. However, it'll still be crucial to bundle up heading out this morning as at the time of writing these temperatures are near -5° across the state line. Luckily though the warmer southerly winds will help these temperatures climb through the day with clouds increasing as well.

Temperatures continue to climb into the next two days as well especially tomorrow where southerly winds will continue to help transport warmer air north. Through the next few days including today, isolated flurries will remain possible but expect mainly milder conditions and even instances of sunshine especially on Sunday.

The up and down pattern that has been the story of this winter looks to continue with it already starting this weekend as temperatures will get into the mid 30's on Saturday. Beyond the weekend into next week, this trend looks to flatten out but not in the way you may expect for January. Temperatures the next week as of now all look to be above freezing starting Monday!

Monday and Tuesday a shortwave trough is expected to continue to bring in warmer air from the south and west while as we go into the middle of the week strong ridging and northwest flow is expected to develop. Most often patterns such as these rely on temperature gradients between locations to determine where the most concentrated jet stream winds set up as well as cold temperatures. As it looks right now, we seem to be just on the southwest side of the core of this jet stream which would put us just on the cusp of milder conditions.

This will last for the majority of the week however as Friday comes around, a cutoff low system is expected to develop and move into the Midwest Thursday evening or Friday morning which would bring not only warmer conditions but higher precipitation chances as well.

The 7-Day forecast translates this well as by Monday strong westerly flow aloft will move in with some southerly winds near the low levels pushing us up above freezing. Then by Monday evening the core of the jet stream will be just to our northeast where it looks to settle through the week allowing for us to stay right on the gradient of cooler temperatures. Expect a milder weak ahead but don't put the hats and gloves away just yet!



 

Another cold night, but milder trends ahead

 Many in the Stateline woke up to a fresh snowfall of around an inch to two and half inches of snow from the system yesterday into early this morning. The Rockford airport officially picked up 1.6" in total, bringing our seasonal total up to just over 7". With a clear afternoon sky, that snow was very easy to see from visible satellite, circled below.

Temperatures are already dropping into the single digits for many in the Stateline under a clear sky and high pressure. These conditions will allow temperatures to fall further, with overnight lows near or just below zero with wind chills a touch lower given a light breeze. It will be a cold night/morning, but things will improve gradually through Friday.

This is a perfect example of radiational cooling, with high pressure/light winds allowing solar radiation to escape into space quicker, cooling us off faster. The fresh snow adds to that cooling feature, as the fresh snow limited the solar radiation absorbed today.

Temperatures will rebound to around 20 degrees for Friday afternoon's high amid increasing cloud cover. It may feel a bit cooler than that factoring in a South wind gusting to near 25 mph. Our next weather system will arrive during the evening, bringing us our next slim chance for some light snow showers.

Futurecast depicting the scattered nature of these snow showers well, with the highest coverage likely occurring across Wisconsin and likely not much around Northern Illinois. If we see any snow, it may start as early as 8PM. Isolated flurries may linger into Saturday as well.

Even with the slim chances for snow showers, the weekend will be a much milder one than the bitterly cold one last week. High temperatures will reach the mid-30s Saturday and upper 20s Sunday after a weak cold front. Aside from the few flurries early Saturday, the weekend will be a dry one.

Snow chances end, though winter's bitter chill returns

It's been a very wintry week here in the Stateline from the Arctic cold to yesterday's snowfall.

In total, the Rockford Airport picked up a whopping 1.2", which given how this winter has panned out is very similar to previous events. Snow chances drop for the time being, but the bitter chill returns as we jump into the second half of the week. 

A cold front passed through right before the morning commute, turning winds to the northwest. Lows because of this will end up in the teens, with wind chills landing a few degrees below zero. 

Cloud cover clears as the morning progresses, leaving us with a decent amount of afternoon sun. Despite the sunshine, temperatures remain cold as winds kick up, possibly gusting up to 25 mph at times. This will restrict afternoon highs to the upper teens while also limiting wind chills to the single digits. 

Temperatures then fall into the single digits overnight, possibly below zero for a spot or two. Winds remain breezy, allowing wind chills to drop below zero during the morning commute hours. Friday afternoon will feature a slight improvement in the temperature department as winds shift to the southwest. This will land afternoon highs in the low 20s.

Milder trend into the weekend and beyond

 Following a bitterly cold start to the week, things finally started to thaw out a little bit Wednesday. But that came with some pockets of snow showers, including some minor accumulations. The mild trends continue as we head later into the week and weekend. High temperatures will reach the low 30s Saturday and upper 20s Sunday, with no precipitation chances outside of a small chance Friday night/Saturday morning.

We could see an even milder trend early to mid-next week, including a few days making a run at the 40s. But that all depends on how things evolve in the upper levels of the atmosphere. We will see a strong jet in the upper levels that typically divides the coldest air from milder air. That will certainly be the case next week with the strongest jet sitting near or just Northeast of the Stateline.

Where the jet lines up could allow for a much milder pattern next week, or more shots of cold air. The further South that jet sits, the more frequent punches of cold will be possible. If the jet lines up further North, we will see a milder pattern. The forecast could range a little bit next week depending on the placement of that jet. It is plausible we could make a run at the 40s for a few days next week, if the further North trend persists.

Typically, in these Northwest flow patterns, we don't see much moisture and therefore limited precipitation chances. That is certainly the case in this pattern, but there is a potent wave that arrives Tuesday into Wednesday that may bring a slim chance for a wintry mix, depending on how much moisture we see. But anything we do see would be very light precipitation given the lack of sufficient moisture.