Friday, April 26, 2024

Multiple storm chances likely this weekend, some being severe

A look at water vapor imagery this morning shows the two storm systems that will help drive this weekend's active weather. The first being the low that is spinning over the central plains and the second which is making landfall along the west coast.  

For the most part, the severe threat this afternoon will reside further to the west closer to the low. Locally, heavy rain and small hail will be possible as a few showers and thunderstorms track through during the midday/late afternoon hours. 

A secondary round of showers and thunderstorms is then expected to track in shortly after sunset, with chances lasting into early Saturday. These will be a little more intense, having a better chance for heavy downpours as well as hail.

Despite having a gusty southeasterly wind in place, highs will be limited to the upper 50s, close to 60-degrees. Temperatures from there will remain steady in the upper 50s into Saturday morning.

Saturday has been trending drier and drier by the day as what is known as a "cap" or atmospheric lid keeps storm chances low during the daylight hours. 

With that being said, I would keep an eye on the radar if you have plans Saturday afternoon. If any storm were to break said cap, it would quickly strengthen and become severe. At this moment in time, the chance of that happening is very low. 

What will be present however is a decent amount of sunshine, a stronger southwesterly wind, and highs in the upper 70s, close to 80-degrees.

Gusts Saturday, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours, look to peak around 45mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are then set to increase into Saturday night. 

Sunday's severe threat will be dependent on two things, the first being what occurs with thunderstorm activity to our west Saturday night. The second, the arrival of the secondary upper-level system. Taking these uncertainties into account, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather. Remember to stay weather aware this weekend, especially if you have any outside plans! 

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