Winter Storm Scenarios

If you saw today's forecast, you know a big storm is looming on the horizon, but what we see will depend almost solely on how the storm moves. Since the forecast can still change, let's talk about some of the scenarios we could see with this next system.

Possible Storm Tracks

Model runs are showing two general paths the storm could take. Some models, like the GFS and NAM, are tracking the storm right over Rockford or just to our north. The European model is breaking the trend, keeping the storm south. It's important to note here that the European model has been very consistent in forecasting the path of past storms. In my professional opinion, I'll side with the Euro over the other models almost every time.

Those two potential paths mean two very different things for the Stateline, especially Rockford. If the GFS and NAM hold, the forecast would look like this: A rain/snow mix for Wednesday night and a good chunk of Thursday, with a changeover to snow later in the day. The warmer air that would be pulled in with a northern track would mean less accumulating snow, although some snow on the ground by Friday morning is still a decent bet.

If the European model holds true, we'll be talking a blast of cold air much earlier on Thursday, meaning a lot more snow.

Watches for Thursday's Storm

But the question is how much snow? It's almost impossible to tell at this point, but the heaviest snow totals are always to the north and west of these storms. Knowing this, the National Weather Service has already issued WINTER STORM WATCHES for parts of Wisconsin and Iowa. That watch also includes Jo Daviess County. This is a good indicator of how close we'll be to some big time winter weather.

The storm doesn't need to move a lot to change our forecast. A difference of 50 miles could be the difference an inch of snow and half a foot of the white stuff. We'll have a much clearer picture if what we should see in the next 24-36 hours, and we'll definitely keep you updated as we go through the week. -BA