Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Tranquil Weather Continues Ahead of Snow Chances and Cooler Temperatures

If you were up early enough this morning to experience it, we had our first sunrise before 7AM this year. And it was a beauty. If not, this was this morning's sunrise captured on our skytrack camera out at the Poplar Grove airport. The dry stretch of weather than began yesterday continues into our Tuesday as high pressure is in control of the weather across much of the Midwest. This will lead to a mix of clouds and sun, with seasonable temperatures. Once again, our morning started out with temps in the upper teens to low 20s as wind chills occasionally dipped to around 10°. Rockford was one of those spots that only dropped down to 21° as cloud cover stuck around a tad bit longer than other spots. However, it was a morning where it was essential to put on the heavy coat before heading out.

The afternoon is likely to feature a few more clouds than Monday, as moisture ahead of Wednesday's snow chances increases in the upper-levels. A light westerly wind lingers around throughout the day, nothing too major that would disrupt your afternoon plans or your daily travels. At the surface, this area of high pressure will slide across the Stateline this evening, leading to a brief period of clearing. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, partly cloudy skies are expected allowing our temperatures to sink into the upper teens by tomorrow morning. Conditions look to remain dry for most of our Wednesday, as the lingering dry air aloft in the atmosphere will slowly erode with time. Once it fully erodes, snow chances heighten shortly after sunset.

A low pressure system riding the southern branch of the jet will deepen and strengthen as it slides into central and southern Illinois, bringing the Stateline a good opportunity for accumulating snow. Now, because of the southerly track of this particular system, models are bringing the heaviest bands of snow through areas across central Illinois. Closer to the Stateline, wrap around and deformation snow bands form, leading to the idea that totals are likely going to remain in the 2" to 4" range. This snowfall could be a bit more problematic than what we experienced this past Sunday, as it would likely have an impact for the morning commute on Thursday. Road conditions will begin to deteriorate overnight Wednesday, becoming slick and slippery by Thursday's morning. The biggest uncertainty with this storm system is how far north the shield of light to moderate snow extend.

Once the snow slowly tapers off by Thursday afternoon, the story then switches to the frigidly cold air mass that works in behind an arctic cold front. The coldest air of the season so far will begin filtering in, allowing high temperatures to drop quickly for the end of the work week. Highs for both Thursday and Valentine's Day only look to climb into the teens. Not only are we set to record our first subzero temperature for the winter season on Friday, we're also going to record one of the coldest Valentine's Day on record. Mother nature definitely has a problems with holidays as of recent. Anyway, we have to keep an eye on how cold we get Friday morning. Current thinking leaves our low temperature at -7°, which lands up just shy of the record low of -8° set back on Valentine's Day 1916.

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