Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Round One of Rain Done - Round Two Arrives Thursday

The rain from Wednesday morning and afternoon wasn't much locally, adding up between a tenth, to two tenths, of an inch. Most of the rain Wednesday evening has come to an end, but the clouds, drizzle and even fog will last through much of the night, into Thursday morning. A warm front centered over central and southern Illinois will lift to the north, into northern Illinois, by Thursday afternoon and evening. Right now, it looks like the warm front should lift as far north as southern Wisconsin by 5pm/6pm Thursday.

As the front lifts north moderate, to at times heavy, rain will develop to the south during the morning, lifting into northern Illinois mid to late morning and afternoon. There may be a few embedded thunderstorms within the rain during the first half of the day, but heavy rainfall would be the biggest threat.

Low pressure will continue to lift northeast into central and northeast Iowa late Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms
could redevelop as the air mass ahead of the low, and south of the warm front, become a little more unstable. This may lead to additional storms develop over Iowa, stretching into parts of northern Illinois. If storms do develop, the potential is there for strong to severe storms during the late afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of southern Wisconsin and all of northern Illinois under a slight risk for stronger storms late Thursday. 

Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary concerns, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out over parts of central and northeast Iowa, perhaps far northwest Illinois - where the surface low will be located. If, however, the warm front falls short of the immediate Stateline then any severe threat would be reduced.

Ahead of a strong cold front, temperatures across northern Illinois are forecast to warm into the
mid and upper 50s, close to 60 degrees, even at midnight. But temperatures will quickly fall behind the front Friday morning with temperatures staying in the 30s for much of the afternoon.

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