Rollercoaster Ride Continues, Storm Chances Arrive Overnight

Following yesterday's quick moving system, lingering cloud cover brought a warmer start to the day. Temperatures in most spots wound up 10°-15° warmer, as lows dropped down into the low 40s. However, a light westerly to northwesterly wind is behind the chilliness to the air, bringing wind chills down into the 30s early on. I'd still put on a light jacket, or even a hoodie before heading off to your destination this morning. This warmer start is a sign for things to come, as temperatures this afternoon will end up slightly warmer than highs on Tuesday. But our main focus lies with the very dynamic system that will bring rain chances into Thursday, and rollercoaster temperatures into the upcoming weekend. 

Similar to yesterday, our day begins with thick cloud cover. Skies look to remain mostly cloudy for much of our Wednesday. However, hi-res models are showing a bit of clearing occurring during the mid to late afternoon hours. Which means, we could see a few peeks of sunshine before rain chances ramp up this evening. Overall, many dry hours lie ahead thanks to an area of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Despite light winds out of the northwest, highs later today should top out in the upper 50s. While we stay dry, a warm front is set to develop down in southern Illinois. This warm front is poised to lift closer to the region overnight Wednesday into the predawn hours on Thursday. As warmer and more moist air surges northward, showers and thunderstorms chances become likely.

Shortly after the evening commute, we'll begin to see our first set of showers track into the region. Activity is expected to be scattered and light at first, becoming more widespread as the night carries on. As the warm front finally enters the Stateline during the pre-dawn hours Thursday, that's when our best chance for thunderstorms will occur. Even though the threat for severe weather remains very low, these early-day storms could pack a punch. If you have to be out and about for the early-day commute Thursday morning. having the rain gear with you will be a top priority. Model guidance continues to show showers and a few thunderstorms remaining overhead into the late-morning hours, before conditions dry out for the second half of the day. Once that warm front finally lifts north of the Stateline, strong southerly winds will help temperatures soar into the low 70s. Sounds great doesn't it? Unfortunately, a cold front will bring a much cooler air-mass to the region by the weekend dropping highs into the 40s. Yikes.

While the storms in the morning carry a very low risk for severe weather, that can't be said for the activity that fires up along the associated cold front. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has at least a portion of the region under a "marginal" risk for severe weather. Mainly all of Jo-Daviess county, and the western slice of Green county are in that Marginal risk. On the severe weather risk scale, that's a level 1 of 5. All modes of severe weather are possible, with hail and high wind being the primary concerns. Heavy rainfall is also going to be a primary concern.Although the tornado risk carries the lowest concern, an isolated tornado is possible, mainly in the Marginal risk. Rain chances should diminish shortly after sunrise Friday morning.