Friday, August 19, 2022

Heavy Rain a Big Possibility This Weekend, Low Severe Threat

Friday's Forecast:

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in portions of far northwest Illinois through sunrise. Partly cloudy skies are to follow, with high peaking in the mid to upper 80s. 

It's during this "dry time" where the atmosphere will recharge, allowing a secondary round of showers and thunderstorms to develop to our west, shifting eastward as time progresses. With a lot more moisture to work with, this round will bring the potential for heavier downpours. This round looks to come to an end by Saturday morning, but additional development will occur as both the surface and upper level low approach the region.

Weekend Chances:

Forecast models then spirals the surface low into the northern half of Illinois during the latter half of the day Saturday. With it comes the likelihood for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. 

Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center placed a majority of the Stateline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Any storm that does show severe characteristics will be able to produce damaging straight-line winds and small-sized hail. With the extra "spin" from the surface low pushing on through, I wouldn't be surprised if any of the stronger showers or thunderstorms do showcase a funnel or two. With that being said, the tornado threat is very low.

Rain chances from there look to carry on into the early portions of Sunday. However, as the surface low exits the western Great Lakes, so will our opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. 

Expect conditions to turn a bit more quiet for the late-day hours Sunday with temperatures peaking in the upper 70s. Unlike the last time we were forecasting a multi-day rain event, flooding should not be a concern this time around. High pressure then takes hold of our atmosphere for the beginning of next week, allowing a good amount of sunshine to return. High temperatures do climb a few degrees, peaking in the low 80s into Wednesday.

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