Monday, February 20, 2023

Tranquil Monday Ahead, Next Impactful Winter Storm to Follow

Quiet Monday:

With sun-filled skies and mild temperatures in place over the weekend, most, if not all of the snow from late last week has melted away. Further melting is set to take place today as more of the same is expected to start the work week.

A good portion of the day will be spent under a mix of clouds and sunshine. That, along with today's south to southwesterly wind will help temperatures get back into the low. Like Saturday and Sunday, today's forecast high of 44° will land between 5° to 15° above-average. Following a quiet PM commute, clouds will increase as our next cold front swings in from the west. In a similar fashion to last night's front, this one will pass through without a trace of precipitation. However, winds will increase, gusting between 30-35 mph at times into early Tuesday. 

Midweek Mess:

With gradual clearing taking place prior to sunrise, tomorrow will begin on a sun-filled note. By the afternoon, we'll trade the sunshine for cloud cover as our next storm system approaches. It won't be until Tuesday evening in which we in the Stateline will see precipitation with this event begin, falling in the form of light snow. A majority of it however will fall to our north across Wisconsin. 

As the low ejects into the central plains, a surplus of rich-moisture will spread across the midsection of the U.S. A few scattered showers will be possible early on in the day. However, the brunt or more intense rainfall rates is scheduled to move in during the latter half of Wednesday. 

Rain at times could be heavy. As sunset inches closer, we'll have to keep a close eye on our regional temperatures. It's during this time in which forecast models place most of our local airports close to or even below the freezing mark of 32°. As a result, all wintry precipitation types including freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible Wednesday evening. This of course will create quite the mess and quite the headache for anybody out on the roads.

Now, there is still wiggle room for the track of this storm system to change. A subtle shift northward in the storm track would bring slightly warmer temperatures our way, allowing precipitation to primarily fall as rain. 

However, a subtle shift southward in the track will increase our chances for more snow rather than rain. It’s certainly something we should monitor over the next 24-36 hours. While mixed precipitation may linger into the early stages of Thursday, strong westerly winds will make their presence known. Gusts throughout the day could registered on either side of the 40 mph mark. The combination of the potential ice and strong winds may lead to tree damage and isolated power outage. Something else to keep an eye on. By the weekend, our weather pattern turns more quiet with highs climbing back above-average.

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