This is What Winter Is Supposed to Be Like!

Arctic air from Alaska and Canada has settled into the Stateline.  Temperatures in and around Rockford were the coldest they have been so far this winter dropping below zero in Belvidere, Harvard,  Monroe, and Galena.  The unofficial low at the Rockford airport was 2 degrees.  It has not been that cold in Rockford since February 11th of 2011. 

The cold ridge of high pressure stretches from Lake Superior across Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas into Texas.  It will shift to the south and east today as the next weather system over the northern plains moves into the mid west this evening.  A fairly strong pressure gradient will allow for brisk southwesterly winds to develop by afternoon gusting above 25 mph.  Skies will be mostly sunny today becoming partly cloudy later this afternoon with a high in the low 20's. The front will push southeast across northern Illinois between 1 am and 3 am early Thursday.  It will be breezy with a chance of a little light snow or flurries overnight.  The low will be near 6 degrees, but with the inflow of fresh arctic air on Thursday temperatures will not rise much, and the afternoon high will be around 8 degrees.  Wind chills are expected to be -5 to -15 in the early morning hours.  Arctic high pressure will settle into the area on Thursday night, and temperatures will drop to near zero or a little below.  Only an increase in clouds from the next system approach from the west will keep temperatures from dropping even lower.  On Friday it appears as if there will be a good set up for accumulating snow.  Warmer air with a fair amount of moisture will over-run  the slowly departing arctic air mass causing snow to develop.  Although there does not appear to be low pressure development at the surface, there will be good mid & upper level support.  Clipper like (dry) snow will spread across the area on Friday.  Snow to water ratios will probably be at least 20:1 and may end up even higher.  So our area could easily pick up 4" of fluffy (dry) snow, possibly more.   We will be watching this system closely for you.  The snow is expected to end on Friday evening, and high pressure will follow in behind the departing system on Saturday bringing our area mostly sunny skies.  Temperatures will still be chilly, reaching the low 20's in the afternoon.  Forecast confidence decreases later into the weekend and early next week with another pattern shift apparently taking place.  It will be milder with temperatures reaching into the middle 30's allowing for any precipitation that occurs to be a rain/snow mix.  No major systems are anticipated early next week.