End of October could go out with a BIG bang

The end of the month is not looking pretty for the Northeast Coast with potentially a very large storm system impacting New York by Tuesday.  We'll talk more about that in just a bit. 

First, I want to get to the weather for today.  Cloud cover from this morning has partially cleared and temperatures have responded nicely.  We're already sitting in the low 70s at 11am and I think we have a decent chance of hitting 80° this afternoon.  The record high for today is 80° which was set back in 1963.  Don't get too used to it because as the old saying goes, "all good things must come to an end" will apply for us Thursday when a cold front moves through.  The front currently stretches from northern Wisconsin southwest near Des Moines, IA.  A few rain showers have been occuring back behind the front and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon and evening as an upper level low moves through the Midwest.  As the front marches east tonight and Thursday morning cloud cover will increase with thunderstorms moving in after Noon for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Once the front passes the cold air funnels in behind with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s for the weekend.  As I talked about in the previous post Tuesday the potential for the colder air to stick around through end of October looks like it may happen.  Now, let's discuss the potential for 'one of the biggest storms to hit the northeast' forecast for next week.

Hurricane Sandy sits just south of Jamaica with sustained winds (as of 11am) of 80 mph, central pressure of 973 mb and moving north/northeast around 13 mph.  Sandy is expected to make landfall in southeast Jamaica this evening, move over eastern Cuba Thursday and then into the western Atlantic by Friday.  Tropical Storm Watches have already been posted for the east and southeast coast of Florida with further watches likely being extended northward up the coast in the days to follow. 

European Model

The weather forecast models are still diverging on the track of this storm once it enters into the Atlantic with the European model still forecasting one of the biggest storms to hit the northeast coast slamming into New York Monday night.  This would mean a significant wind and rain event from North and South Carolina northward.



GFS Model



The GFS model, however, still continues with its slightly eastward track into the Atlantic Monday night with landfall further north and a couple days later.  The overall hemispheric pattern features a trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes with a blocking ridge of high pressure over the Canadian Maritime and North Atlantic which makes me think the forecast from the European model may be a little far fetched, but it's usually the more consistent of the two when forecasting storm systems.  Another interesting feature that developed with the latest runs is the possibility of the low retrograding back west into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  Either way the East Coast will need to brace for strong winds and heavy rains likely to impact beginning this weekend.