NOAA Releases Spring and Flood Outlook

Thursday morning I sat in on a conference call with the forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center to discuss the release of their 2013 Spring Outlook.  The outlook identifies the likelihood of spring flood and a three month expectation (April, May, June) for temperature, precipitation and drought.  Numerous factors including the current U.S. snowpack, drought, soil moisture and temperature, streamflow, current precipitation, Pacific Ocean temperatures and various climate forecast models are used to put together the outlook. 


Spring Outlook:
One forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center stated that U.S. temperatures will likely remain below average through the end of March and possibly even into the first week of April, but there were indications that a possible rapid warm-up may occur after the 5th or 6th of April.  This raises some concern for an increase in flooding; especially to the north where a fairly deep, late season snowpack remains.

The Red River of the North between eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota along with the Souris River in North Dakota have the potential for moderate and major flooding.  Also Devils and Stump Lakes in northeast North Dakota have a 50% chance of rising nearly two feet which would flood roughly 20,000 acres of farmland and roadways across the High Plains.

Closer to home, the melting of late-season snow to the north may cause minor flooding across the Mississippi River basin which includes parts of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  March has been a fairly cold month so the ground in these areas remain frozen which enhances the risk for spring flooding.

Temperature and Precipitation:

Above nortmal temperatures this spring (April, May, June) are likely over a vast majority of the United States.  Below normal temperatures are possible across the Pacific Northwest and extreme Great Plains.  There is a higher probability of experiencing above normal precipitation for much of the Great Lakes; including Wisconsin and Illinois with drier than normal conditions for the west, Rockies, southwest, Texas and expanding across the Gulf Coast.

Drought:
Roughly 51% of the country remains in moderate, or worse, drought.  This is an improvement, however, when compared to last year when nearly two thirds of the U.S. were experiencing a moderate or higher drought.  Drought conditions have improved across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin but drought conditions will continue in California, Southwest, Rockies, Texas and Florida.  These are areas that have been hard hit with the drought in recent years.