Cooler, but Dry this Weekend

On Friday, temperatures across the Stateline were cooler than they have been in a week. In fact, it was the first time since the 22^nd that temperatures were colder than the daily normal in Rockford. This was the result of cool northwesterly winds chasing a cold front stretching across the Ohio Valley. These northerly winds will persist over the next couple of days resulting in a cooler, but dry, weekend ahead.

As of Friday evening, a developing high pressure system is strengthening over southern Saskatchewan. This system will dip south into the Dakotas early Saturday, quickly intensifying between now and then. Winds diverging from the anticyclone will bring northwesterly winds into the Stateline through most of Saturday. This dry air advection also keeps low and mid-level dewpoints on the low side resulting in plenty of sunshine. This sunshine will provide lots of diabatic heating and help even out some of the cool air being pulled into the Stateline hopefully keeping temperatures in the lower 70’s for Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday, the system is forecast to be right overhead meaning Sunday is expected to be even sunnier. All the while, rain chances are minimal through the weekend. The next good chance for rain comes Monday, particularly later in the day, when temperatures are forecast to warm a few degrees before shooting back up into the 80’s on Tuesday.

Weather Remains Tranquil & Spring-Like into the Weekend

A strong cold front passing through the region earlier today definitely made the air feel a bit more comfortable for those who had to head into work this morning. The last few mornings featured both muggy weather conditions and low temps in the upper 60s-low 70s. Temperatures this morning landed about 5°-15° degrees cooler with most locations waking up to upper 50s. With that being said, this morning's cold frontal passage isn't only bringing big changes to the forecast for our Friday, but also for the upcoming weekend.

Behind the front, skies have cleared out leading to a sun-filled start to our Friday. Now that our surface winds are directly out of the northwest, a cooler and drier air mass over southern Canada will begin to filter into the region. This will allow for sunshine to stick around into the afternoon. It may be a tad bit breezy at times, as these northwesterly winds could gust upwards of 20-25 mph at times. But hey, at least it won't feel as muggy as the past few days have felt. High temperatures to end the work week are going to slowly climb into the low 70s,  which is about 5° to 10° below average. A comfortable evening will lead to a refreshingly quiet night with partly cloudy skies overhead. Overnight lows will fall into he upper 40s and low 50s by Saturday morning, making for a beautiful night to have the windows open.

In fact, what if I told you that you could give the air conditioners a break this entire weekend? Yep, I said it! The comfortable weather we'll see throughout the day today is set to stick around for the upcoming weekend. An area of high pressure will slowly sink down from the Upper Great Plains settling over the Stateline by sunrise Sunday morning. This will help keep the sunshine in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, along with highs topping out in the low 70s. Humidity will not be an issue either as dew points are expected to stay in the upper 40s-low 50s, very comfortable levels for outdoor activities.

If you do have any outdoors plans for the weekend, be sure to put on a good amount of sunscreen before heading out. With sunshine in the forecast today, tomorrow, and on Sunday, it won't take long for you to get sunburn. The late-May sunshine will contribute to a UV Index of 7 or higher during this 3 day stretch. That equals a burn time of 25 minutes or less. So, it will be important to put some on before heading out, and to have some with you while you are out and about. But otherwise, have a fantastic weekend!

Localized Flash Flooding Possible Thursday Evening

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING has been issued for Carroll and northern Whiteside counties Thursday evening until 10:15pm. A little after 4pm, trained weather spotters reported over two inches of rain had fallen in Mt. Carroll, with creeks at bankfull and rising. Additional rain showers through the evening will continue the flooding risk, with flash flooding either occurring or occurring shortly. Flooding in area creeks, streams and low lying areas can be expected in the warned area.

Further to the south and east, stronger thunderstorms are moving through parts of Lee and DeKalb counties. The storm in southwest DeKalb County will continue to move northeast this evening, possibly with winds gusting to 50mph.

The pockets of heavier rainfall are beginning to decrease in coverage, but the southwest to northeast band of rain will continue to slowly move to the east. Most of the rain will be ending between 10pm and Midnight following the passage of a cold front. High pressure is then set to move in for the weekend with temperatures cooling off into the low 70s.

Two Tornadoes Confirmed from Saturday Evening Storms in Northern Illinois

The Chicago National Weather Service released new information regarding damage that occurred in Ogle and DeKalb counties following strong to severe thunderstorms last Saturday afternoon and evening.

An EF-1 tornado, with peak winds estimated between 90-100 mph, occurred about one mile west/southwest of Chana (Ogle County) at approximately 4:30pm Saturday afternoon near the intersection of Rocky Hollow Road and E.

Damage in Chana on Canfield Road

Canfield Road. It was on the ground for 0.3 miles and had a width of 100 yards. This tornado did significant damage to outbuildings at two farmsteads, along with knocking down trees and power poles.

Another tornado occurred at approximately 6:12pm Saturday evening about five miles northeast of Genoa in DeKalb County. This tornado was reported by law enforcement, and estimated as an EF-0. It was reported to have touched down near Melms and Polk Roads, damaging a 40x20 barn, with debris blown into a downstream field. Power poles were also damaged for about a mile from the reported touchdown. This tornado dissipated before reaching I-90.



More information on the severe weather and damage from Saturday's storms can be found here from the Chicago National Weather Service.

More Rain Chances Today & Tomorrow, Drier Towards the Weekend

Yesterday marked the 4th straight day that the Rockford International Airport observed a high over 80°. Rockford's official high was a scorching 87°, which now stands as the warmest day of 2020 so far. Similar to Tuesday, a quiet start to the day will lead to a summer-like afternoon with a chance for scattered activity.

As the Stateline woke up this morning, skies remained partly to mostly cloudy as temperatures once again started out comfortably in the upper 60s to low 70s. This morning's cloud cover should dissipate some as the morning progresses, leaving behind a mix of sunshine and a few cumulus clouds. As these cumulus clouds become more established and grown in size, this will lead to another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorm chances beginning after 3PM.

Unlike the thunderstorms we encountered yesterday, severe weather is not expected later today. Our atmosphere is going to soak up a decent amount of moisture as we head into the afternoon. However, the two components that are lacking is wind shear, or change in wind with height, and available instability.

Any thunderstorm later today will be capable of producing lightning of course, but also heavy downpours and gusty winds. Due to the abundance of atmospheric moisture, any thunderstorm that does develop could drop a quick 1/2" to 1" of rainfall. We've been very fortunate that rain chances over the past week or so have been hit or miss scenarios, allowing river flooding or just flooding in general to slowly improve. Overall, this round of rain will begin to wind down by midnight tonight, leaving the Stateline under a mostly cloudy sky into Thursday morning.

Thursday's forecast comes with another chance for the Stateline to see some rain. However this time, it could come at heavier doses. A cold front that is currently draped across portions of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin will slide into the region by the afternoon tomorrow. Ahead of of this frontal boundary will be a round of showers and thunderstorms that looks to get start by the mid-day hours. Heavy rain is definitely a possibility throughout the afternoon and evening hours, especially if a thunderstorm slowly roams over your area. Once again, severe weather is not expected. Before the cold front passes through Thursday night, highs for Thursday will end up slightly cooler in the mid to upper 70s.

Thankfully, Thursday will be the last time that we mention a chance for rain until the beginning of next week. Behind this cold front, a cooler and very dry air mass filters into the Midwest and the Great Lakes Region. Clouds will quickly give way to plenty of sunshine for the end of the work week, with highs dropping into the low 70s. What's also going to be noticeable Friday and this weekend will be how muggy the air feels. Dew points after the frontal passage will take a blow, dropping from the upper 60s Thursday, down to the low 50s for Saturday, and into Monday. This will make for a beautiful, sunny, and less humid weekend for the Stateline.

Tropical Storm Bertha Forms Off the Southeast Coast

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane is off to quick start as we witnessed the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur back on the 16th of May.

This morning, an area of low pressure off the southeast coast was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The latest advisory shows Bertha's center is right off the South Carolina coast, and has estimated peak winds of 45 mph. The latest track for this newly formed tropical system has it moving slowly to the northwest, making landfall near Charleston, SC by this afternoon. Folks who live closer to the shoreline are going to be dealing with heavy amounts of rainfall, leading to flash flooding. Another threat that comes with tropical systems is the enhancement of rip currents.

Summertime Heat Sticks Around, Showers Possible Late

First off, I hope everyone got to enjoy their Memorial Day holiday yesterday. The "unofficial start to summer" lived up to it's name as Rockford observed 3 straight 80° highs over Memorial Day weekend. It's been a hot minute since the Rockford International Airport saw 3 straight days with highs in the 80s, stretching back to the middle of September last year. With that being said, this summer-like weather pattern is also featured in the forecast for today, with another chance for a few showers late in the day.

It was another comfortable and mild start to our day as the Stateline woke up to temperatures in the low to mid 60s. There were a few showers that streamed into region from the south early on this morning. Once they dissipated, a few clouds were leftover allowing for a a great view of a the  sunrise over the Stateline. With a little more sunshine in the forecast today, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for highs. However, it will feel muggy out there as a breeze out of the southeast helps dew points rise into the mid to upper 60s once again. Under a mix of clouds & sun, there will be plenty of opportunities to head outdoors today. If you do go outside today, be sure to put on a good amount of sunscreen to avoid the risk of sunburn. The UV index is still pretty high today with an index of 8, which equals a burn time of 20 minutes.

Along with that summertime heat and humidity comes a chance for a few showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm later today. An area of low pressure will swing northward into western Iowa by this afternoon, bringing rain chances to the Stateline this evening. The best time frame for these showers and thunderstorms to pop up will be between 6PM to 10PM, but no severe weather is expected at the moment. The higher threat for severe weather is off to the west in central and eastern Iowa, closer to the surface low. Any activity lingering into tonight will fully taper off before midnight, leaving skies partly to mostly cloudy as we head into the middle of the week.

A Very Summer-Like Memorial Day is Ahead, Showers & Storms Possible

Summer wasn't too shy to make an appearance for the "unofficial start of summer. Highs for Saturday and Sunday both climbed into the 80s, marking the first time that the Rockford International Airport observed an 80 degree high since October 1st. If you're keeping count, that is a gap consisting of 234 days making it the 5th longest stretch between 80° highs on record. As we celebrate those that have given the ultimate sacrifice today, this summer-like stretch continues. But it may be essential to keep an eye on the radar throughout the day if you have any outdoor plans.

It was an unseasonably warm start to the holiday as temperatures began in the upper 60s for most locations. To put that into perspective, Rockford's average low for May 25th is 51° a mere 18° to 20° above average. That should just give you a great idea on how the rest of our Monday is going to shape up temperature-wise. The rest of our Memorial Day is going to have similar feel to Sunday, but with a slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms during the second half of the day. The continuation of these warm southerly to southwesterly winds at the surface will help boost our temperatures into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. However, we are going to once again feel muggy as dew points will climb into the mid to upper 60s.

Current thinking suggests that we'll see scattered activity increase by the early afternoon hours, and stretch into our evening. Although this activity will remain scattered in nature, I would definitely keep the umbrella on hand just in case. A few of these storms may be on the stronger to severe side as the Storm Prediction Center expanded the Marginal Risk eastward to include a majority of the Stateline this morning. A Marginal Risk is level 1 of 5 in the categories for severe weather, as storms this afternoon and evening could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. Storm chances hold on into the early hours of our night tonight before drying out to partly to mostly cloudy skies by Tuesday morning.

You will also need to lather up in sunscreen if you are going to be outside today for a long period of time. The late-May sun-angle will contribute to high levels of ultraviolet rays as our UV index is at a 9 today. What does that mean exactly? Signs of sunburn will begin to appear in as little as 15-25 minutes. Whether you're grilling delicious holiday cuisine, going for a run, or going fishing today, its would be wise to put on that sunscreen before heading outdoors.

Tuesday seems to begin on a dry note before shower chances increase once again by late afternoon. Surface winds ahead of an slow moving cold frontal boundary are going to remain out of the south-southwest which will lead to another large influx of rich moisture. As of a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to pop up across the eastern half of Iowa, with a few of these showers spreading eastward into the Stateline by the late afternoon-evening hours. As far as severe weather, tomorrow's threat remains to the northwest in the northeast corner of Iowa and western Wisconsin. Highs by Tuesday afternoon will climb into the 80s for the 4th straight day. It will still feel a bit muggy Tuesday afternoon, but there will be dry hours just like today that will allow for time outside.