Today Remains Dry Ahead of Active and Stormy Stretch of Weather

Fortunately, temperatures to start our Wednesday were slightly warmer, lessening the potential for frost across the area. However, many who stepped our the door early this morning were greeted to a beautiful sunrise.

Skies remained mostly clear overnight last night thanks to an area of high pressure that slid into the Great Lakes Region this morning. Most of our daylight hours today will be dry. Winds have been on the lighter side so far this morning, but these southeasterly surface winds are expected to pick up as the day wears on, leading to not only an increase in cloud cover, but highs in the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. Winds could occasionally gust upwards of 30 mph at times, and should remain breeze into tonight. If you plan to go on a walk, or do any work around the yard, rain chances look to hold off until after sunset this evening.

The first round of showers seem to arrive sometime between 8PM and 11PM. The rain, which will start out scattered and light in nature, will become much more widespread and drenching overnight, as a warm front lifts into northern Illinois. Along with this frontal boundary will be an abundance amount of moisture and a little instability. Several hours of moderate to, at times, heavy rain will soak most of the Stateline, and a few thunderstorms may be capable of producing small-sized hail. Although the severe threat for tonight's activity is marginal, a higher threat for severe weather will be present heading into the second half of Thursday.

Our region will see a break from the activity by mid-day tomorrow. This will allow for a small window of dry time before the next round of active weather arrives by late afternoon and early evening. Now, depending on how far north this warm frontal boundary lifts before it stalls will be one factor into the atmosphere becoming unstable by the afternoon. The other main factor will be the amount of sunshine. If the sun makes a few appearances, that would continue to help the atmosphere destabilize a bit more.

Referring back to the frontal boundary, most models this morning stalled this boundary right over the Stateline region, leaving our areas in northern Illinois under "the warm sector" of this storm system. Meteorologically speaking, the "warm sector" is the area of the low pressure system that's in between the warm front and the cold front, and where your best chance for strong to severe storms will lie. As the cold front pushes into the region from the west Thursday evening, the threat for potentially severe storms increase. As of this morning, The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of our viewing area under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with a higher threat located to the south.

Hi-res models continued to show a cluster of showers and thunderstorms forming between 4PM and 6PM on Thursday. Storms that formulate look to congeal into a line pretty quickly, switching the primary hazards to damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours. With that said, flash flooding could develop in a few spots, especially in areas where thunderstorms are able to "train" or sit over a certain area for a prolonged period of time. The axis of the heaviest rainfall remains to the south, but I wouldn't be surprised to see rainfall totals of 1-2" across the area. Any activity lingering into Thursday night will wind down by Friday morning, leading to a dry end to the work week.