Much needed rainfall Monday afternoon and evening

It's been music to the ears of many this afternoon as a steady rain has fallen for the majority of the area, although in some locations it has been a little less. Rainfall totals under some of the heavier downpours have added up to over half an inch. That's as much rainfall that many have seen the entire month of August.

The rain will continue to move east as a cold front slides across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, coming to an end between 7pm and 8pm. Winds will shift around to the Northwest tonight and Tuesday, with highs on Tuesday warming into the mid 70s.  

While the rain won't completely make up for the deficit we've acquired during the month of August, it does put a dent into the nearly four inch deficit. Skies will dry out for the night but the chance for rain does return late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Several Cold Fronts Bring Rain Chances to the Stateline, The First Arriving Today

Before we jump into the forecast for the start of the work week, I want to give a very special shout-out to Friday's cold front. Because wow, what a beautiful weekend the Stateline had weather-wise! After 6 straight days with temperatures and heat indices in the 90s, both Saturday and Sunday featured highs about 10° to 15° cooler. For those like me that were tired of the extreme heat, we definitely got our wish. And after taking a peek at models this morning, it doesn't look like temperatures will climb that high as we head into the beginning of September. However, it has been a VERY dry August here in the Stateline. Several cold fronts swinging in this week will bring rain chances to the area, with the first arriving by this afternoon.

As for the start of our day, conditions were dry and comfortable under a mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures as many of you walked out the door were observed in the upper 50s, with Rockford being on the few spots starting out in the low 60s. As this cold front approaches the area, clouds will thicken up as we head into the afternoon, with highs climbing into the low 80s once again. By about 2-3PM, that is when we will see a few light showers roam into the Stateline. Showers that linger into the evening should exit the area by about 8-9PM. Once the cold front progresses through the region, a drier air mass will allow cloud cover to slowly decrease into Tuesday morning.

Now, rainfall accumulations with the activity later on today is expected to be very light, as this cold front doesn't have much moisture to work with. Hopefully we can squeeze out more than a trace with today's rain chances. Because with today being the last day of August, we have only recorded .52" of rainfall for the entire month at the Rockford International Airport. If we happen to not record any rainfall, this August will go down in the record books as the 4th driest August on record.

Aside from today's cold front, two more cold fronts are set to bring in a few more rain chances into the first weekend of September. Similar to today's cold front, Thursday's also has little moisture to work with. However, the cold front that arrives late this weekend into Labor Day seems to have a little more moisture at its disposal. This will give us a better chance for some rainfall here in the Stateline. This trio of cold fronts also keep temperatures cool into September with highs being confined into the upper 70s and low 80s. So thankfully, no 90s in the 7 day forecast. However, we do need the rainfall.

August rainfall deficit continues to grow as the month comes to an end

Rainfall has been hard-pressed to come by lately as the last measurable rain fell back on the 10th of August in Rockford. Since then our skies have been dry and will continue to remain dry through at least Monday afternoon. Month-to-date, August is tied for the fourth driest August on record with only 0.52 inches of rain recorded.

The drier than normal conditions continue to grow across much of northern and central Illinois, with a few places in west-central and far northeast Illinois reporting moderate drought conditions. With little rainfall in the forecast the next few days, I wouldn't be surprised if some places locally are placed under moderate drought conditions with the newest update.

Now there are a few chances for rain this upcoming week as a series of cold fronts work through the Midwest, but we may have to wait a week before seeing a more significant chance for rain. The first cold front is forecast to come through Monday late afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front southwest winds will bring temperatures up a few degrees from Sunday, with most in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Moisture will increase but with the forcing shifted well to the north in Canada, the chance for

widespread rainfall looks pretty low. That front will settle to the south Tuesday, with only an isolated shower chance during the afternoon.

The second front, a stronger cold front, arrives mid-day Thursday. Again, moisture remains limited with this front and it may very well come through dry. Temperatures, however, will drop rather quickly as a push of colder air arrives Thursday night. Highs on Thursday will warm into the low 80s, but then drop into the low 50s by

Friday morning - almost a 30 degree temperature drop.

The third cold front, another strong front, looks to arrive sometime late into the next weekend or following week. This front may have a little more moisture to work with as high pressure shifts into the southeast and could be our 'best' chance for rainfall over the next 7 days. Temperatures behind that front will also drop quickly, keeping us below average for the first full week of September.

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Ahead of Weekend Cooldown

Summer hasn't been messing around this week, as high temperatures since Sunday have climbed over the 90° mark. This type of extreme heat is something that the Stateline hasn't seen since the beginning of July. We'll have the potential to add another 90° day for the end of the work week, so it would be wise to continue practicing heat safety. But it will also be a great idea to be weather ready this evening, as an approaching cold front will bring the threat for severe weather to the area.

As you woke up this morning, the region remained warm & muggy, but dry as all of the thunderstorm activity had been confined to Central and Southern Wisconsin. Thunderstorm chances for the Stateline begin to increase later on this afternoon and evening, especially between 5PM and 10 PM. As of the latest update from The Storm Prediction Center, the entire forecast area remains under an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather. This category means that if ingredients come together, numerous severe storms will be possible. All severe threats are possible into Friday evening, with strong damaging winds and large hail being the primary concerns. The tornado risk is small, however is non-zero. That means there is the potential for an isolated tornado or two as these storms move through the area.

Now, there are complications with today's severe set-up. Overall, model runs haven't had a good grip on today's severe weather set up all morning. In fact, they didn't have a good handle on things during the evening yesterday either. The ingredients for severe weather however are in place. We'll have a high amount of instability in the atmosphere this afternoon, along with plenty of moisture ahead of the approaching cold front. However, do these ingredients come together is the question? A few obstacles could hinder our severe chances, one of them being the storms that passed through Minnesota this morning and are now approaching the area from the northwest. Current thinking is that this cluster of storms could send out a large outflow boundary (rain cooled air), ahead of the cold front. If this outflow boundary does clip the Stateline, it would effectively cool and stabilize the atmosphere, forcing the cold front south of Interstate 80. When then atmosphere stabilizes, it significantly lowers our chances to see severe weather. So, it's going to be very important to watch the placement of the cold front into this afternoon and see if these morning storms form of an outflow boundary.

As mentioned before, there are a few uncertainties with how this afternoon and evening is going to pan out. Regardless, the possibility of severe weather happening is present and you should be weather ready just in case. Make sure that you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings, whether it be through your programmed weather radio, or watching Eyewitness News, or even by using the First Warn Weather App on your cell phone. Secondly, have your safe place prepared, and your severe weather kit ready to go. In that kit should be extra food, water, clothing, and other essential items that you'll need in case severe weather threatens your area.

Strong/severe storms possible Friday late afternoon and evening

The risk for strong and severe storms will be present Friday late afternoon and evening as a cold front moves south from Wisconsin. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin under an 'enhanced risk' for strong/severe storms for Friday evening.

A cold front currently centered over central Wisconsin Thursday evening has been the focus for rapid storm development during the afternoon and evening. A few isolated thunderstorms will be

possible during the evening further south, but the greatest risk will remain north of the state line. A storm complex is expected to develop late Thursday night/early Friday morning over the Plains, quickly shifting east and southeast through Minnesota and Wisconsin by daybreak Friday. If those storms develop and shift further south into northern Illinois it would increase the chance for a few thunderstorms Friday morning locally. Those storms would likely help stabilize the atmosphere, to some degree, which could take away from the storm potential later in the day.  

If, however, the storm complex isn't quite as strong or the storms remain further north our atmosphere would have more energy to fuel thunderstorms that are forecast to develop along the cold front from Iowa to southwest Wisconsin during the afternoon. The timeline for Friday evening storms would roughly be between 4pm/5pm and 9pm/10pm. All hazards of severe weather would be possible including damaging winds, large hail and even isolated tornadoes.

Stay up to date with the latest forecast for Friday and make sure to remain 'weather aware' throughout the afternoon. 

Hottest Day of the Year Possible Today as Extreme Heat Continues

 

It's been a sweltering stretch here in the Stateline the past couple of days. High temperatures at the Rockford International Airport have climbed into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices creeping closer to the triple digit mark. If you are like me and are wondering when we are going to get some much needed relief from the heat, unfortunately that holds off until the weekend. Another day of extreme heat is expected for our Wednesday. The only difference with today's forecast is that today could wind up as the warmest day of the year.

Unlike Monday morning, the First Warn radar was quiet as many stepped out the door this morning. However, this morning did feature warm and muggy conditions, with both our temperatures and dew points falling into the upper 60s and low 70s. That should tell the tale for the rest of our Wednesday, as temperatures quickly climb into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Currently, we are forecasting a high of 96°, which falls a degree short of the record high of 97° set back in 1953. As the saying goes, "records were meant to be broken". We'll see how much today's sunshine, and southwesterly surface winds push us this afternoon. So, there is a chance we could end the day with a new record high. However, as we've seen the past couple of days, it sure has felt hotter outside. When you factor in the dew points, heat indices will approach the triple digit mark once again.

That is why is it very essential to keep practicing heat safety, especially if your plans take you outdoors later today. Drink plenty of water, dress comfortably and lightly, and make sure to take frequent breaks in either the shade or in an air-conditioned room if possible. Also, something to keep in mind during the extreme heat is your pets well-being. With today being National Dog Day, just make sure to keep their paws in mind. As temperatures quickly rise into the low to mid, even the upper 90s, the pavement temperature is going to be way hotter than that. So, try to walk them on grassy surfaces to avoid the steamy hot pavement, and also shorten their walk times. Remember, pets are family too. Give them the same safety and love that you give to yourself and the ones around you. 

Active & Stormy Morning Gives Way to Another Hot Afternoon

It was a pretty active start to our Tuesday, as a sinking cold front sparked up a few strong thunderstorms across the northeast portions of the forecast area. A few of these storms, being severe warned due to their capability of producing very strong winds and small-sized hail. Now if your a night owl (like I used to be) and live in the Rockford area, you were greeted to a nice lightning show as storms passed to our northeast. The rest of the morning has been dry for the most part, with the exception of a few light showers and sprinkles. The threat for showers winds down by 9 AM, with all attention turning toward the afternoon of heat that's ahead. 

Similar to Sunday and yesterday, Today features another hot and humid afternoon with highs topping out in the low 90s. Any cloud cover leftover by this morning's thunderstorm activity is slowly going to clear out by the afternoon. There is a degree of uncertainty with the heat for this afternoon, and it's  thanks to same frontal boundary that brought us the thunderstorm activity earlier this morning. As of the most recent surface analysis, that frontal boundary is currently residing right over the Wisconsin/Illinois border. If that boundary nudges anymore to the south, highs may only top out in the upper 80s. However, model guidance this morning shows that this frontal boundary is going to slowly lift northward heading into this afternoon, which will help continue this summer-like stretch.

Thanks to dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices through the afternoon are going to land in the upper 90s for the Rockford area. However, if you live closer to the Mississippi River, heat indices could climb to or above the 100-degree mark. For this reason, the National Weather Service has placed Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside counties under a Heat Advisory. This advisory is set to go into effect at 1 PM this afternoon, and will expire at 7PM this evening. Regardless of where you live, plan your day as if your town was under this heat advisory. If you plan on spending time outdoors, be sure to take it easy. Drink plenty of water, and make sure to take frequent breaks in the shade, or inside with the air-conditioned building if possible.

The peak of this wave of extreme heat is set to arrive Wednesday afternoon, as high temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. When you combine that with dew points in the low 70s, our heat index values will have a chance to climb up to or over the 100-degree mark. So, it's going to be a high priority the next few days to keep practicing heat safety. This begs the question, is there ANY relief from this extreme heat in sight? I am very happy to say that there is. We'll have to wait till Friday, but a strong cold front is set to bring big changes to our temperatures just in time for the upcoming weekend By Saturday and Sunday, highs will be more "fall-like" in the upper 70s, with dry conditions moving in behind the cold front. I don't know about you, but I am totally looking forward to this incoming cool down.

Heat Advisory issued through Monday evening

 

A HEAT ADVISORY has been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties until 7pm Monday evening. Air temperatures rising through the low to mid 90s, combined with dew points in the upper 60s, have pushed the heat index over 100 degrees in a few locations. 

As of 5pm, those numbers have come down just a bit but it still remains hot. Temperatures through at least Thursday are expected to stay in the low to mid 90s, possibly rising into the upper 90s Wednesday and

Thursday. The good news, if there is any, is that the dew point temperatures may actually be a bit lower which could bring down the heat index temperature just a bit.  

Either way it will be hot and it's important to practice heat safety: drink plenty of water, limit outdoor activity and try to remain in air conditioning as much as possible. If you do need to be outside for prolonged periods of time, take frequent breaks and wear light weight/light colored clothing. Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles, even if for a

short amount of time, and check on those who are elderly or do not have air conditioning.

Summertime Heat Continues, Low Severe Threat Overnight

The new work-week is underway and we've got plenty to talk about weather-wise. As many of you made your way out for the early day drive, you may have been greeted to some low-lying fog. With both dew points and temperatures in the upper 60s early on, the high humidity in the atmosphere created a few patchy areas of fog just in time for the morning commute. Thankfully, the fog wasn't very dense and widespread. But it was definitely one of those commutes where conditions could go from clear to foggy in a matter of seconds. Now with the sun fully up, and temperatures quickly rising, any fog should be quick to dissipate, especially by 8-9 AM. The focus then turns to the hot and humid weather that is likely going to stick around for much of the work-week.

After a sun-filled start to our Monday, a few clouds are expected to bubble up by the afternoon, turning skies partly cloudy. Thanks to the sunshine, and light winds out of the west-southwest, high temperatures will climb into the low 90s during the afternoon, with heat indices approaching the upper 90s. Personally, not my cup of tea. But definitely a day to take advantage of your pool if you have one in your backyard. With that being said, please be sure to have plenty of water on hand if your plans do take you outdoors. Also, it's very important to take frequent breaks in the shade, and to limit strenuous activity during the extreme heat so that you don't overwork your body. 

As far as any rain chances are concerned, model guidance has been backing off the idea of a chance for an isolated shower/t-storm for the late-day hours. However, Monday night brings a better, but still a small threat for a passing shower or thunderstorm, especially north of the Stateline. This is courtesy of a very slow moving frontal boundary that slowly is sagging across Wisconsin. For this, The Storm Prediction Center has placed half the Stateline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. A few of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and even large hail as they track through central and southern Wisconsin.

Hazy skies likely as Western wildfire smoke moves East

Skies may look a little more hazy in the following days as smoke from the wildfires out West continue to move East. Some of that smoke was noted across the Rockies and Plains Sunday afternoon, both from in-state wildfires as well as out-of-state wildfires. We should see that shift a little further east by Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure that has been positioned out west will shift across the Plains Monday into Tuesday. This will cause the winds in the jet stream to switch more from west to east, versus northwest to southeast as they have been through the weekend. The west to east flow will allow more of the smoke from the wildfires to move east towards the Midwest and Great Lakes Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  

Skies will likely look a little more hazy during the afternoon, with more vivid sunrises and sunsets in the next few days. If there is enough smoke in the atmosphere and it sinks down towards the surface, you may actually be able to smell it. The smoke locally might not get that dense, but you’ll definitely notice more haze during the afternoons. Air Quality Alerts have been issued for states such as Colorado, New Mexico and Utah as smoke from both in-state and out-of-state fires impacts the surrounding air.

Large wildfires are becoming increasingly common as the climate continues to warm and drought conditions worsen. Thunderstorms are also to blame for some of the recent fires in California, with additional storms forecast Sunday into Monday. The outflow from those storms could help spread the fire to surrounding areas, but lightning strikes from those storms may also ignite additional ones. The effects from the smoke of wildfires can have significant impacts on the health of many people. Particulate matter pollution of 2.5 micrometers in diameter or less, such as smoke from wildfires, can be very dangerous as it can easily reach deep down into the lungs, triggering or worsening ongoing health problems. The haze and smoke may not get that bad locally this week, but could impact air quality across Illinois and Wisconsin.

The hazy skies will last through the end of the week as the jet stream pattern is expected to change again following a cold front heading into the weekend.

Quiet Friday Ahead, Summer-Like Heat Returns Next Week

Anybody experiencing a deja-vu this week? The only reason I ask is because the forecast for each day has been a carbon copy of the forecast for the previous day. The only difference is, temperatures have been gradually getting warmer as we inched closer to the weekend. Fortunately, we have another pleasant day ahead before more of a summer-like pattern returns for the weekend. And if you really love the summer heat, just wait till you see the forecast highs heading into midweek next week. Me personally, not my cup of tea.

Thankfully, today will remain sun-filled, dry and comfortable. The area of high pressure that currently resides to our east will still be close enough to keep our atmosphere dry for our Friday. Temperatures to start were pleasantly cool this morning, with most areas bottoming out in the 50s to near 60. Despite the crisp start, another day where highs climb into the middle and upper 80s is ahead. Although it will be a warm one this afternoon, dew points will be confined to the upper 50s. So for anyone who has any plans later today, maybe you're planning to go to City Market this evening, the humidity will continue to not be a problem. But that can't be said as we head into this weekend, as a southwesterly wind is going to be with us through much of the weekend. These warmer winds could gust up to 20 mph at times. It's the southerly component to our winds that allow for increased heat and humidity this weekend.

As of today, we have two tropical systems out in the Atlantic basin. Tropical Depression 14 in the southern Caribbean, and Tropical Storm Laura in the western Atlantic. Both are expected to track into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, even making landfall along the Gulf coast. Why is that relevant for the weather here in the Stateline? It's because tropical system give off a lot of heat with their outflow. By early next, a "heat dome" of high pressure is going to expand across the central United States. The clockwise rotation of that ridgr of high pressure will help spread this additional heat across the Midwest, and even into the Stateline. 

Summer-lovers listen up. After a weekend filled with highs in the upper 80s, high temperatures are expected to peak next Tuesday and Wednesday, with forecast highs in the low 90s likely. As i mentioned yesterday, the last 90° day here in Rockford was back on July 26th, where we hit 95°. That is currently the warmest high temperatures of the year, so it's plausible that we could reach or go beyond that again.This significant warm up is expected to continuing into the second half of next week, as highs climb back into the low 90s for Thursday. Models have shown a cold front moving in towards the end of the work week. But, we still have some time to see if that does come into fruition. But happy Friday and have a wonderful weekend!

Abnormall dry conditions expand across the Stateline

The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows drier than normal conditions expanding east to cover Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties. Rainfall during the last two and a half months has been very widespread across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with locations near the Wisconsin/Illinois border receiving most of the rain and areas south of there with only a little. Officially, the rainfall recorded in Rockford during the month of August has been 0.52 inches, with the deficit growing to now a little over two and a half inches.

The months of June, July and August have totaled just over seven inches of rain, but that is still a little more than four inches below our Meteorological Summer average. Any rain chance during the next few days looks to remain few and far between, unfortunately. Friday will be another warm and dry afternoon with temperatures reaching the mid 80s. There is a chance for an isolated shower/storm Saturday into Sunday with the arrival of a cold front, but that front will then lift back north as a warm front Monday afternoon. Warming temperatures, possibly well into the 90s, next week will continue to limit any chance for rain and continue to provide little relief in the dry areas. There may be a better chance for rain late next week as a stronger cold front comes through next Thursday. 

Big temperature range from morning lows to afternoon highs

The diurnal temperature range - the range in temperature from the morning low to afternoon high - has been fairly large this week with lows dipping into the 50s and afternoon highs in the 80s. A big part of that large temperature spread has to do with just how dry our atmosphere has been.

Air molecules in the atmosphere are able to move more freely and warm up more efficiently in the atmosphere when it is dry. The faster the air molecules move, the warmer the temperature. An air mass that has more moisture in it doesn't allow those air molecules to move around as much, leading to a smaller range in temperatures from morning to afternoon - especially the really muggy days.  

Larger diurnal temperature ranges are more typical during the transition seasons of the Spring and Fall months. We'll continue to see the cool mornings and comfortable afternoons through the end of the week but will add in a little more humidity during the weekend and next week as temperatures warm to 90 degrees, if not higher.

Comfortable Weather Continues Ahead of Slow Warm Up

For many across the Stateline, including those that attend Rockford Lutheran, this morning marked the official start of the new school year. Weather-wise, this morning definitely felt like one of those fall-like mornings waiting for the bus at the bus stop. Temperatures overnight, thanks to mostly clear skies and very very light winds at the surface, dropped into the upper 40s in a spot or two. However, most spots ended up in the low 50s, which is the average low temperature for the middle of September. Now, this crisp start is going to lead to another dry and comfortable afternoon across the Stateline, as rain chances remain low until the upcoming weekend. 

"Big bubble, no trouble". That's what my weather director always said when a big area of high pressure would sit over the region. Why is this phrase important? Well, the quiet weather we've had this week is all thanks to this area of high pressure. And it looks like that phrase will hold true for the rest of the work week. After a beautiful afternoon on Tuesday, Wednesday features even more sunshine with the heart of cooler air sitting nearly on top of the Stateline. After this morning's sun-filled start, a few fair weather cumulus clouds will bubble up by the afternoon, with highs climbing into the low 80s. Dew points remain very comfortable for mid-August standards, allowing for a pleasant afternoon for outdoor activities. Conditions remain quiet for tonight, as mostly clear skies will allow for temperatures to bottom out once again, this time into the upper 50s. A return to southerly winds help to pull in slightly warmer temperatures for the back half of the work week. 

So far this week, a dome of high pressure over the southwest United States has trapped the "hottest" air to the west. However, models have been pretty consistent over the last few days showing that ridge expanding eastward a bit in the days to come. This will allow some of that trapped heat to spread eastward, filtering across the Midwest, and then eventually into the Stateline by Friday afternoon. Highs temperatures will climb into the mid 80s tomorrow, but we really won't feel that jump in temperatures until Friday and Saturday. As temperatures climb, so does the humidity. Mugginess is likely, especially by Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Along with the incoming heat and humidity come our next rain chances, especially with that approaching cold front. However, rain chances over the next seven days doesn't look promising.

Heat Out West Tied to Dry Conditions in the Stateline

Death Valley made national news on Sunday as it recorded a preliminary high temperature of 130°F. This is the hottest temperature recorded across the globe since 1931 and the hottest in the U.S. since 1913. This is also the highest temperature ever recorded on Earth in the month of August. Just about the entire country west of the Great Continental Divide is experiencing extreme heat as well. Many areas have recorded 100°-110°+ temperatures since Sunday including triple digit temperatures recorded as far north as Washington state and parts of southern Montana. This excessive heat is the result of a large high pressure system in the upper levels of our atmosphere. While this system brings extreme heat out to the west, it is also responsible for several days of dry, sunny conditions here in the Stateline.

 

This high pressure system aloft has created a large ridge, or an arching shape, in the jet stream over the northwest U.S. Air underneath this ridge compresses and warms causing rapid heating down at the surface. A large trough, or dip, in the jet stream is parked over the Mid-Atlantic leaving the upper Midwest centered right in between the two. In this part of the jet stream on the east side of a ridge and west side of a trough, wind tends to rapidly decelerate and wind particles converge. As they do, air is driven down toward the surface and creates a high pressure system at the surface. High pressure systems tend to bring stable, dry air to an area which limits the development of rainfall and cloud cover. In this case, a very strong, large system of high pressure has developed in the central Plains and is making its way into the Midwest. It will center itself over the Stateline while it continues to push east bringing lots of sunshine and virtually no rain chances through Friday.

This is not the best news considering the Stateline is falling way behind in rainfall for the month. So far this August, through the 17^th, Rockford has fallen 2.88” short of the normal month-to-date rainfall total of 2.60” having only received 0.52” so far. Since meteorological summer began on June 1^st, Rockford is 3.88” shy of the normal amount of rainfall from June 1^st through August 17^th. A good-sized portion of the Stateline is under “abnormally dry conditions” per the National Climate Mitigation Center, though no droughts have been declared in Illinois as of Tuesday morning.