Strong to Severe Storms Possible Ahead of Weekend Cooldown

Summer hasn't been messing around this week, as high temperatures since Sunday have climbed over the 90° mark. This type of extreme heat is something that the Stateline hasn't seen since the beginning of July. We'll have the potential to add another 90° day for the end of the work week, so it would be wise to continue practicing heat safety. But it will also be a great idea to be weather ready this evening, as an approaching cold front will bring the threat for severe weather to the area.

As you woke up this morning, the region remained warm & muggy, but dry as all of the thunderstorm activity had been confined to Central and Southern Wisconsin. Thunderstorm chances for the Stateline begin to increase later on this afternoon and evening, especially between 5PM and 10 PM. As of the latest update from The Storm Prediction Center, the entire forecast area remains under an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather. This category means that if ingredients come together, numerous severe storms will be possible. All severe threats are possible into Friday evening, with strong damaging winds and large hail being the primary concerns. The tornado risk is small, however is non-zero. That means there is the potential for an isolated tornado or two as these storms move through the area.

Now, there are complications with today's severe set-up. Overall, model runs haven't had a good grip on today's severe weather set up all morning. In fact, they didn't have a good handle on things during the evening yesterday either. The ingredients for severe weather however are in place. We'll have a high amount of instability in the atmosphere this afternoon, along with plenty of moisture ahead of the approaching cold front. However, do these ingredients come together is the question? A few obstacles could hinder our severe chances, one of them being the storms that passed through Minnesota this morning and are now approaching the area from the northwest. Current thinking is that this cluster of storms could send out a large outflow boundary (rain cooled air), ahead of the cold front. If this outflow boundary does clip the Stateline, it would effectively cool and stabilize the atmosphere, forcing the cold front south of Interstate 80. When then atmosphere stabilizes, it significantly lowers our chances to see severe weather. So, it's going to be very important to watch the placement of the cold front into this afternoon and see if these morning storms form of an outflow boundary.

As mentioned before, there are a few uncertainties with how this afternoon and evening is going to pan out. Regardless, the possibility of severe weather happening is present and you should be weather ready just in case. Make sure that you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings, whether it be through your programmed weather radio, or watching Eyewitness News, or even by using the First Warn Weather App on your cell phone. Secondly, have your safe place prepared, and your severe weather kit ready to go. In that kit should be extra food, water, clothing, and other essential items that you'll need in case severe weather threatens your area.