Weather Pattern Turns Mild Ahead of Upcoming Winter Storm

Looking Back:

It's incredible to think that it was on this day 3 years ago when the Polar Vortex peaked, allowing Rockford and the state of Illinois to experience it's coldest morning on record. 

Officially, the Rockford Airport fell to -31°, breaking the previous record of -27° set back on January 10th, 1982. The temperature sensor in Mount Carroll fell to a whopping -38°, beating the previous state record of -36° set in Congerville, IL. Fortunately, we're not that EXTREMELY cold this morning. But you may want to be on the lookout for patchy fog if you plan on traveling during the morning commute hours.

Mild Start to the Week:

With temperatures starting off in the single-digits, some of the fog you experience this morning may be in the form of "freezing fog". This may lead to a few slick spots, especially for those that areas experience the thickest fog. Allow for extra time if traveling. The rest of the "last day of January" remains quiet under a partly sunny sky. 

Thanks to a little sunshine and an organized wind out of the south/southeast, highs will peak in the low 30s. This warming trend is expected to continue into Tuesday, with highs climbing close to the 40 degree mark. Tuesday features more cloud cover as our next frontal boundary slides in from the northwest. With a little moisture to work with, a few rain showers will be possible Tuesday afternoon. As temperatures fall behind the frontal passage, we'll eventually see a transition to snow. 

Midweek Winter Storm:

Forecast models continue to show the potential for snow, with the first of two rounds arriving late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This round seems to occur closer to the frontal boundary in central Illinois, with the bigger impacts being felt in areas to the south and east of Rockford. Locally, impacts will be more felt with the second round of snow that looks to move in late Wednesday into the early stages of Thursday. 

Following a brief lull in some of the snow activity, snow showers are expected to redevelop during the afternoon Wednesday. A swath of more moderate to heavy snow will likely fall from central Kansas through central Illinois, where totals could add up to near or over a foot!

As of this morning, the National Weather Service has placed these area under a Winter Storm Watch. As for us, enough moisture does slide north enough to where we'll see a chance for snow showers during this time. However, there will more than likely be a sharp gradient in snow totals across northern Illinois, with portions of extreme NW Illinois seeing little to no snow. Of course, any northward shift in the storm's track will bring higher totals to the area.

With that being said, it's still way too early in the forecasting process to be throwing out snowfall accumulations. Details will become clearer by sometime tomorrow as the storm system inches closer to the western Great Lakes. What I do urge you to do is stay up-to-date with the forecast, and make sure that you get the latest information from reliable sources. Nowadays, it's easy to run into a post on social media from a page that's utilizing the information for the clicks and likes.