Daily T-Storm Chances, Heat Advisory Issued for Tuesday

Stuck in the "Ring of Fire":

You couldn't ask for better weather for the start of the Independence Day weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday featured sunshine from start to finish, with highs landing in the upper 80s. 

However, as we were hinting at late last week, the best rain and thunderstorm potential was unfortunately slated for Independence Day itself and the days that follow. 

This is because we are entering a more active weather pattern that we typically see during the summer month, a pattern we call the "ring of fire". Long story short, a ridge of high pressure sets up over the southern and central plains, placing the jet closer to the U.S/Canadian border. 

The northward adjustment of the jet places the Stateline in the perfect position to receive any cluster of storms that develop at the top of the ridge. In this week's case, this will bring us daily rain opportunities. The tricky part about a forecast like this is the timing as it all depends on what happens earlier in the day, or even what happens in the days prior.

Mother Nature's Fireworks:

The 4th actually starts off on a quiet note, with some sunshine possible early on. By mid to late morning, clouds are expected to increase, with the first round of showers and thunderstorms quick to follow. Guidance places the first round of showers and storms into our region around midday, with storms likely to continue in a scattered fashion, through mid to late afternoon. 

While it looks like the initial round doesn't pose much of a severe threat, that can't be said for the second round. Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center placed the entire region under a Slight Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Now, the timing of the first round is KEY. 

If the thunderstorms slide in earlier, the 2nd round will track in around the time firework shows are to commence. However, if this afternoon's chances are slow to move out, this would likely delay the development of the 2nd round by an hour or two. As mentioned, this round does carry with it a higher chance for strong to severe storms, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall being the biggest concerns. If you have any plans this evening, stay up-to-date with the forecast and keep an eye on that radar! Once this cluster is to our east, conditions simmer down into Tuesday.

Daily T-Storm Chances:  

But just as quick as we are to quiet down, another chance for thunderstorms arrives late-Tuesday. For that, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. Similar to today's threat, damaging straight-line winds, heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two will be the biggest concerns. 

Heat Advisory Issued:

Along with the severe potential does come dangerous heat as a southwesterly wind will place Tuesday's highs in the low to mid 90s. With dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s, allowing the afternoon hours to feel quite oppressive. 

As of this morning, the National Weather Service has placed our western areas, Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside Counties, under a HEAT ADVISORY. This will be in effect from 12PM to 8PM Tuesday as heat indices will more than likely exceed the triple-digit mark. If you can, avoid being outdoors for a prolonged period of time. If you can't drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. Temperatures cool back down to the 80s, with another chance for thunderstorms arriving Wednesday and Thursday.