Heavy rain, strong winds and low-end severe risk Friday and Saturday

 
Cloud cover will continue to increase Thursday evening as a storm system out west gains strength and moves into the Plains. For the third straight day the high temperature reached the low 70s, even though we have had an increase in cloud cover for much of Thursday afternoon. Winds have also been strong, gusting from the south around 35 mph. The strong wind gusts will ease some through the evening but remain around 20 mph overnight. This will help temperatures stay very mild, with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Widely scattered showers are possible Friday morning, becoming a little more widespread mid to late morning as a warm front nears northern Illinois. During that time, south winds could gust as high as 35 mph. As the front moves into southern Wisconsin Friday afternoon, it'll take the majority of the rain with it leaving our skies cloudy, but mostly dry.

A deepening low-pressure system will move into Iowa late Friday night and Saturday morning. As it does, the wind field around the low will significantly increase. This will cause south winds to potentially gust as high as 50 mph both Saturday morning and afternoon. It's likely that at least a wind advisory will be issued for the region. Already wind advisories have been issued just south of the area. 

Waves of heavier rain are expected Friday night and Saturday morning as the cold front comes through. The risk for severe weather is low area wide, but with the position of the warm front in southern Wisconsin, the cold front in northern Illinois, and the surface low in northeast Iowa it is possible that a strong shower/isolated storm could occur in southern Wisconsin. There is also a low-end risk for a quick spin up tornado if any of the linear showers begin to surge forward. The timing of that severe threat would be early Saturday morning, possibly before the sun comes up. Even though it is a low-end risk, it's important to make sure you remain aware of the weather and have a way to receive warnings, should they be issued. 

A drier afternoon is expected once the cold front passes Saturday. Temperatures Friday night remain in the 60s but will drop behind the cold front Saturday afternoon down into the low 50s. The quick change in pressure, followed by the strong arrival of cold air, will keep the strong winds during the afternoon.

Rainfall amounts will range across the Stateline, from west to east, between 0.50 inches to 2.50", with the higher totals occurring over northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin.